It does not matter who you are, leadership since the beginning of Covid-19 in early 2020 has been unpredictable and difficult, with many leaders setting aside their strategic plans and literally winging it.
No one alive in this generation, never imagined themselves living through a pandemic.
As a result, most planning programmes devised in organisations pre-2020, which did not take into consideration the ravages Covid-19 would have on the economies in which they were operating and organisations they led, were shelved.
Covid-19 came and like all pandemics, disrupted the functioning of both the private and public sector organisations. Unfortunately Covid-19 is still lingering longer, in pockets in various parts around the world. During the last four weeks alone, four people I know in the northern hemisphere have been down with Covid-19 and in the southern hemisphere, two suffered from it and perished. These numbers seem negligible but they serve to demonstrate that the pandemic is still to be completely eradicated.
What is apparent is that, Covid-19 will certainly not be the last disruptor we have to contend with. The World Health Organisation is already talking about having treaties with governments when, not if, the next pandemic comes. I do not want to be a bearer of bad news, but literature from reputable sources is pointing to the fact that the next pandemic is expected sooner rather than later.
The so-called Disease X, the latest addition to an ever-lengthening list of disruptors, expected to be more lethal than Covid-19, is expected to waste up to 5 billion people by 2030. The question that begs for an answer then is, are our organisations here in Zimbabwe, in both the private and public sectors ready for the next pandemic?
Given what we know about what happened globally with Covid-19 across the globe, what is the readiness of the Zimbabwe’s private sector at conglomerate level all the way to the informal sector? What is the preparedness of government ministries and parastatals?
In the event of prolonged shutdowns, what budgetary provisions has the government put in place to rescue both the private and public sectors? Is this even a conversation that is keeping the Ministry of Finance’s Planning Department awake at night?
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Scenario planning
We are all aware that Covid-19 caused untold suffering as it created instability, uncertainty and turbulence. Like most economies across the globe, Zimbabwe was not spared. The next pandemic will worsen the turbulence caused by Covid-19, which we are yet to recover from.
Are entities in Zimbabwe using scenario planning as a mitigating tool to create stability and resilience in turbulent conditions and uncertain times. Armed with a full comprehension of possible future outcomes and the priority being to tackle the most urgent and important needs, leaders of private and public sector institutions can confidently develop strategies and plans for navigating through that uncertainty and volatility.
In addition, where planning certainty and budgetary are vital, dynamic scenario planning reduces the time taken to identify the right priorities in the long term.
What is scenario planning?
The scenario planning methodology is a pro-active tool that eliminates the element of surprise. By preparing your organisation for those potential scenarios before they occur, your organisation will be putting itself in a better position to manage and control to what actually happens.
Scenario planning is a strategy thinking and planning methodology organisations use a way to assert control over an uncertain world by considering possible future events through identifying valid assumptions about those various futures, so that they can develop robust and relevant short to medium term and medium term to long-range plans.
With a firm grasp and understanding of the range of potential future scenarios and clarity and commitment around “no-regret” moves, leaders utilising scenario planning tools, can confidently develop strategies and action plans for navigating with flexibility through troubled waters.
For any organisation, what becomes key is the ability to consider, during the scenario planning process, a whole host of issues which include, but are not restricted to the following: their organisation’s risk tolerance, human resource availability, cash position, in addition to identifying early warning signals when presented and to decode signals as they unfold.
In essence, the scenario planning methodology is a disciplined and intentional attempt at eliminating the two most common errors made in any strategic analysis, namely, over-prediction and under-prediction of the organisation’s future.
Scenario planning methodology
Whilst nobody can predict the future with any level of certainty, what happened with Covid-19 revealed that organisations tend to overlook the scenario planning process, because it is detail orientated and laborious.
The leadership team needs to set aside time honestly unpack and provide real life data about the organisation and the environment it operates in.
Stakeholder engagement (SE) is a key imperative in scenario planning. SE plays a crucial role in the scenario thinking and planning process as it plays a significant role in gathering insights of how each stakeholder may be impacted with each scenario.
The scenario planning process can be divided into four main tasks as follows:
Task 1: Identify the key drivers
A P-E-S-T-L-E analysis is used to get started in the scenario planning process, identifying the driving forces that could impact your organisation or ministry or parastatal to extract as much as you are able to from the environment around you that could impact your organisation in any shape or form.
In addition to the PESTLE analysis, the definition of the scenario planning process can be disaggregated into macro and micro scenarios, although this point is not being discussed here.
Understanding the sector of the organisation will involve exploring benchmarks, sector trends, defining sector structure, performing a competitor analysis, defining the current strategic profile through reviewing the current strategic profile and conducting a stakeholder analysis.
A cross-impact analysis and for businesses, determining the life cycle of the business becomes necessary in order to identify the key strategic issues. These analyses must be done for current and future states of the organisation.
Task 2: Identify the uncertainties
The next task is to identify the critical uncertainties and then zero in on them. For example, if we assume the next pandemic is just a matter of time, we might want to zero in on:
Protracted lockdowns, and
The disposable incomes of our customers will be zeroised.
Task 3: Develop plausible scenarios In developing the scenarios, we expand on the possible uncertainties to come up with four scenarios as illustrated in Table 2 below:
Task 4: Tabulate the implications of each scenario In the final task of the scenario planning process, the participants ought to unpack each scenario with positioning the organisation’s response should that scenario occur.
On the face of it, these scenarios might appear extreme, but the last three years with Covid-19 revealed to us that anything is a possibility during a pandemic as the enemy is invisible.
Consequently, no scenario is worth discounting, particularly if a lot of thought by the leadership team, has gone into it.
We understand with Covid-19 that Scenario 1 occurred and some, not all customers, suffered as described in Scenario 2 above. What was obvious was, many organisations had not thought through about any scenarios planning process and as a result, a shotgun approach to planning was adopted.
Occurrences might or might not happen, in between the stated scenarios.
Be that as it may, what is important is, at least the organisation would have set aside time, without undue pressure, to think about most of the eventualities occurring.
- Ndoro-Mukombachoto is a former academic and banker. She has consulted widely in strategy, entrepreneurship, and private sector development for organisations in Zimbabwe, the sub-region and overseas. As a writer and entrepreneur with interests in property, hospitality and manufacturing, she continues in strategy consulting, also sharing through her podcast @HeartfeltwithGloria. — +263 772 236 341.
