ZIMBABWE could face a severe food security crisis if escalating tensions in the Middle East trigger prolonged disruptions in global fertiliser markets, potentially cutting national maize production by as much as 80%, according to a new report by economic think-tank Africa Economic Development Strategies (AEDS).
The warning, contained in the latest Zimbabwe Economic Pulse Report, highlights the country’s heavy dependence on imported agricultural inputs and exposes the risks that geopolitical conflicts pose to Zimbabwe’s economic recovery strategy.
At the centre of the threat is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping route through which an estimated 30% of global fertiliser supplies pass.
AEDS says any prolonged closure or militarisation of the corridor arising from tensions involving the United States and Israel against Iran would send shockwaves through global fertiliser markets, driving up prices and constraining supply.
“In this scenario, Hormuz remains closed or militarised for more than 12 months,” the report says.
“The country will face chronic shortages of fertilisers, with some products completely unavailable on the market.”
Zimbabwe imports most of its fertiliser requirements, leaving local farmers highly vulnerable to global supply disruptions, rising freight costs and foreign currency pressures.
AEDS estimates that fertiliser prices could surge by between 70% and 120% under a prolonged disruption scenario.
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The price of a 50kg bag of Compound D fertiliser, widely used in maize production, could climb from about US$35 to as much as US$77, while ammonium nitrate could exceed US$71 per bag.
The think-tank warned that such increases would force many farmers, particularly smallholders, to reduce fertiliser application rates significantly.
“At this price, farmers will reduce fertiliser application, resulting in a decline in national maize yields of between 35% and 80%,” the report says.
Even under a less grave disruption lasting between one and three months, fertiliser prices are projected to rise by 15% to 25%, resulting in maize yield losses of between 5% and 12%.
The implications for Zimbabwe’s food system could be catastrophic.
Maize remains the country’s staple crop and a key driver of food security, inflation and rural incomes.
A sharp decline in production would likely push up the price of mealie-meal, increase grain import requirements and place additional strain on already stretched household budgets.
Under the worst-case scenario, AEDS estimated that Zimbabwe could lose between one million and 1,4 million tonnes of maize output, forcing the country to spend between US$450 million and US$600 million on grain imports.
The report also projected substantial declines in other strategic crops.
Wheat yields could fall by between 30% and 70%, while soybean production could contract by 25% to 70%, threatening food-processing industries and livestock feed supply chains.
The potential shock would arrive at a time when agriculture is expected to play a central role in sustaining economic growth following a drought-affected 2024-2025 farming season.
Improved rainfall and stronger crop prospects have underpinned expectations of robust agricultural recovery, with the economy forecast to expand by around 5% in 2026 after estimated growth of 8,5% in 2025.
However, AEDS cautions that the government’s flagship Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme could come under significant pressure if fertiliser costs escalate sharply.
Fiscal support requirements for input subsidies could rise to between US$160 million and US$220 million under severe disruption conditions.
The report further warns that broader economic risks extend beyond agriculture.
Rising energy costs linked to instability in the Middle East could increase fuel import bills, raise transport and production costs and reignite inflationary pressures across the economy.
Analysts say the findings underscore long-standing structural weaknesses in Zimbabwe’s agricultural model, which remains heavily dependent on imported fertiliser despite years of policy commitments to self-sufficiency.
With limited domestic fertiliser production capacity and continued reliance on foreign-currency-denominated imports, Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector remains highly exposed to global commodity shocks, geopolitical tensions and exchange rate volatility.
