BULAWAYO has, once again, been granted stay of execution by the rains.
On paper, the city’s water situation looks markedly better than it did a year ago.
According to the City of Bulawayo’s Dam Watch report of December 29, 2025, the six operational dams supplying the city are 41,89% full, up from 25,89% at the same time last year.
That nearly 16-percentage-point improvement has calmed fears of an immediate collapse in supply.
But to mistake this modest recovery for progress would be dangerously complacent.
A closer reading of the data reveals an old and uncomfortable truth: Bulawayo remains one bad season away from crisis.
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The city is not managing abundance; it is managing risk and doing so on an increasingly fragile foundation.
The headline improvement is largely attributable to a single asset.
Mtshabezi Dam, now 86,17% full, has become the backbone of Bulawayo’s water security.
Without it, the picture would be bleak.
Insiza Mayfair sits at 45,82%, Lower Ncema at 44,64%, Upper Ncema at 34,76%, Umzingwane at 27,38%, and Inyankuni — long the city’s weakest link — languishes at a worrying 16,37%.
With the exception of Mtshabezi, none of Bulawayo’s dams is even half full.
This is not resilience; it is concentration risk.
Any operational problem, contamination or unexpected drawdown at Mtshabezi would immediately expose the inadequacy of the rest of the system.
Even more troubling is what the inflow data tells us.
Despite the rainy season having begun in October 2025, no inflows were recorded across all dams on December 28.
Since the first inflows on October 21, total dam levels have risen by just 6,51% — roughly 27 million cubic metres — against a combined capacity exceeding 414 million cubic metres.
Rain has fallen, but it has not flowed.
Dry catchments, erratic rainfall patterns and high evaporation rates are steadily eroding the reliability of seasonal rains.
Bulawayo’s dams may look healthier than last year, but they remain well below what any serious planner considers safe for a major urban centre with virtually no alternative water sources.
This is where the conversation must shift from weather to politics.
For years, the second republic has spoken expansively about correcting regional imbalances and prioritising development in Matabeleland and Bulawayo.
The centrepiece of that promise has been the Matabeleland Zambezi Water Project, anchored by the Gwayi-Shangani Dam and the long-promised Bulawayo-Zambezi water pipeline.
It has been framed as the permanent solution to the city’s chronic water insecurity.
Yet today, Gwayi-Shangani Dam remains a symbol not of certainty, but of ambiguity.
Timelines shift, milestones are announced and re-announced and completion dates recede into the distance.
Funding clarity is sporadic, communication inconsistent and public accountability thin.
For a project described as nationally strategic, its delivery has been anything but.
Every delay matters.
While government officials issue reassurances from Harare, Bulawayo continues to ration water, households continue to plan their lives around supply schedules and industry continues to be constrained.
The city is told to be patient, even as it is forced to rely on a rainfall-dependent system that climate variability is steadily undermining.
The charge of hypocrisy becomes unavoidable.
The second republic cannot claim to prioritise the development of the southern region while allowing its most critical piece of infrastructure to drift in uncertainty.
This administration cannot speak of devolution and regional equity while Bulawayo’s water security hinges on the generosity of the skies in January and February.
And you cannot celebrate incremental dam percentage gains while postponing the only project capable of breaking the cycle of scarcity.
The current dam levels offer cautious relief, not confidence.
They buy time, nothing more.
Without sustained, system-wide inflows, rationing will persist, and the city will remain trapped in reactive management rather than long-term planning.
Bulawayo does not need sympathetic statements or seasonal optimism anymore.
It needs a permanent solution delivered with urgency and transparency.
Until the Gwayi-Shangani Dam moves decisively from promise to reality, every rainy season will be accompanied by the same anxiety — and every delay will stand as evidence that the second republic’s rhetoric on southern region development far outpaces its resolve.