FINANCIAL services firm, IH Securities expects crop yields to be upward trending, as the country’s increased rainfall for the current season is also expected for the fast-approaching 2025/26 agricultural period.
Higher crop yields were already expected for the current ending season owing to better rainfall from a La Niña-induced weather phenomenon, a better performance compared to last year’s El Niño-induced drought.
In its new 2025 Zimbabwe Agriculture Sector Report, IH Securities said the La Niña weather pattern had brought more positive rainfalls in the 2024/25 farming season, which saw various sectors such as the dairy, tobacco and food security crop production, posting significant gains.
“We expect the weather to continue on this path as the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof) released its 31st statement forecasting normal to above normal rainfall. We also expect yields to be upward trending for most crops, though imports may still be necessary for crops such as soya beans to meet national demand,” IH Securities said.
“Input and regulatory prices remain elevated, with energy and fertiliser costs being high though the recent review on dairy farming regulations, including the abolition of various excess licenses and fees will provide ease.
“Our view is that the government will continue to implement initiatives to streamline regulatory bottlenecks and reduce costs encouraging higher production.”
Sarcof had released its 31st statement forecasting normal to above-normal rainfall for the 2025/26 rainfall season.
Based on this, most of the country is expected to have above-normal rainfall except for the further parts of the Matabeleland North region between October 2025 and January 2026.
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“It also stated that temperatures are likely going to be higher than long-term averages. The typical lean season spans from November to February.
“For the 2025/26 season, a delayed onset of the lean season is expected in most areas as household food stocks are likely to last longer than normal due to the favourable 2025 harvest,” IH Securities said.
“Following an amenable 2024/25 rainfall season and improved water availability, households are expected to increase income-generating activities through December 2025, including selling surplus food crops and resale of food crops by traders.”
These weather forecasts have improved maize output projections for the current season heading into the 2025/26 period.
According to IH Securities, over the past three farming seasons there has been a shift in maize production as the area under cultivation grew to an average of 1,8 million hectares annually from 0,87 million hectares.
“Area planted for the 2024/25 season was 1,96 million hectares, a 3% increase to the prior year. However, depressed yields continue to hamstring local production at a five-year average of 0,8 t/ha [tonne per hectare] versus regional averages of 2,5t/ha,” IH Securities said.
“Maize production in the current season is, however, forecasted at 2,3 million tonnes, with the country expected to achieve self-sufficiency in the period. The government has notified of intention to export 40 000t of grain to East Africa signalling the resumption of grain exports by the country.”
Producer pricing for white maize in the season was set at US$335 — with US$135 of it payable at interbank.
“Prices have also seen a significant upward revision, and according to the Food Security Monitor by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), Zimbabwe recorded the highest maize price in the region at US$872/MT (metric tonne) in comparison to close regional peers, whose prices hovered around the US$600/MT mark Towards the end of the 2024/25 season, the government imposed an import ban on maize, affecting countries such as South Africa, who exported about 540 000t to the country,” IH Securities said.
“This was due to the estimates that Zimbabwe had exceeded its national requirement of 2,2 million despite the World Food Programme estimating that the country would miss its production targets by 10%-15% in its March situation report. Recently, the government suggested a planning price of US$380 for the 2025/26 season, up from US$376 in the previous season.”
This is expected to lead to upward revisions in price of about 12% to US$7,50 for a 10kg bag of roller meal.
In terms of livestock, beef output rose 5% year-on-year to reach 94 600t in 2024, and this exceeded the Livestock Recovery Growth Plan’s targeted annual beef production of 90 000t.
This was the result of slaughtering 393 769 cattle in 2024 compared to 360 000 the year prior.
“The national beef cattle herd had a growth of 0,5% in 2024 to 5,74 million from 5,71 million in 2023. Communal farmers led ownership, having 3,70 million,” IH Securities said.
