“Chigutiro! Tamba vakaguta! Hukamaiiko? Hunenge usahwira! Amahewu-hewu! Hewu!”
That could have been the ecstatic song of unrestrained joy in government circles last week, on August 31, 2015. The reason was the exploit of one of the country’s daughters, now married to a Nigerian.
She brought Africa’s richest man to Zimbabwe, so he could open discussions with government, on his company’s pending investments in Zimbabwe, her country of birth, in need of massive job creation. Her name is Josey Agbeniyi, nee Mahachi. She and her husband deserve the Zimbabwean red diplomatic passport.
There must be a Zimbabwean Embassy in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital city. Who better to grace the Zimbabwe Ambassador’s residence in Nigeria than this determined and patriotic young lady? She delivers.
According to her, she is saddened by the plight of some of her countrymen (Zimbabweans), “especially as the economy is facing challenges when there is so much hope on the horizon because of the country’s great potential”. Quite clearly, Aliko Dangote, the Nigerian multi-billionaire, shares her hope.
For over a year, thanks to her job as a TV presenter, she followed Dangote hoping to get an opportunity to invite the great man to invest in Zimbabwe. Once the invitation was extended the Dangote Group’s (the company) business development unit would have swung into action looking for opportunities. That is if it was not in the process given the size of the company, the experience of its chief change agent, Dangote himself, and its aspirations as an African business powerhouse.
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For the well-heeled, there is an abundance of low-hanging fruit in Zimbabwe. Massive reserves of natural resources such as iron ore and coal are one. A modestly educated but plentiful population willing to work is another. An ageing infrastructure and poor utilities output, crying for capital and rehabilitation, offers even more opportunities as does acres of idle land and a good climate. The snag, apart from geography and demographics, as Dangote knows, has been Africa’s economically ineffective leadership. But he, and a few select billionaires and multi-national corporations, who have mastered the art of “thriving in chaos”, should know how to deal with such leadership. Timing may be everything.
For Zimbabwe the timing could be better. The political pressure cooker is threatening to explode. The economic and social landscapes are recognisably bleak. Worse for the political leadership, the culprits are running out of excuses and promises. The ground is thus ready for rich pickings of the low-hanging fruit. And with that Zimbabwe may have reached a turning point; first, in its thinking. Once the thinking is corrected, the rest may be surprisingly easy, massive job creation will follow. Government’s weak hand, however, needs to be strengthened. Otherwise as capital comes in to negotiate “deals,” government’s choices will be limited as capital wrings concession after concession from an increasingly desperate administration.
This, therefore, calls for abandoning foreign direct investment-repellant laws publicly and loudly. This calls for a stern hand towards corruption. Commitment, too, needs to be shown in structural reforms leading to better competitive fiscal space and fiscal management.
The floodgates for investment into the country could be opened, giving the country the upper hand in investment frameworks, if the leadership secures a “Most Favoured Nation” (MFN) status with China (and other countries too) to get around formidable tariff and non-tariff barriers and access the vast Chinese market. That could see exports of agricultural commodities and products to China go over the $15bn mark in a decade or two.
The same could apply to mineral commodities such as coal and iron ore where tens of millions of tonnes could be exported to Asia, Japan and India included. All it takes is for government to have the right policies and to secure the MFN status. The US, some 30 or so years ago, extended it to China, taking it out of poverty. The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US law to promote trade with Africa, has been out of reach for Zimbabwe, but re-engagement could see it extended and accessible.
Dangote would be aware of all these opportunities. With his money, influence and leverage that comes from being a potential or major investor, he can also change perceptions encouraging regional and international trade. Already his Zambian cement manufacturing company is buying Zimbabwean coal. In turn, with an eye on the US dollar in Zimbabwe, he smartly suggested that returning rail wagons could carry Zambian cement into the Zimbabwean market. That would reduce transport costs significantly. Should the infrastructure upgrade take off, funded by the Chinese, more cement would be needed.
As for power generation, it is clearly obvious that the region as a whole needs new thermal generation capacity to replace ageing infrastructure. Zimbabwe’s high-quality coking and thermal coal will find markets in Asia readily. China may be committed to building a heavy-duty railroad from Botswana via Zimbabwe to a port in Mozambique. The company may be aware of the potential such a development will offer. The time to position oneself strategically is now.
If only there could more Josey Agbeniyis in the likes of South Africa, China, the UK and US. Some two or so years ago the world’s richest man, Bill Gates, was in Zimbabwe on a holiday. The Zimbabwean Embassy in Washington could have organised courtesy calls with senior government officials. But the opportunity was missed.
Focus for these embassies need to shift to promoting investment in Zimbabwe. Perhaps it is time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is revamped? “Her excellency ambassador Josey Agbeniyi nee Mahachi” sounds transformational as Foreign minister!