China’s birth count registered a historic low last year, according to the latest official data, which underlines the failure of the ongoing accelerated family-support policy and childcare subsidies. It is going to reshape the country’s economy, job market and social impact in the decades ahead.
China recorded just 7.92 million births, a 17 per cent drop from 9.54 million the previous year, and the lowest figure since 1949. Compared with the 2016 peak, the number of babies born has more than halved in less than a decade, an extraordinary reversal for a nation that long struggled with overpopulation.
While the overall population fell by 3.39 million to 1.4049 billion, the steepest annual decline on record outside the famine years of 1959–61. Meanwhile, deaths rose to 11.31 million, one of the highest tallies in five decades, reflecting both an ageing society and the lingering demographic imbalance created by decades of restrictive family planning.
Chinese experts are concerned that what is striking is not just the scale of the decline, but its persistence. China’s contraction is driven by deeper social and economic forces, unlike countries experiencing sudden shocks such as war or pandemics. A bigger concern is that the young people are marrying later or not at all, while rising living costs, housing insecurity, and intense workplace competition are making parenthood less appealing. For women, in particular, the perceived career penalty of having children remains a powerful deterrent.
Demographers argue that this should be a wake-up call for Beijing. A shrinking and ageing population threatens long-term productivity, strains the pension system, and risks eroding China’s consumer base at a time when the leadership is trying to pivot toward domestic demand-led growth.
Recognising the gravity of the problem, Beijing has stepped up its pronatalist push over the past year. The centrepiece is a national childcare subsidy of up to 10,800 yuan (US$1,534) per child under three, the most significant family-support measure since the shift to a three-child policy in 2021. Authorities across states have also pledged to expand insurance coverage for childbirth-related expenses and to tighten regulation of the childcare sector.
Yet money alone may not be enough. Cultural attitudes toward marriage and childbearing are changing, and financial incentives have historically had limited impact on fertility rates in urban China. This is evident in the sharp drop in marriages in 2024, 6.106 million registrations, down over 20 per cent, the lowest since 1980. Since marriage remains a key precursor to childbirth in China, this decline foreshadowed the birth slump in 2025.
There are tentative signs of a rebound in marriage. Registrations rose 8.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2025, and some major cities reported sizeable increases, Shanghai up 38.7 per cent, Fujian up 12 per cent. The China Population Association estimates total marriages for 2025 at around 6.9 million, projecting that births in 2026 could edge above 8 million.Beijing has also moved on the institutional front, making marriage registration easier while tightening divorce procedures, a bid to encourage family stability and earlier childbearing. But such measures risk being seen as paternalistic rather than addressing the underlying economic anxieties of young couples.
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However, the number of women of childbearing age is shrinking, fertility intentions remain weak, and parenthood is being delayed. Without far more comprehensive support, affordable housing, better work-life balance, gender-equal employment practices, and reliable childcare, policy tweaks may only slow, not reverse, the demographic slide.
China is not just getting smaller; it is getting older, faster. How Beijing manages this transition will shape its economic resilience, social cohesion, and global standing in the years to come.
