ZIMBABWE’S new gold mining policy could undermine up to US$600 million in annual export earnings by discouraging exploration investment and weakening future large-scale production, a new report shows, warning that strict ownership thresholds may harm long-term sector growth and revenue.
The assessment by Fincent Advisory comes a month after the government reserved small and medium-scale gold mining operations producing up to 20 kilogrammes of gold per month, or requiring capital investment of up to US$15 million, exclusively for Zimbabwean citizens.
The policy also directs foreign-owned operators below those thresholds to either scale up or exit the sector by January 2027.
However, Fincent Advisory said the reforms could have serious long-term implications.
“In plain terms, under strict implementation, an exploration-spend fall of 30–50% could forgo an estimated 4–6 tonnes per year of potential new large-scale output by the early 2030s — roughly US$0,4–0,6 billion per year in export earnings and US$20–30 million per year in royalties at a 5% rate, before corporate tax,” Fincent said.
“The investor-friendly path does the opposite, adding 8–10 t/yr and close to US$1 billion in annual exports. This is the production pipeline the threshold puts at stake.”
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The gold policy is significant given that Zimbabwe officially delivered a record 46,7 tonnes of gold in 2025, with roughly 75% coming from artisanal and small-scale miners.
For 2026, the gold target is 50 tonnes, highlighting the scale at which the new policy could affect sector performance amid surging global prices, which rose by 60% last year.
“Exploration is financed in small, staged equity rounds (typically US$1–5 million) and is globally scarce — only 43 companies worldwide ran budgets of US$10 million or more in 2024, with the grassroots share of spending at a record low (~19%),” Fincent said.
“The US$15 million threshold sits 3–15× above exploration norms; it lands at the mine-development stage, not exploration. Treating exploration like development is the policy’s central calibration error.”
Fincent said policy uncertainty is already priced into investment decisions.
“Layering title, discretion and repatriation risk onto the cost of equity lifts the effective hurdle rate by an estimated 4–5 points, compressing project net present value by roughly 25–40% and lengthening time-to-finance,” it said.
“Most peers concentrate state participation in a defined free-carried interest (10–16%) while keeping ownership open; Zimbabwe’s blanket nationality reservation plus an absolute capital threshold is an outlier — more restrictive at the small/medium scale and less predictable. Zimbabwe scores top on geological prospectivity but bottom on predictability, ownership flexibility and policy stability.”
Fincent called for the US$15 million threshold to be replaced with stage-based milestone commitments, and for greater use of carried interests, joint ventures, and employee share ownership schemes.
It also urged authorities to protect legitimate foreign investors while enforcing existing laws to “weed out” illicit mining activity.
“Protect bankable projects with stability undertakings; and establish a transparent ZIDA [Zimbabwe Investment and Development Agency] exception authority as a safety valve for strategic investment,” Fincent said.
“Zimbabwe can capture more national value from gold — but only if the policy is calibrated to protect capital formation, exploration investment and investor confidence. Calibrated well, sovereignty and competitiveness are complements, not opposites.”