ZIMBABWE could face another severe drought, which will worsen food insecurity during the 2026-27 agricultural season as an El Niño event becomes increasingly likely, according to latest data.
This is barely two years after a historic El Niño-induced drought left nearly seven million citizens in urgent need of food aid.
A new Inter-Agency Report of the Global El Niño Southern Oscillation Analysis Cell, titled El Niño Status and Humanitarian Outlook, warns that there is an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August 2026.
There is also a 90% chance that this will persist through November, raising fears of widespread climate shocks across vulnerable regions, including southern Africa, according to the report.
The warning serves as an opportunity for action before seasonal hazards translate to food insecurity, displacement, disease outbreaks and humanitarian crises.
Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar are flagged as hotspots facing heightened drought risks during the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season, potentially leading to crop failure, water shortages, food price increases and deteriorating nutrition outcomes.
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“These countries are still recovering from the 2023-24 El Niño and reduced funding and livelihood erosion limit recovery capacity ahead of the October-March rainy season,” the report read.
“Drought is expected to curtail planting and yields of 2027 cereal crops. Maize — the primary food staple — is highly susceptible to water stress.
“Cereal production downturns of 30%+ forecast. Livestock mortality from pasture loss. The 2027 lean season is likely to be severe.”
The report further raised concern about public health, warning that El Niño could contribute to cholera outbreaks, malaria transmission and worsening malnutrition.
Governments and humanitarian agencies were urged to safeguard crops, water supplies, essential resources and infrastructure, while prioritising children and other vulnerable groups, and ensuring humanitarian systems are adequately prepared to respond when affected communities require assistance.
Climate change and environmental specialist Achieford Mhondera told NewsDay that El Niño in southern Africa historically translates to suppressed, erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells.
“For Zimbabweans, this phenomenon should not be viewed as a surprise disaster, but it has graduated to be a recurring, predictable climate cycle,” he said.
“Understanding El Niño means recognising that the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season is highly prone to drought, particularly for rain-fed agriculture.”
He urged households to prioritise climate-resilient practices.
“This means that farmers must adopt climate-smart agriculture, agroecology and shift focus towards drought-tolerant seed varieties, for example traditional small grains like sorghum and millet, and adopt moisture-conservation farming methods such as Pfumvudza/Intwasa.”
The country is still reeling from the devastating 2023-24 farming season, when scorching temperatures and erratic rainfall decimated crops, triggered widespread livestock losses, and pushed millions into hunger.
That crisis exposed the fragility of Zimbabwe’s rain-fed agricultural system and prompted a massive humanitarian response, forcing the World Food Programme to seek approximately US$36,5 million to sustain food assistance programmes amid worsening food insecurity driven by climate shocks and structural economic pressures.