In the hushed conversations in Harare's queues for fuel, in the stifled anger of a teacher paid in a currency that can't buy a week's groceries, and in the weary analysis of international observers, a single, persistent refrain echoes: it is only a matter of time for President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his cabal.
This phrase is more than a hopeful whisper from the opposition; it is a political diagnosis. It is the conclusion drawn from observing a regime that has perfected the art of survival but has utterly failed at the business of governance. The question is no longer if this structure will fall, but when and how.
The Broken Promise of a "New Dawn"
When President Emmerson "The Crocodile" Mnangagwa wrested power from Former President Robert Mugabe in a November 2017 military-assisted coup, he did so on a wave of euphoria. The strongman of the old guard miraculously rebranded himself as a reformer. The world heard promises of democracy, economic liberalization, and a nation "open for business."
Six years on, that new dawn has given way to a darker, more familiar twilight. The economic indicators read like a disaster script. The Zimbabwean dollar is a ghost currency, repeatedly resurrected in new forms—most recently the ZiG—only to be rejected by a deeply traumatized populace. Hyperinflation has returned, erasing savings and pushing formal employment into the realm of memory. The nation survives on remittances and a vast informal sector, a testament to the state’s abject failure.
The Pillars of Implosion
Why is the end considered inevitable? The foundations of the Mnangagwa regime are not just cracking; they are actively crumbling under the weight of their own corruption and incompetence.
- Economic Freefall:A government’s most basic contract with its citizens is to ensure a functioning economy. Mnangagwa’s has broken this contract completely. Industry has collapsed, public infrastructure is in a state of decay, and the central bank’s financial engineering is viewed as little more than a confidence trick. When a population has nothing left to lose, the calculus of fear that keeps an authoritarian regime in power begins to shift.
- The Corruption Engine:In Zimbabwe, corruption is not a side effect; it is the system’s core function. The term "state capture" is apt. From the looting of the country’ vast mineral wealth—diamonds, gold, and lithium—to the crooked awarding of government contracts, the ruling cabal operates a sophisticated kleptocracy. This elite enrichment continues in brazen defiance while nurses and soldiers struggle to feed their families, creating a powder keg of public rage.
- The Iron Fist and Its Limits:Lacking performance legitimacy, the regime relies on coercion. The 2018 and 2023 elections were widely condemned as shams. Opposition figures are routinely arrested, abducted, or silenced. Protests are met with brutal, military-grade violence.
Yet, repression is a costly strategy. It requires a loyal and paid security apparatus. As the economic crisis deepens, the state’s ability to buy the loyalty of the army, police, and central intelligence organ—the very pillars of the cabal—becomes increasingly strained. A day may come when the money to pay them runs out, and with it, their loyalty.
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The Forms of an Inevitable End
So, what does "a matter of time" actually look like? Analysts point to several potential catalysts for the regime’s demise:
- The People’s Breaking Point: A sudden trigger—a sharp hike in fuel prices, the collapse of a bank, a final stolen election—could spark an uprising too widespread for the security forces to contain. The success of this scenario hinges on whether parts of the military would refuse to fire on their own people.
- The Palace Coup: The most likely scenario, many believe. ZANU-PF is a nest of factions. As resources shrink, the internal fighting will intensify. A rival faction within the party or security sector could move to sacrifice Mnangagwa, blaming him for the national crisis, and install a new leader in a bid to preserve the system itself.
- Total Economic Collapse: The state could simply cease to function. When it can no longer pay salaries, provide basic utilities, or import essential goods, the authority of the government evaporates, leading to a chaotic and unpredictable unravelling.
The Stubbornness of Time
While the end seems inevitable, "a matter of time" could still mean a long, painful period of stagnation. The cabal’s will to power is strong, its control over the instruments of violence is still firm, and the political opposition remains fragmented.
The international community, particularly regional body SADC, has been criticized for its timid approach, offering little more than gentle criticism despite overwhelming evidence of electoral theft and human rights abuses.
Yet, history shows that regimes built solely on theft and force are ultimately transient. They create the conditions of their own destruction. Emmerson Mnangagwa and his cabal, blinded by power and privilege, seem to believe they are the masters of time. But in the eyes of a suffering nation, they are merely its prisoners, waiting for the clock to run out.
- Dumisani Nyathi is a Zimbabwean based in the Diaspora. He writes in his personal capacity.
