Zimbabwe’s exports reached $2,5 billion in 2010, the highest annual total on record since 2000. World Trade Organisation estimates for 2011 have been pegged at just under $3 billion. At face value, this represents a renaissance of some sort. However, such statistics mask deep rooted problems.
For instance, while Zimbabwean exports grew by 50% between 2003 and 2010, world exports more than doubled over the same period. It is no surprise that our current export levels put us in the same category with some not-so-glamorous nations including Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Afghanistan. Additionally, imports have continued to outstrip exports resulting in a widening and potentially detrimental trade deficit.
However, it is encouraging to note that there is heightened motivation among captains of industry and policymakers about crafting ways to improve Zimbabwe’s export performance. Zimbabwe’s easy fix has entailed developing a voluminous national export policy framework.
For the second time in the last six years, Zimbabwe has developed another roadmap for export growth.
Under the auspices of the Industry and International Trade ministry, Zimbabwe issued a comprehensive five-year export strategy which ran its course at the end of 2010. The goal was to invigorate an ailing export sector against the backdrop of crippling economic slowdown.
Fast-forward to April 2012 and there is another policy framework for export development. Zimbabwe joins an endless list of nations (including Cambodia, Canada, China, Jamaica, Malawi, Sierra Leone and the US) that have over the past decade established specific policies to kindle macro and micro-level export activity.
The popularity of such national endeavours appears to reinforce the importance of the tradable sector in an increasingly integrated world. But how crucial is a national export strategy (NES) to export success? My personal take is simple. Unless we create the prerequisites for export success, an NES for Zimbabwe is just as valuable as a GPS device on a scotchcart. Here is why.
There are three principal preconditions or drivers of export success and evidently an NES is not one of them. In most nations, export success arises from a combination of aggregate level advantages, macro-level policies and firm-level exploits.
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Zimbabwe’s advantages obviously arise from natural resources, in particular the arable agricultural land and mineral deposits.
Yet policymaking in Zimbabwe appears blind to this reality. The mistake we have made as a nation is not realising that aggregate level advantages are perishable. Aggregate-level advantages inherent in farming and mining have been ruined by the need for short-term political gains at the expense of long-term socio-economic competitiveness.
In all fairness, where is our export sector headed if we cannot setup viable agricultural and mining operations?
Sound macro-level policies are another fundamental precondition of export success. Such policies are vital for three reasons.
Firstly, they provide a vehicle for leveraging (and not destroying) the areas from which aggregate level advantages emanate. Secondly, they help create a co-operative or supportive environment in which export activity can flourish. Thirdly and perhaps more importantly, they contribute towards creating a favourable image of the country internationally.
Zimbabwe suffers from a plethora of image problems. I do blame the Western media to a point for unbalanced reporting, characterised by a disproportionate number of images projecting abject poverty, drought, disease and violence.
Zimbabwe for its own part continues to be counted among the very worst in the realm of country risk, corruption, human development and economic freedoms. Yet as a nation, we have an opportunity to alter this perception through addressing these issues in the local economy and also projecting a more favourable appearance. In the era of “nation branding” if the country itself does not constitute a marketable brand, one might as well forget about the individual exporters.
For the record, I have links to several business leaders in the Pacific region and the consensus among them is that Zimbabwe is still not open for business.
Finally, firm-level capabilities and activities provide the last piece to the export development puzzle. In the absence of distinct and well-guarded national advantages and macro-level policies to complement such advantages, firm-level export capabilities and activities are rather limited. Attesting to the limitations in firm-level activity is that both historically and presently, half of Zimbabwe’s exports go south of the border. Additionally, not many Zimbabwean exporters have the wherewithal to export beyond the Southern African economic bloc.
In many parts of the world real export success is partly driven by a core group of enterprising firms and individuals who have comprehensive understanding of global markets, can sense or create opportunities and have high entrepreneurial marketing acumen.
Dr Eldrede T Kahiya is an academic based in Wellington, New Zealand [email protected]
