HARARE, May 7 (NewsDay Live) - Zimbabwe's economy ended 2025 with a GDP figure that, at first sight, looks extraordinary.
The country's quarterly output at current prices crossed ZiG 448 billion in Q4 2025 nearly triple the ZiG 142 billion recorded in Q1 2024.
But peel back the headline numbers and a more sobering story emerges from the constant-price tables, real, inflation adjusted growth for the full year averaged in the single digits to low double digits, while the prices used to value that output increased by a factor of roughly twenty compared to the 2023 base year.
That gap between what Zimbabwe produced and what that production was priced at is the central tension in the country's latest national accounts data.
The Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency was introduced in April 2024, replacing the RTGS.
ZimStat's GDP series, rebased to 2023 prices, provides the only reliable lens through which to strip out price distortions and measure true economic volume.
In 2023, the deflator went near 100 (the base). By Q1 2024, it had already surged to 850. By Q4 2025, it reached 2,347 meaning the same unit of real output that cost ZiG 100 in 2023 was being recorded at ZWG 2,347 in nominal terms by year-end 2025.
In other words, roughly 95 cents of every ZiG in Zimbabwe's 2025 nominal GDP figures reflects price increases, not new production.
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A handful of sectors drove the real growth that does exist, and they deserve scrutiny for what they reveal about Zimbabwe's structural story.
Agriculture was the standout performer of 2025, recording real year-on-year growth of 5.9% in Q1, accelerating to 31.2% in Q2, peaking at a striking 49.9% in Q3, before moderating to 25.2% in Q4.
This recovery follows deeply negative growth in 2024 (Q3 2024 contracted 34% year-on-year), suggesting the sector is rebounding from drought-induced losses rather than breaking into a new growth trajectory.
The agricultural bounce provided the single biggest real-volume contribution to the mid-year acceleration.
Transportation and Storage posted exceptional real growth in the first half 33.6% in Q1 and 21.7% in Q2 before slowing sharply to 4.4% and 8.6% in the second half. This pattern mirrors the agriculture rebound: more goods moving through the supply chain as farm output recovered.
Information and communication recorded steady and accelerating real growth throughout the year: 7.5%, 11.5%, 8.7%, and 14.6% across the four quarters.
This is among the most credible and structurally meaningful growth signals in the data a sector expanding in volume driven by rising demand for digital services, mobile connectivity, and fintech, not merely price effects.
Construction had a rollercoaster year contracting in real terms in Q1 (−6.3%) and Q2 (−0.3%), before surging to 26.4% in Q3 and 15.9% in Q4.
The second-half rebound may reflect delayed infrastructure and private sector projects moving forward as the ZiG stabilised.
Electricity grew solidly 7.5% in Q1, a significant 31.2% in Q2, and 13.6% and 8.5% in the second half suggesting some improvement in power generation or distribution capacity, though the base effects from prior-year shortfalls are likely at play.
The constant-price data exposes sectors where even nominal ZiG growth masked a shrinking real footprint.
Water supply, sewerage and waste management contracted in real terms for the entire year: −22.1%, −21.9%, −3.4%, and −6.1% across Q1 through Q4.
This is a significant and alarming signal. A country cannot sustain broad-based real growth while its water and sanitation infrastructure is shrinking in volume.
This sector's real decline likely reflects chronic underinvestment and deteriorating service delivery rather than a statistical anomaly.
Mining and quarrying historically one of Zimbabwe's most important real-value generators contracted sharply in Q1 2025 (−6.9%) before recovering strongly in Q2 (24.3%) and Q3 (17.2%), then slowing again to 5.9% in Q4.
The volatility reflects a sector buffeted by commodity price movements, power supply disruptions, and operational constraints rather than steady capacity expansion.
Large wrap of the economy posted real growth, but at rates so modest they barely kept pace with population growth.
Wholesale and retail trade the sector that most directly reflects household consumption grew just 3.7%, 1.4%, 1.7%, and 1.3% in real terms across the four quarters of 2025. For an economy with a growing population, this is effectively flat in per-capita terms.Manufacturing did better, recording real growth of 1.1%, 4.6%, 6.9%, and 6.2% through the year.
The trend is positive the sector appears to be gaining modest production momentum but the Q1 figure underscores how fragile the base still is.
Financial and insurance activities expanded in real volume by 8.8%, 11.7%, 6.5%, and 8.2% a consistent performer, though one that partly reflects the financialisation of an economy where the formal sector navigates currency complexity.
Perhaps the most damning set of numbers in ZimStat's release are the implied sector-level deflators.
By Q4 2025, virtually every sector of the economy carried a deflator above 1,700 meaning nominal ZiG values were inflated to that multiple versus the 2023 base.
Accommodation and food services topped the list with a deflator of 5,759 by Q4 the prices used to value that sector's output were nearly 58 times their 2023 level.
Human health and social work carried a deflator of 4 224. Agriculture reached 1 747. Even the relatively stable Mining and Quarrying sector stood at 2 772.
These are not figures consistent with a currency that has achieved price stability. For ZiG to fulfil its mandate as a stable store of value, deflators anchored to 2023 should have remained close to 100 over the period or at most drifted gradually.
The data suggests that, notwithstanding the official exchange rate regime, de facto pricing in the Zimbabwean economy continued to detach sharply from the ZiG's face value.
However, real economic activity did expand in 2025 the agriculture rebound, the ICT sector's genuine volume growth, and the second-half construction recovery are meaningful.
The real GDP growth rate of 7% to 11% in the middle quarters of 2025 is, if sustained, a genuine improvement on the near-stagnation of early 2024.
But three structural concerns stand out from the constant-price data.
First, the sectors producing real volume growth are either commodity-driven and weather-dependent (agriculture) or still small relative to the economy's needs (ICT).
Second, the sectors that should anchor broad-based prosperity retail trade, manufacturing, water infrastructure are either flat or actively contracting in real terms.
Third, the deflator trajectory makes clear that the ZiG has not yet functioned as the inflation anchor its architects intended.
The numbers in Table 1.5 show an economy capable of growth. What they do not yet show is an economy that has escaped the inflationary dynamics that have defined Zimbabwe's last two decades.
Until the deflator falls back toward its base, the real GDP story will remain the one buried in the footnotes while the nominal headline does the talking.
