The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net) has warned that rising fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East are eroding household purchasing power in Zimbabwe, threatening access to food and markets.
The network says higher production and freight costs, coupled with supply chain disruptions associated with the crisis, could drive further increases in the prices of both food and non-food commodities in the coming months.
The warning comes as households continue to grapple with elevated fuel and transport costs, which reduce disposable incomes and tighten access to essential goods and services. Although inflation has shown some moderation in recent months, Fews Net cautions that external shocks from global energy markets are likely to sustain cost pressures, particularly for vulnerable and rural households.
The Middle East conflict has already pushed up global fuel prices and disrupted shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil trade. This has resulted in higher fuel costs worldwide, with knock-on effects in importing countries such as Zimbabwe.
“Fuel price and transport fare increases driven by the conflict in the Middle East continue to negatively impact poor households’ livelihoods, disposable income, and access to markets,” Fews Net said in its latest food security report.
“Despite relative stability in the prices of some basic food and non-food commodities, increases in production and freight costs and some commodity supply disruptions will likely push price increases for some commodities in the near term.”
According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency, monthly inflation for May declined slightly in both the ZiG (0,5%) and US dollar (0,3%) categories, down by 0,6 and 0,8 percentage points, respectively, from April.
Fuel prices initially rose to US$2,05 and US$2,17 per litre for diesel and petrol, respectively, from US$1,77 and US$1,71. They later climbed further to US$2,11 and US$2,23 before easing slightly to US$2,09 for diesel and US$2,08 for petrol.
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Despite the recent marginal decline, fuel remains expensive for consumers.
While external fuel pressures remain a concern, Fews Net noted that Zimbabwe’s overall food security situation is being supported by improved harvests and above-average water availability for winter cropping.
“Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through September 2026 in deficit-producing areas as the April to June main crop harvest progresses,” Fews Net said.
“Households in these areas are accessing food from their own harvests, despite localised impacts from excessive rainfall and prolonged dry spells during the November 2025 to March 2026 rainy season.”
However, the agency warned that many households continue to face limited cash incomes due to below-average access to casual labour, livestock sales, wild produce such as mopane worms, and remittances, limiting their ability to meet essential non-food needs.
