Latest external trade data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency makes for unusually intriguing reading. Public scepticism around official economic data has been palpable, while living conditions for millions remain stubbornly harsh.
This means any positive data point demands careful scrutiny rather than uncritical celebration.
That caution is necessary. Statistics matter only insofar as they translate into improved livelihoods, rising incomes, and a discernible easing of daily pressures on households and businesses.
On that front, Zimbabweans have yet to feel meaningful relief. Still, it would be intellectually dishonest to ignore what the trade data is telling us.
External trade figures for November marked a moment that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago. A record trade surplus of US$91 million, up sharply from US$29 million in October, represented the largest month-on-month surplus ever recorded.
More significantly, it sealed Zimbabwe’s first run of consecutive monthly trade surpluses, according to an analysis by Equity Axis. For an economy long characterised by chronic and structural trade deficits, this was a notable break with the past.
The importance of November’s outcome lies not in the headline number, but in what it signals about a shifting external position. Zimbabwe has recorded only four month-on-month trade surpluses since November 2020, according to Equity Axis’ analysis.
That three of them occurred in 2025, with two back-to-back, suggests something more than statistical noise may be underway. Yet a deeper interrogation of the data shows while the trajectory has improved, the foundations of this adjustment remain fragile.
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Exports rose marginally in November to US$1,046 billion, sustaining elevated levels achieved in October. While the month-on-month increase appears modest, the absolute value is structurally significant.
October and November were the only months in 2025 in which exports exceeded the US$1 billion threshold, well above the annual average of US$776 million. This points to a change in export capacity — but one that was heavily concentrated in the final quarter of the year.
It is in the composition of export growth that the caution lights begin to flash. November’s improvement was driven by exceptional performances in a narrow set of commodities. Tobacco exports surged 64% month-on-month to US$96,48 million, while nickel mattes rose 39% to US$177,88 million. These gains offset declines across most of Zimbabwe’s major export categories, highlighting how thin the margin of resilience remains.
Mining continued to dominate the export basket. Gold alone contributed US$443,30 million in November, despite an 8% month-on-month decline in value. Crucially, this decline occurred even as gold deliveries reached 41,79 tonnes by November, surpassing the annual target with a month to spare. The divergence between volumes and values underscores a persistent vulnerability — export earnings remain highly exposed to international commodity price movements over which Zimbabwe has no control.
In this context, the record trade surplus owes as much to import compression as it does to export strength. Tight domestic demand, constrained liquidity, and cautious consumer and industrial spending have restrained imports, mechanically improving the trade balance. While this supports near-term external stability, it is not a growth-optimised path. A surplus built on suppressed imports rather than diversified, value-adding exports is inherently fragile.
The policy challenge now is clear. Zimbabwe must convert episodic trade surpluses into a durable structural feature of the economy. This requires moving decisively beyond reliance on a handful of primary commodities. Value addition must shift from rhetoric to execution, particularly in mineral beneficiation, agro-processing, and downstream manufacturing linked to existing export strengths. Tobacco, gold, and nickel should anchor broader industrial ecosystems, not exist as standalone export lines.
Equally critical is export seasonality. The clustering of export earnings in the final quarter exposes the economy to volatility and weakens planning certainty. Smoothing export flows across the year will require sustained improvements in logistics, energy reliability, and access to working capital for exporters, especially outside the mining sector.
