FOR a brief window, Zimbabwe’s economy appeared to be stabilising. Inflation was cooling. The maize harvest had hit 2,4 million tonnes. The central bank was boasting US$1,2 billion in reserves.
Then the Middle East erupted.
The ripple effects of escalating conflict have now crashed against Zimbabwe’s shores — and the government’s narrative of resilience is cracking under the weight.
Fuel prices have surged. Fertiliser costs are up 30%.
And in the past weeks, transport fares in Harare have doubled, from US$0,50 to US$1 for the average trip, with some commuters forced to pay as much as US$2,50 for a single trip.
“We were just beginning to breathe,” said Nimrod Muchenje, a farmer in Mashonaland West.
“Now the fertiliser we budgeted for is unaffordable. The fuel to move our crop has doubled. This is not our war, but we are paying for it like it is.”
Zimbabwe remains a hostage to global forces that no local policy can control.
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The war in Ukraine had already choked grain and fuel supplies. Now, renewed conflict in the Middle East has driven crude oil past US$90 per barrel.
For a nation that imports all its refined fuel, every dollar increase lands directly on citizens.
At the Mbare bus terminus, the mathematics is unforgiving.
A ride from Chitungwiza to the city centre now costs US$2-US2,50 up from US$1.
The Mbare to CBD route has climbed from US$0,50 to US$1. Drivers say they have no choice.
“I filled my tank yesterday for US$160,” said Tafadzwa Gumbo, a kombi operator. “A month ago, that tank cost US$85. If I don’t double the fare, I drive at a loss.”
For commuters, that arithmetic translates to hunger.
Prisca Nyoni, a vegetable vendor, who travels daily from Seke to Mbare, now spends US$2 on transport — up from US$1. Her daily profit averages US$5.
“Forty percent of my earnings are gone before I sell a single tomato,” she said. “They tell us the economy is resilient. Resilient for whom?”
The government has not wavered from its message.
At the 66th Zimbabwe International Trade Fair (ZITF) in Bulawayo this week, officials reaffirmed that domestic fundamentals remain sound.
Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion minister Mthuli Ncube has pledged continued fuel subsidies. The central bank insists reserves are adequate.
But economists warn that subsidies cannot absorb a sustained global price shock.
Every dollar increase per barrel translates directly to higher pump prices, higher production costs and — as commuters now know — higher fares.
“Resilience is a political slogan, not an economic shield,” said independent economist Fungai Makoni.
“When transport fares double, the entire economy reprices. Food costs rise. School attendance drops. Informal traders lose margins. This is not a blip. This is a structural crack.”
Already, knock-on effects are visible. In Mbare’s vegetable market, a 10-kilogramme bag of potatoes rose from US$6 to US$9 in five days.
The timing is devastating. Zimbabwe is entering the winter planting season, when fertiliser and fuel demand typically rise.
Farmers who budgeted for stable input costs now face ruin.
“We celebrated a bumper harvest while ignoring that the next season is already in jeopardy,” said Harare-based trade analyst Polite Makamure. “Fertiliser is imported. If we cannot afford it, the resilience narrative becomes a one-season wonder.”
For ordinary citizens, there is no cushion.
As global tensions show no sign of easing, analysts warn that the doubled fare is only the first domino.
Diesel powers mining trucks, irrigation pumps and factory lines. When those costs rise, everything else follows.
“Zimbabwe is not resilient,” Makoni said. “Zimbabwe is exposed. And this crisis is proving it — one doubled fare at a time.”
