AFRICAN nations that have struck deals to enhance trade with Iran could face severe repercussions following Washington’s imposition of a 25% tariff on countries conducting business with Tehran, the Zimbabwe Independent can reveal.
This week, United States President Donald Trump introduced the punitive trade measure in response to Iran’s violent suppression of nationwide protests, which have shaken the country and left many demonstrators dead. The unrest, now in its third week, was triggered by the dramatic devaluation of the Iranian currency, further inflaming the cost of living in a nation already strained by stringent US economic sanctions.
Analysts argue that Trump’s reaction to the crisis will directly impact countries such as Zimbabwe, which has near-term ambitions to rapidly expand trade with Tehran.
Despite current trade volumes lingering around US$30 million, Harare and Tehran sealed an agreement in 2024 with the ambitious goal of increasing annual bilateral trade to US$500 million. Political analyst Reuben Mbofana suggested these plans are now in jeopardy following Trump’s tariff hike, designed to economically isolate Iran.
“The announcement of a 25% tariff on countries conducting business with Iran creates a formidable economic barrier for Zimbabwe’s plans to expand its bilateral trade with Tehran,” he said.
“The real impact lies in the potential disruption of the cooperation agreements signed in late 2023, which aimed to boost bilateral trade to a target of US$500 million through joint ventures in mining, energy, and agriculture. The 25% tariff essentially acts as a massive transaction tax on any country maintaining these ties.”
Zimbabwe has established 12 Memoranda of Understanding with Iran, covering sectors including agriculture, mining, pharmaceuticals, and tourism.
Last year, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga attended the Africa-Iran Economic Investment Conference in Tehran, which sought to strengthen commercial links between the two countries. Total trade between Africa and Iran currently stands at approximately US$1,3 billion, with Zimbabwe contributing around US$30 million in annual exports.
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Mbofana added Trump’s latest policy creates a complex dilemma for Zimbabwe.
“For Zimbabwean companies, this move forces a difficult choice between pursuing the US$500 million growth target with Iran or protecting the price competitiveness of their goods in the global marketplace,” he explained.
“A 25% surcharge would likely make Zimbabwean tobacco and other commodities significantly more expensive for international buyers, effectively pricing local producers out of competitive markets. This creates a chilling effect on new investment, as the risk of being hit by such a steep tariff far outweighs the current rewards of the Iranian market.”
He also noted that the sanctions threaten crucial technology transfers.
“Beyond direct trade in goods, Zimbabwe has been looking to Iran for technology transfer in specialised sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical equipment. Because the tariff applies to those ‘doing business’ with Tehran, any local firm that signs a contract for Iranian machinery or technical expertise could find its entire export portfolio penalised.
“This makes the procurement of Iranian technology — previously seen as an affordable alternative for our energy and health sectors — suddenly very expensive.”
The broader consequences, Mbofana observed, will stifle plans to deepen economic cooperation.
“In summary, the impact is less about the loss of the current modest trade and more about the ‘opportunity cost’ of the lost US$500 million growth target. The policy effectively places a ceiling on how much Zimbabwe can diversify its trade partners. As long as this tariff is in place, the private sector will likely remain cautious, prioritising the protection of existing global revenue over the risky expansion of new ties with Tehran.”
Ricky Mukonza, a politics lecturer at Tshwane University, concurred the US tariffs will disrupt trade.
“Zimbabwe has signed agreements with Iran to explore closer economic ties, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, mining, and pharmaceuticals. However, these diplomatic efforts have not yet resulted in substantial trade volumes,” he said.
“Current data shows commercial ties with the US remain vastly more extensive. This means Zimbabwe will suffer significantly due to the 25% tariff announced by the USA.”
In a statement prepared for the Independent, the Iranian embassy in Zimbabwe condemned Washington’s actions, saying such unilateral coercive measures would “gradually lose their credibility because of their inapplicability in the real world.”
“It must be taken into account that the MoUs signed between Iran and Zimbabwe have created a legal basis for cooperation between the two nations and their peoples," it said.
"These MoUs are not only relevant to inter-governmental relations; more than that, they enable people-to-people ties. This means that, with a solid legal basis for cooperation, businesspeople from both countries can work together without fear of sanctions.
“Moreover, the United States cannot impose sanctions on Zimbabwe and then force it to avoid supplying its needs from another sanctioned country," it added.
Zimbabwe’s already frosty relations with the US recently deteriorated further after it was added to a list of nations facing stringent American travel restrictions, including a hefty US$15 000 bond requirement for visitors.
Harare and Tehran, however, maintain solid bilateral ties, a relationship nurtured during the nearly four-decade rule of the late former president Robert Mugabe.
