A simmering power struggle between President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his deputy, Constantino Chiwenga, is intensifying behind the scenes, threatening to paralyze governance and destabilize the nation, according to senior officials and political analysts.
Despite public displays of unity, multiple sources within the ruling ZANU-PF party and security apparatus describe a relationship frayed by mutual suspicion and competing ambitions. The tension, rooted in the 2017 military coup that brought them to power, has escalated into a cold war over control of the state, the economy, and the party's future.
A Fractured Foundation
The alliance between Mnangagwa, the veteran politician, and Chiwenga, the former military commander, was always one of convenience. In 2017, Chiwenga’s guns secured Mnangagwa’s seat in the State House. Now, the central, unresolved question is who truly holds the reins of power.
"Their pact was transactional, not ideological," says Dr. Tendai Muropa, a political analyst based in Harare. "The transaction—the removal of Mugabe—is complete. What we are witnessing now is the inevitable unravelling of that pact. The President is trying to consolidate civilian authority, while the Vice President represents a powerful military constituency that expects a return on its investment."
Flashpoints of Conflict
Interviews with insiders point to several critical areas of friction:
- The Battle for ZANU-PF:Mnangagwa has systematically appointed loyalists to key party and ministerial positions, a move widely seen as an effort to dilute Chiwenga's influence. In response, the Vice President’s camp, heavily populated by former military figures, has dug in, creating a powerful bloc within the government.
- Economic Cartels and Patronage:The most intense fighting is occurring in the shadows of the economy. Intelligence reports and financial investigations suggest the two leaders are patrons of rival cartels fighting for control of lucrative gold and mineral exports. "The fights you see in the goldfields or over foreign currency allocations are often just proxies for the larger political war," a senior civil servant, who spoke on condition of anonymity, revealed.
- The Succession Question:With Mnangagwa at 81, the issue of succession is no longer theoretical. While Chiwenga is the constitutional deputy, there is a strong belief within Mnangagwa's inner circle that he must be prevented from taking power. "The ‘Old Man’s’ camp fears a Chiwenga presidency would mean a wholesale purge of their faction," a ZANU-PF MP confided.
- Security Sector Loyalties:Last year's arrests over an alleged "coup plot" were viewed by many security analysts as a strategic warning shot. "The message was clear: loyalty to the President must be absolute, even if it means sidelining those with long-standing ties to the Vice President," noted a retired army colonel.
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Publicly, both leaders dismiss any notion of a rift. At a recent state function, Mnangagwa called for "unity of purpose." Privately, however, the atmosphere is described as frosty. Aides report meticulously separate schedules and a noticeable lack of direct, informal communication between the two.
"The body language tells you everything you need to know," said a journalist who regularly covers state events. "They stand apart, they don't look at each other, the applause is perfunctory. It’s a performance of unity that no one in the corridors of power believes."
Implications for Zimbabwe
The consequences of this power struggle are already being felt. Policy initiatives are stalled as ministries wait to see which faction will prevail. International investors, wary of the instability, remain hesitant. The infighting consumes the energy of a state apparatus that should be tackling a severe economic crisis.
"The nation is effectively being run by two competing centres of power," warns Dr. Muropa. "This leads to paralysis, policy inconsistency, and an environment where corruption thrives. Ultimately, the biggest casualty is the Zimbabwean people, who are left with a government too preoccupied with its own internal wars to govern effectively."
As the standoff continues, the question hanging over Harare is not if the situation will be resolved, but how. The fear among diplomats and observers is that the current cold war could turn hot, leading to a more dramatic and potentially violent confrontation that would plunge the nation into deeper uncertainty.
- Henry Itayi Makambe is a Zimbabwean based in the Diaspora. He writes in his personal capacity.
