BULAWAYO, Jan. 5 (NewsDay Live) – Bulawayo’s water supply outlook has improved compared to last year, but official figures show the city remains vulnerable to prolonged water shortages without strong inflows in the coming months.
According to the latest City of Bulawayo Dam Watch report dated 29 December 2025, the city’s six operational dams are collectively 41.89% full, a significant improvement from 25.89% recorded during the same period in 2024. The nearly 16-percentage-point rise has eased fears of an immediate supply collapse that dominated the final months of last year.
However, the data also highlights a persistent and familiar problem for the city, that the rainy season has not translated into meaningful inflows.
One dam risk
Bulawayo’s improved position is being driven largely by Mtshabezi Dam, which is now 86.17% full, up sharply from 49.04 percent in December 2024. Mtshabezi has effectively become the backbone of the city’s water security, compensating for weaker performance across the rest of the system.
Other dams, while showing improvement, remain below optimal operating levels. Insiza Mayfair stands at 45.82%, Lower Ncema at 44.64%, and Upper Ncema at 34.76%. Umzingwane Dam is 27.38% full, while Inyankuni, historically one of Bulawayo’s weakest sources, remains critically low at 16.37%, only marginally better than last year.
With the exception of Mtshabezi, none of the city’s dams is above the halfway mark, underscoring how uneven the rainy season has been.
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More concerning is the inflow data. Despite the rainy season having started in October 2025, Bulawayo reports that no inflows were recorded across all dams on 28 December 2025.
Since the first inflows were recorded on 21 October, overall dam levels have increased by just 6.51%, equivalent to approximately 27 million cubic metres of water. This is modest when measured against the city’s total dam capacity of more than 414 million cubic metres.
The figures suggest that while rainfall has occurred, it has not produced sustained runoff into the city’s reservoirs. Dry catchments, uneven rainfall distribution and high evaporation rates are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of the rainy season.
At 41.89%, Bulawayo’s dams are better positioned than they were a year ago, but still well below levels considered safe for a large urban centre with limited alternative water sources.
The city’s reliance on Mtshabezi also presents a structural risk. Any disruption or underperformance at the dam would immediately expose weaknesses elsewhere in the system, particularly given Inyankuni’s continued low contribution.
The January rain hope
Unless January and February deliver consistent, system-wide inflows, water rationing is likely to persist, with little room for operational flexibility. The modest rise in storage offers a buffer, but not long-term security.
The latest dam statistics point to cautious relief rather than confidence. Bulawayo has stepped back from the edge it faced in late 2024, but the city remains trapped in a cycle of managing scarcity rather than achieving resilience.
Without sustained inflows, the current recovery risks being temporary. As the figures show, storage alone is not enough. For Bulawayo, real water security still depends on rains that not only fall, but flow.
