The rise of China: A structural shift in Global order and strategic opportunities for the Global South
By Saxon Zvina
China is no longer merely the “world’s factory” — it has become a global leader in multiple strategic technologies, including advanced equipment, new materials, quantum communication, and controlled nuclear fusion. These achievements represent a systematic transition from a technology follower to a frontier innovator, rather than isolated breakthroughs.
This transformation coincides with the evolution of the post-Cold War international order toward greater multipolarity. For the Global South — and Africa in particular — China’s rise represents the most significant structural shift in a generation. The central question is no longer whether the global balance of power is changing, but how developing countries can strategically position themselves to share the benefits of this transition while safeguarding sovereignty and avoiding new forms of dependency.
Key domains of China’s leadership
Advanced technological development
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China has achieved independent innovation in fifth-generation fighter aircraft, electromagnetic catapult technology, hypersonic vehicles, and anti-ship ballistic missiles, establishing a modern national defense system. Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) hold approximately 40% of the global export market, providing cost-effective solutions for many countries. In materials science, 2200MPa super-steel offers a solid foundation for maritime and aerospace engineering.
Civilian technological advantages
Civilian technologies underpin long-term prosperity. China’s quantum communication network, consisting of the Micius satellite and the Beijing-Shanghai trunk line, is the world’s only operational space-to-ground quantum encryption system. The Jiuzhang-3 optical quantum computer demonstrates outstanding computing performance in specialized scenarios. The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST), or “artificial sun,” has set a world record by sustaining a temperature of 120 million°C for 1,066 seconds, bringing clean energy closer to reality.
In infrastructure, China’s ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission technology has become an important global reference. The 26 MW offshore wind turbine, 350km/h Fuxing high-speed train, and large-diameter tunnel boring machines (TBMs) lead in commercial application and deployment efficiency. Chinese power battery manufacturers hold over 60% of the global market share, and BYD ranks among the world’s top sellers of electric vehicles.
How the Global South and Africa can benefit from China’s rise
China’s development is not a zero-sum game. Unlike historical patterns of resource extraction and colonial dependency, China offers developing countries a new model of cooperation based on mutual benefit, win-win results, and no political strings attached.
1. Infrastructure for industrialisation
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has financed and delivered more than 3 000 projects in over 150 countries. For Africa, this includes railways, ports, power grids, and digital corridors. China’s TBM technology, UHV transmission, and high-speed rail expertise enable African countries to leapfrog decades of infrastructure deficits through effective negotiation.
2. Affordable energy transition
China produces 60–70% of the world’s core superconducting materials for nuclear fusion, dominates global solar PV manufacturing (over 80% capacity), and provides large-scale offshore wind equipment. For Africa — rich in solar and wind resources but short of affordable capital equipment — Chinese clean energy technologies offer a realistic path to energy independence without overreliance on external concessional financing.
3. Digital sovereignty through secure technology
Most developing countries rely on Western-controlled undersea cables and cloud systems. China’s quantum communication network, if internationalized, can provide a more secure option for governmental, financial, and critical communications, helping countries strengthen data security and reduce external surveillance risks.
4. Defense modernisation with no political conditionalities
Chinese military-related exports, including UAVs, air defense systems, and radar equipment, are provided with fewer political conditions than traditional suppliers. Such equipment helps African countries enhance self-defense capabilities and maintain national security.
5. De-dollarisation and financial autonomy
China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with more than 40 countries and promotes RMB settlement through the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). For African nations affected by dollar volatility and external policy conditionalities, this supports gradual monetary diversification.
6. Industrialisation via value-chain Integration
China is increasingly relocating manufacturing segments to low-cost African locations, such as industrial parks in Ethiopia and the Suez Canal Economic Zone in Egypt. Chinese EV battery producers are exploring local cobalt processing in the DRC, moving beyond raw ore exports to partial local beneficiation.
Strategic positioning for Africa and the Global South
1. From passive recipient to active negotiator
Africa should engage with China as a equal partner: bundle projects to enhance bargaining power; enforce local content requirements; unify contract terms under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to avoid a race to the bottom.
2. Build regional technology assimilation hubs
- Ethiopia: aerospace and UAV assembly hub
- South Africa: metallurgy and advanced steel processing
- Kenya: digital and quantum communication demonstration node
- Egypt: high-speed rail and TBM maintenance base
These hubs will serve neighboring countries and create regional multiplier effects.
3. Prioritise technology transfer over turnkey delivery
Negotiate joint R&D centers, mandatory skills transfer quotas, and local maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) rights to ensure sustainable capacity building.
4. Leverage multipolar competition for strategic autonomy
African governments should evaluate transparent competing proposals from multiple partners, diversify suppliers, and maintain full strategic autonomy without exclusive alignment.
5. Institutionalise cooperation via Focac and AfCFTA
Strengthen unified African coordination in the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and use the AfCFTA secretariat as a continental platform for technology assessment and standardization.
6. Build Indigenous Innovation Ecosystems
Develop Chinese-language STEM programs, establish dual-degree partnerships with top Chinese universities, and require scholarship components in major infrastructure projects.
7. Establish a continental critical minerals strategic reserve
Africa should jointly manage battery minerals, create a strategic reserve to stabilise prices, negotiate local refining and cathode production, and use resource access as leverage for technology transfer and industrial equity.
Risks and mitigation
- Debt risks: transparent, project-specific loans with revenue-linked repayment
- Environmental protection: strict host-country standards with independent monitoring
- Labor impacts: guaranteed local employment and training programs
- Digital security: regional cybersecurity vetting for ICT equipment
China’s rise is systemic, long-term, and mutually reinforcing across quantum, fusion, UHV, EV, and high-speed rail technologies. For the Global South and Africa, this opens an unprecedented window of opportunity: diversify partnerships, lower infrastructure costs, access advanced technology without political strings, and accelerate industrialisation.
The greatest beneficiaries will be those who act decisively: negotiate firmly for technology transfer, build regional absorption capacity, leverage multipolar competition, and invest in human capital. The old model of the Global South as a permanent raw-material supplier is obsolete. A new era is emerging in which African and Global South nations become co-creators of a multipolar, inclusive global order.
The question is no longer whether China will rise — it has risen. The question is: will the Global South rise with it?
*Saxon Zvina is principal consultant at Skyworld Consultancy Services and a member of the Belt and Road Initiative Think Tank