So, Zimbabwe’s fears have now been unequivocally confirmed. Zanu PF has declared it is pushing ahead with elections this year, no matter what.
The country should brace itself for nothing less than the forgettable June 2008 because Zanu PF would need those conditions to prevail.
That Sadc or the AU or any other body, could try to get the former ruling party to see reason, that it is not possible to hold elections at this time, should be a dream that must remain a dream.
The people must start getting used to the dreadful reality that Zanu PF is determined and is likely to succeed to throw the country back into the political and economic black hole.
In fact, what people should expect to start seeing within the next few weeks is a vicious campaign of violence, accompanied by visible signs of economic collapse like food shortages.
The violence has already started, but the declaration of an election will no doubt further inflame it.
The prevailing conditions in Zimbabwe are clearly not conducive for a free and fair election. The country has over the past two years been working to create a roadmap towards credible elections and we were almost there.
Zimbabwe needs a new constitution, along with a clean voters’ roll, a credible electoral commission, agreeable electoral reforms, a stable economy, political stability and peace in order to start talking of an election.
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Much as the country may be desperate to get out of this difficult coalition governance and to give the mandate to one legitimate government, no amount of anxiety warrants the kind of reckless arrogance that Zanu PF has displayed.
Elections in Zimbabwe have become synonymous with violence, death and untold misery. Every Zimbabwean, including Rugare Gumbo and the entire Zanu PF politburo and its chairman President Robert Mugabe, know this.
An endeavour to prevent this bloodshed and gloom was close to bearing fruit, but suddenly, Zanu PF wrecked it all, the only reason available being they know they can no longer win a free and fair poll.
But there are scenarios that Zanu PF ought not to ignore or take for granted. The two main political contenders in the country, the two MDCs, may decide, as they should, not to be part of a flawed process that can only lead to people being brutalised and killed and at the end produce a contested outcome.
Will Zanu PF play the 2008 prank and run the race alone? If they do, like they seem to have decided to do with the constitution-making process, who would even want to listen to the result, let alone consider them for legitimacy?
Zanu PF’s decision to spit at Zuma and Sadc’s face is likely to leave it more isolated and without the critical support that it has leaned on in the past.
At the moment, of the 15 Sadc states, only seven are still aligned to Zanu PF: Angola, the DRC, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland and Tanzania.
Another seven have turned their backs on Mugabe. They are Botswana, Lesotho, South Africa, Mauritius, Seychelles and Zambia. Madagascar still sits on the fence.
For Zanu PF to bulldoze Zimbabwe into a violent election and later on call on the region to resolve the resultant inevitable dispute is foolhardy. It may at best divide Sadc, but what is most likely is that Zanu PF may find itself in trouble, in fact worse, pulverised.
Once again we warn: Zanu PF is shooting itself in the foot by forcing Zimbabweans into a bloody election!
