Zimbabwe’s lithium has sparked a crucial national debate, one that goes to the heart of our country’s economic future.
Reports of foreign firms reaping “exorbitant profits” or a “53-fold windfall” and concerns over the “loss” of valuable by-products have stirred genuine, deep-seated patriotism among Zimbabweans across our country.
Every citizen has every right to demand that the mineral wealth endowed by nature in Zimbabwe deliver tangible, long-lasting benefits for our people, our communities, and future generations.
These public concerns, rooted in love for our homeland, deserve to be heard, respected, and earnestly addressed.
The government’s push for fairer returns, greater local beneficiation, and more wealth retained within the country is equally legitimate and admirable.
These goals uphold national sovereignty and reflect economic ambition, forming a sound basis for policy-making and engagement with investors.
Yet passion without facts is like a ship without a compass. Patriotic sentiment, sincere as it is, could steer the lithium industry of Zimbabwe toward dangerous waters.
Mining is a sector dependent on precise economic calculations and long-term strategic planning.
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When public narratives are built on selective data, misleading comparisons, and an incomplete understanding of the lithium value chain, it risks distorting reality and endangering the industry’s long-term health.
For Zimbabwe to truly benefit and prosper from its lithium, we must pair heartfelt aspirations with rigorous economics, confront flawed assumptions, and ground our policies in real costs, real market dynamics, and real fiscal risks.
What follows is a data-driven, unflinching analysis to clarify widespread misconceptions in current public discourse, and to anchor national sentiment in unvarnished truth.
Some media commentaries claim that miners produce a tonne of lithium at a cost of just US$370, while selling it for US$20,000 — leaving the nation to forfeit a massive windfall.
It sounds shocking and dramatic, but it is completely false.
The US$20 000 figure refers to the price of highly processed battery-grade lithium chemicals, NOT the raw ore or semi-processed lithium material that Zimbabwe exports.
This is akin to comparing the price of a kilogramme of wedding cake at a city bakery to the production cost of a kilogramme of wheat on a farm, then accusing the entire supply chain of “stealing” from the farmers who grow wheat.
Zimbabwe primarily exports lithium spodumene concentrate (around 5% grade), which sells for around US$2 000 per tonne — not US$20 000.
Even this comparison overlooks a critical fact: roughly 10 tonnes of concentrate are needed to produce one tonne of battery-grade lithium chemicals.
So, the narrative being pushed online assumes one tonne of raw material can magically become one tonne of high-end battery material out of thin air.
It also ignores actual costs.
The widely cited US$370 production cost is drastically understated; large-scale mines in Zimbabwe produce concentrate at about US$500 per tonne.
Furthermore, lithium deep processing requires massive plants, with construction costs running into hundreds of millions of dollars.
Export prices are set by the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ) in line with international markets.
To produce one tonne of US$20 000 lithium carbonate, at least US$15,000 has to be spent on Zimbabwean raw materials alone, excluding freight and losses.
In short, Zimbabwe is NOT missing out on some 53-fold exorbitant profits claimed by a “Obert Bore, programmes manager at the Zimbabwe Environmental Law Organisation.”
This eye-catching number is derived by forcing a comparison between two entirely different products, while pretending processing costs and massive capital investments do not exist.
The real conversation worth having is: how can Zimbabwe gradually move up the value chain to capture greater value over time, rather than fantasizing that raw materials can suddenly become a goldmine overnight.
A pervasive narrative claims Zimbabwe benefits little from lithium investment.
The truth is the complete opposite: investors bear enormous commercial and financial risks, while the state secures multi-layered, guaranteed fiscal revenues that fund hospitals, schools, roads and public services.
This misconception is like only seeing a farmer harvest crops, while ignoring the entire process of sowing, irrigating, fertilizing and paying taxes to the state.
In reality, foreign firms are bound by strict fiscal and tax regulations:
- Resource Royalties and Levies: 5% royalty plus 2% levy = US$100–150 per tonne;
- Corporate Income Tax: 24.72% of profit = US$125–250 per tonne;
- Export VAT: 10% on total export value;
- Mandatory foreign exchange surrender: 30% of export earnings converted into local currency;
- Local spending on labour, energy, transport and services: each and every mine injects millions of dollars into the domestic economy.
The realistic total operational costs of producing lithium concentrate stand at US$655–1,080 per tonne (excluding capital repayment, debt servicing, and market risks).
When all factors are fully accounted for, well over 50% of the value stays within Zimbabwe.
Investors are not “taking everything” — they are continuously investing, building, hiring and paying taxes.
Claims that cesium, rubidium, beryllium, and other by-minerals are being plundered for nothing oversimplify a complex reality.
These are not rare earth elements (REE), nor do they automatically translate into billions in hidden wealth.
Recovering these by-products usually requires specialized processing techHnology, additional capital investment, and targets small, highly specialized global markets.
Due to the limited demand, large-scale concentrated supply would immediately drive prices down. In many lithium mining operations, these minerals are not recovered at all unless dedicated processing facilities are built for them.
The real issue is not that Zimbabwe is watching its wealth slip away, but whether future contracts and industrial policies can position the nation to capture more of that potential value over time.
Lithium is one of the world’s most volatile commodities.
The myth of “guaranteed profits” ignores the recent market collapse that threatened the entire industry.
This myth is like only seeing a boxer’s prize money after a win, while overlooking his injuries, training costs and risk of defeat.
- In mid-2025, prices plummeted to US$610 per tonne, below the break-even point for most miners;
- In early 2026, prices rebounded to over US$2,000 per tonne.
When prices drop below US$750 per tonne, mines operate at a loss.
Yet the Zimbabwean government’s revenue remains secure and guaranteed: even unprofitable sales are still subject to 10% export VAT and 7% rtotal oyalties. Investors absorb 100% of the downside risk, while the state collects steady income.
Building local processing plants requires an additional US$200–500 million in risk capital for a single project.
No investor with sanity would commit such long-term capital without stable, confidence-inducing policies in place.
The comprehensive “suspension” on raw lithium ore and concentrate exports announced onFebruary 25, 2026, while driven by sincere national interests, has brought severe unintended consequences.
Forcing local processing/beneficiation through sudden bans is like ordering a moving cargo vessel to turn around on a dime — it risks running aground or capsizing.
- The entire industry faced a severe cash flow crisis;
- The breach of contractual obligations exposed Zimbabwe to legal and reputational risks;
- Production slowdowns and temporary shutdowns were considered as part of the temporary solution to the looming crisis;
- Up to 9 000 jobs were at risk, threatening the livelihoods of thousands of families.
Local beneficiation is a noble and necessary national goal, but it cannot be achieved through shock policies that destroy the investment, cash flow, and partnerships required to build domestic processing capacity.
Zimbabwe holds world-class lithium reserves, but what lies underground is just rock — like uncut jade; it only transforms into national wealth through capital, technology, talent, skills, and stable, predictable policies.
We do not have to choose between unwavering resource nationalism and responsible foreign investment.
As Zimbabweans, we can and must pursue both. The rational, pro-nation path is clear:
- Acknowledge the legitimacy of public concerns and support the government’s efforts to secure fairer returns/benefits;
- Reject emotive, myth-driven policies based on false profit narratives and erroneous data;
- Support gradual, well-planned local beneficiation instead of reckless, sudden bans;
- Strengthen transparency, auditing and regulatory compliance to ensure full tax and royalty payments;
- Establish a flexible fiscal and tax mechanism: more revenue for the state when prices rise; viability/survival for businesses when prices fall.
The “53-fold windfall” story makes for gripping headlines, but it builds no factories, creates no stable jobs, and fills no national coffers.
For Zimbabwe to turn lithium into prosperity, we Zimbabweans must choose facts over fear, stability over shock, and long-term national gain over short-term emotion.
Lithium does have a bearing our future. With wisdom, unity and rational policies, we can ensure it delivers for all Zimbabweans.
*Tapiwa Morgan Makoni is a Bulawayo-based investment consultant and independent commentator.
