THE quantity and quality of data required to transform African economies cannot be found in statistical agencies, universities, central banks or government institutions alone.
In agriculture-driven economies, critical data resides in value chains, among farmers and within mass markets, where real economic activity takes place.
For financial institutions and value chain actors to fully support economic transformation, they need unprecedented volumes of data that no single organisation can collect. This requires new methods, skills, capabilities and infrastructure for gathering and analysing information. Artificial intelligence alone cannot fill this gap.
Making sense of complex socio-economic issues
Socio-economic realities in most African countries are too complex for any single institution to fully understand.
Government departments often oversimplify conditions on the ground through periodic announcements of high-profile projects. Yet no institution has enough expertise to understand the fast-moving, relationship-driven economies that increasingly operate through digital networks.
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Farmers and ordinary citizens, once conditioned to rely on information sponsored by banks, seed companies or telecommunications firms, are increasingly interpreting their realities through real-time, unbiased insights shared across market networks.
With about 70% of Africa's food systems driven by smallholder farmers and SMEs, mass markets should become centres of employment and innovation. Supply chain specialists, agricultural economists, statisticians and food scientists should work alongside farmers and traders in these markets, applying their expertise to strengthen value chains, promote value addition and expand digital extension services.
Building a new culture of gathering evidence
A new culture of evidence gathering is enabling value chain actors to collaborate on a scale that was unimaginable a decade ago.
The era of academic researchers working in isolation, building individual teams and pursuing personal recognition is fading. Likewise, private companies can no longer afford to guard information as a competitive advantage. Generating meaningful evidence now requires collaboration, including among competitors.
Markets also create their own knowledge. Commodities often acquire new identities that differ from the names assigned by breeders or manufacturers.
For example, one green maize variety is known as Kasa Banana in Mbare Market. Unless agronomists and plant breeders engage directly with the market, they may never learn how consumers and traders identify and promote their products
Using market evidence to characterise farmers
Formal institutions classify farmers using administrative criteria, but markets categorise them according to their participation.
Relevant indicators include production seasonality, frequency of market participation, commodities sold and trading volumes.
At community level, a more meaningful measure is collective market surplus rather than individual production. High production does not necessarily translate into marketable surplus.
A large household may consume more than 80% of its harvest, leaving little to sell. By contrast, a smaller household producing the same amount may market most of its output.
The mass market as a laboratory
Government departments, development agencies and academic institutions may dismiss the idea that mass markets are living laboratories. Yet this is precisely what they are.
For more than a decade, eMKambo has collected daily market evidence while helping value chain actors pool data. It has also strengthened the capacity of farmers, traders and vendors to interpret market information.
These actors increasingly seek to understand the forces behind price movements. Why, for example, does a crate of tomatoes that sold for US$45 yesterday fetch only US$38 today?
Such questions foster economic and scientific thinking outside formal classrooms.
The mass market is an open classroom where farmers, traders, vendors and consumers collectively generate and apply knowledge. If these actors spent their time in lecture halls instead of markets, food systems would suffer.
Social media is further strengthening farmers' confidence by enabling continuous learning and experimentation. Many farmers and traders now use market intelligence to make informed business decisions.
Seed companies, farmer organisations and policymakers should invest in accessing and analysing this feedback if they are to remain relevant in rapidly changing agricultural markets.