BUY Zimbabwe has revealed a rising import bill dominated by fuel and food that continues to strain the economy, despite the trade balance in 2025 narrowing significantly compared to earlier years owing to export gains in value-added goods.
In Buy Zimbabwe’s new 2025 Import & Export Trade Analysis report, it was revealed that from 2021 to 2025, exports rose from US$6,06 billion in 2021 to US$9,71 billion, respectively.
Driving this rise in exports, particularly between 2024 and last year, were semi-manufactures, nickel mattes and tobacco, which together account for nearly three-quarters of total receipts.
During the same period, imports also rose, from US$7,37 billion to US$10,11 billion, with imports heavily concentrated in energy products such as diesel, petrol, liquefied petroleum gas and electricity, alongside food staples and fertilisers.
Hence, despite persistent deficits averaging over US$1,6 billion annually between 2021 and 2024, 2025 marked a dramatic narrowing of the trade gap to just US$404 million.
However, Buy Zimbabwe revealed that this exposed structural weaknesses.
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“This dependency underscores structural weaknesses tied to external supply chains and exposure to global price shocks,” Buy Zimbabwe said.
“The reliance on imported essentials highlights the urgent need for domestic capacity in energy generation and agro-inputs.”
It added that: “Mining and manufacturing remain the anchors of GDP [gross domestic product] contributions, but without greater investment in local energy generation, fertilizer production, and downstream value addition in mining and agriculture, Zimbabwe risks remaining locked in a cycle where export gains are offset by import dependency.”
Buy Zimbabwe noted that this dynamic constrains long-term resilience and industrial transformation, making value addition and import substitution critical priorities for sustainable growth.
“In summary, Zimbabwe’s trade balance in 2025 narrowed significantly compared to earlier years, thanks to export gains in value-added goods.
“However, the rising import bill dominated by fuel and food continues to strain the economy.”
For its part, Buy Zimbabwe has been championing locally produced goods for years in order for the country to reduce its import bill.
“To address these structural weaknesses, Zimbabwe should prioritise investment in local fertiliser production to reduce forex leakage and strengthen agricultural resilience.
“Expanding renewable energy generation and refining capacity is critical to cutting reliance on imported fuel and electricity.
“Import substitution should be targeted at processed foods, pharmaceuticals, and manufactured goods where local production can feasibly replace imports.
“Value addition must become the cornerstone of industrial policy.”
In tobacco, Buy Zimbabwe said scaling up cigarette and tobacco product manufacturing would allow Zimbabwe to capture more of the value chain.
“In precious metals, developing jewellery and luxury goods industries would retain value locally. In metals, promoting machinery assembly, auto manufacturing, and steel fabrication would reduce dependence on imported industrial products.
“In agriculture, strengthening agro-processing industries such as flour mills, edible oil plants, breweries, bakeries, and textile mills would transform raw exports into higher-value goods.”
It said between 2021 and 2025, Zimbabwe’s trade profile revealed two contrasting dynamics, which include a rising import bill driven by fuel and food dependence and export growth powered by value-added semi-manufactured goods.
“Together, these trends highlight both the vulnerabilities and opportunities shaping the country’s economic trajectory,” the local products promotions body added.