Presidential runoff most likely in 2018

Research is the systematic investigation and study of materials and source in order to establish facts and reach new conclusions.

By Tinashe Muzamhindo

It comprises of creative work undertaken to increase the stock of knowledge, including knowledge of human, nature and society. Research can also be defined as a careful detailed study into a specific problem, concern or issue using scientific methods.

One has to understand the background, statement of the problem, objectives and framework analysis. Getting to the bottom of the matter to establish what is exactly on the ground.

Analysis

It is a process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts in order to gain full understanding of it. A systematic examination and evaluation of data or information, by breaking it into its component parts to uncover interrelationships.

Emmerson Mnangagwa the new candidate on the bloc

Though people welcomed Zanu PF’s new dispensation, but there are several grey areas which people raised.

The issue of corruption is very toxic, even up to date. People raised the issue of corruption that we still have the same Zanu PF, and it has never changed.

In fact, most people are saying, a leopard will never change its spots, whilst others are claiming that, it was never meant for the people, it was well planned before, only to be implemented timely.

Most people didn’t like Zanu PF politburo member Patrick Chinamasa’s comments, when he clearly told people that this is a Zanu PF project.


Honestly, people felt used by the system to achieve their hidden agenda. This is what people are saying.

The composition of the Cabinet did not reflect the will of the people, it is gender biased, with most people accused of corruption.

ED brought in the same people, no major changes. Women were undermined in political and economic development, though ED went on to appoint Justice Priscilla Chigumba to head the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and another lady to the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority, but most people highlighted that women were supposed to be part of the Cabinet.

ED highlighted the issue of corruption, but suddenly took a back seat, lights went off, the zeal to fight corruption came to a standstill, and people like Wicknell Chivayo, Ignatius Chombo and others are still roaming the streets, despite him claiming that he will deal with corruption decisively.

People expected instant economic growth, when ED was sworn in, and the Davos trip where he promised free and fair elections, whilst back home Joice Mujuru was being assaulted.

Most people expressed concern with the military government citing fear during the run-up to harmonised elections. Main issues which are likely to affect ED are the issues of war veterans who were left out, the issue of how he assumed power, the composition of the Cabinet, economic challenges which he inherited and corruption in his government.

When the majority of people participated in the march, they thought a GNU was going to be created and all parties would then work together.

ED may perform badly in Matabeleland, some parts of Midlands, Mash Central, Mash East, West and some greater parts of Harare.

Not everyone benefited from this dispensation, we still have the over 93% unemployment rate and cash challenges.

MDC-T is likely to settle for Nelson Chamisa

If you look at the current scenario in the MDC-T you can safely conclude that Nelson Chamisa will be the MDC-T presidential candidate, and this may send shivers in the ruling party bigwigs.
Chamisa, with his political clout, may secure a good number of parliamentary seats particularly in urban areas.

The advantage Chamisa has over other MDC-T stalwarts is that he has been very loyal to party leader Morgan Tsvangirai, the veteran trade unionist.

He has been in the system for long and he headed the organising portfolio before and he has the experience in politics, he has the knowledge of MDC-T politics from top brass to grassroots level.

Most of urban seats, if not all will go with Chamisa, and with a big chunk in rural areas as well.

We don’t want to dwell much on the MDC-T succession squabbles, because it is now clear Chamisa will be on the ballot and he is likely to go with a higher percentage.

The advantage he has is as a new candidate, he will be competing with another new candidate on the bloc.

If you remember very well, in 2008, MDC-T almost swept all rural and urban seats even in 2 000, where they got 52 seats, while Zanu PF got 62.
We are likely to have that scenario this year. Once a presidential candidate for MDC-T is announced, with the current economic outlook, people may go for the new opposition candidate on the bloc.

I forsee a scenario where

MDC-T will have a lot of new MPs, in fact majority in Parliament, but with a different Head of State.

Once Chamisa’s candidature is announced, a lot of new voters, including most young people, are likely to opt for Chamisa than ED.

They are going to compare the age-wise and other factors. The main challenge,MDC-T and Chamisa will have its resource and funding.

The other factor is that the wrangles in the MDC may take time to heal, given that we are five months away from elections.

This is going to fuel confusions and defections to other parties, but a good number of MDC-T supporters will remain with Chamisa and the alliance.

He is likely to remain with at least 97,5% of the supporters, mainly those who sympathise with
veteran former Prime Minister Tsvangirai. However, his main challenges will be Thokozani Khupe and her group, which may refuse to give in on alliance demands, which will further divide the votes. Unless Khupe and Chamisa compromise, then they will be the great beneficiaries of this election.

Mujuru’s NPP and her old stock

There are people who always sympathise with the former Vice-President Joice Mujuru who feel she was not treated fairly when she was expelled from Zanu PF.

If you study carefully the political landscape you will discover that Mujuru is gaining ground in Mashonaland provinces, namely; Mash Central, Mash East and this is Sydney Sekeramayi’s home area and Mash West. Zanu PF will perform badly in these areas.

These provinces were mainly Zanu PF strongholds, but because of factionalism and Mujuru’s sympathisers, she still holds a lot of support in these selected provinces.

Mujuru is penetrating urban areas. Her main challenge is that she has been changing political outfits, she lacks principles in politics, today she says this, tomorrow she has another position.

Her recent meeting with Mugabe is likely to damage her political career because most people will feel she has been part of the project and she is still within the system.

Some expressed concern that she is there to split votes. Her party is associated with violence, intimidation and defections, which will affect her performance as well. She is likely to fetch a lot of votes.

New People First

This new political outfit is mainly the G40 cabal led by Jonathan Moyo and Mugabe’s wife, Grace. This group basically knows they won’t get into power, but their main objective is to cause confusion among voters.

Don’t forget that they are those who sympathised with Mugabe throughout, they benefited from agriculture inputs, food handouts, hampers, inputs, command agriculture, presidential scholarships and other things.

Don’t assume that everyone in Zimbabwe is aware that Mugabe is no longer the head of State, they are some people who don’t even know, particularly the rural folk. They still have Mugabe in mind. They are those who were relinquished of their duties by ED, when he assumed power, obvious they will join this new outfit.

They are those from the Central Intelligence Organisation, who were expelled by ED as well, they are likely to go with this group. We have a number of MPs who were expelled from parliament and they will also rally behind this political outfit.

ED is in a dilemma now on how to handle Mugabe, one day you may even wake up and see a headline written Mugabe resigned at gun-point, what are you going to do? Don’t dismiss Jonathan Moyo at your own peril.

They have good number of people on the ground. The bad part is that these guys have inside information on how Zanu PF operates and they will use that information to turn against ED and the Lacoste faction.

Who will benefit from this mess?

Most likely we are going to witness a presidential run-off. The group that was going to benefit from this chaotic scenario was going to be the opposition especially led by Chamisa, if the group was properly constituted and organised. Either way it would be difficult for Mujuru to join hands with ED because of bitterness from the way she was booted out of Zanu PF.

However, don’t forget that ED has the State machinery at his disposal, and time is still there, he can play his cards close to his chest, and he can still manoeuvre the situation.

If you remember very well, for Moyo’s group they simply want to make sure ED won’t get a new term of office, and they want to render the whole country ungovernable. They won’t benefit anything, but it is a group of disgruntled elements bent on causing confusion.

Whilst they are strategically positioning themselves they will find it hard to contest or even campaign. ED will simply use the corruption grenade on them, they will simply vanish silently.

Key research questions were used

What are people saying about the new leader?

Are people comfortable with the new dispensation?

Any hopes for the opposition?

Do people favour Emmerson Mnagangwa, Nelson Chamisa or Elias Mudzuri?

Was it necessary to have a military takeover of the Government?

Any reforms yet?

Is Mujuru an independent party or it’s a shadow of Zanu PF system?

What do you think about the new political outfit, New Patriotic front?

Any signs of economic reforms?

Opinion poll

MDC-T — 43,7%

Zanu PF— 27,5%

New PF — 21%

NPP — 7%

Others — 2%

Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo writes in his personal capacity as the head of Southern Institute of Policy Analysis and Research – SIPAR TRUST. He is currently enrolled at University of KwaZulu Natal in South Africa (PHD in Development Studies). He is also a policy advisor in many institutions within and outside Zimbabwe. He can be contacted atsoutherninstitutepar@gmail.com

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8 Comments

  1. U suggest this was academic research. perhaps you may need to inform us about the methodology used in this poll.

  2. This is a fact that will be unveiled very soon.

  3. Rsearch yokupenga. Worse off he is not registered and will not vote. Desk research yenhema. ZANU PF will win. Most of these writers, facebook, twitter and social media users do not vote. Rural people will go and only vote for ED. Come election time it will be like 2008. Every kombi, public transporter and car will have a poster of ED

  4. Besides, it is a badly written piece! What is New People First? Is it not New Patriotic Front? Good ideas but poorly presented. News Editor and Editor you slept on duty to allow even basic errors to come out in the paper.

  5. Bongozozo Waparara

    haiwawo kkkkk is this research or a prophetic piece? these are the predictions that lead to wild fraud and vote rigging claims after elections. ED is winning on the basis of the momentum already created by mugabe ouster which the opposition had no clue about. chamisa will be lucky to be on the ballot if the current mdc struggles are anything to go by.

  6. I’m sorry to say Tinashe is spewing unadulterated tooosh!

  7. Last elections 2014 makangotiwo MDC will win, nekuti you see all the support opposition has on social media sites and online. Mobva makangamwa voter registration in urban areas is below 50% whilst in the rural areas is significantly higher.

  8. This is a poor article and makes me shudder that such a person may soon hold a PhD..???
    Preliminary figures from ZEC are that approx 5.2 million people registered to vote. Over 2.5 million voters(approx half of the registered voters) are from Midlands,Masvingo,Mash West&Manicaland alone. Those four provinces are predominantly rural and ZANU strongholds and through intimidation,support of traditional leaders,state machinery and party organisation turnout is bound to be high..Bulawayo has less than 200k voters and Harare is estimated at 500k…ZANU claims through its District structures in Harare to have registered at leadt 150k voters…In these 2 major cities turnout has yet to be above 50% of registered voters since 2000 elections….Simply put the math is not on MDC’s side…They rely on people to go on their own to register and then go on their own to vote…Most MDC supporters are not registered and come voting day they would rather go sell their vegetables,fill taxis with passengers,sell window panes at Mbare ie look for money than spend hours in line…Whereas ZANU goes and collects its people with lorries and buses to go and vote then after voting they are fed and beer is bought….This election is a formality.

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