Zimbabwe’s betting market is reshaping itself around the 2026 tax changes

Zimbabwe’s gambling industry has posted steady annual growth of 8–10% over the past five years, with total оборот exceeding $150 million a year. Despite the country’s macroeconomic difficulties, the sector remained one of the few that kept growing consistently. However, in January 2026 a new gambling tax regime took effect, and it has already reshaped the economics of betting. The key changes are a 25% tax on players’ winnings and a jump in the tax rate for bookmakers from 3% to 20% of gross revenue.

At the same time, the authorities increased the fiscal burden and tightened enforcement and tax administration, which inevitably changes both operators’ business models and players’ behavior. What follows outlines the specific parameters of the reform, the new TaRMS reporting system, the international context, the market reaction, and forecasts tied to the financial reporting for the first quarter of 2026.

What exactly changed in the rules

The reform affects virtually the entire range of gambling. The main parameters of the new regime look like this:

• a 25% tax on players’ winnings, which is rare in global practice, where operators are typically taxed rather than participants;
• the rate for bookmakers increased almost sevenfold, from 3% to 20% of gross revenue;
• similar rules apply to casinos and lotteries;
• the rules apply to both online and land-based segments, with no exemptions.

Monthly reporting and the TaRMS digital platform

Operators are now required to file tax forms and remit payments monthly to the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA). Previously, the reporting regime was more lenient, which left more room for maneuver.

The central tool is the TaRMS digital system, which has upgraded and centralized the state’s tax accounting. Supporters of the reform emphasize that transparency has improved. Critics, however, point to an unintended consequence: the system puts noticeable pressure on more informal, cash-based businesses that did pay taxes. For them, the shift to monthly digital filing and documentation has become a serious administrative challenge.

Global trend and the South African case

Zimbabwe fits into a global wave: as digital betting grows, governments around the world are tightening regulation and raising taxes. However, the motivation differs.

• Mavhunga puts DeMbare into Chibuku quarterfinals
• Bulls to charge into Zimbabwe gold stocks
• Ndiraya concerned as goals dry up
• Letters: How solar power is transforming African farms

In South Africa, politicians openly acknowledged that higher taxes could reduce player spending and the sector’s revenue, and they saw it not as a side effect but as the goal. The emphasis there was on social harm reduction. Zimbabwean officials, by contrast, say they expect further growth in both the market and tax receipts, citing the sector’s steady momentum in recent years.

For players: winning becomes more expensive, and the temptation to go underground grows

In the short term, the 25% tax on winnings noticeably reduces net payouts. This is especially painful for players with regular small wins, for whom the tax burden eats into a significant share of their profits.

In the long term, analysts do not rule out some of the audience migrating to underground bookmakers and offshore online platforms, where taxes are simply not collected. Paradoxically, the drive to formalize the market may push some participants into the “grey” zone.

It is worth noting that the problem of players drifting into unregulated zones is far from unique to Zimbabwe. Canada, the United Kingdom, and a number of EU countries face the same challenge, albeit under very different economic conditions. For example, in the Canadian market, where iGaming is legalized at the provincial level, operators actively use welcome offers to keep audiences within the licensed market. 

According to industry review sites, no deposit bonuses at online casino attract millions of new users every year. And many register specifically on licensed platforms rather than moving to offshore competitors. Such marketing tools, in effect, act as a counterweight to the shadow market, giving legal operators a competitive advantage. The question is whether Zimbabwean companies, under the new tax burden, will be able to preserve at least some of these incentives for their customers.

Operators are revising bonuses and odds

The increase in the tax rate to 20% of gross revenue forces operators to overhaul their marketing. Bonus programs are being cut back, promotions are becoming more modest, and odds are being adjusted to be less favorable to players. All of this puts further pressure on customer loyalty and increases the risk of churn to unregulated alternatives. The pace of investment in the industry could slow as well.

Government optimism vs. market skepticism

The authorities are banking on the industry’s past growth rates, expect “millions” in additional revenue, and frame gambling as a form of entertainment that can benefit the economy with “careful management” and consumer protection. Market participants see it differently: in their view, the tax on winnings looks more like a tool to suppress demand, and the overall burden will accelerate the shift into the unlicensed segment.

A crackdown on the shadow market

The government anticipated this criticism. A course has already been announced to clamp down on illegal gambling and block offshore operators. The following have been brought in for oversight:

• Lotteries and Gaming Board;
• Office of the President and Cabinet;
• Ministry of Home Affairs;
• local police, including units in Harare.

Compliance checks have intensified noticeably in recent months.

Two scenarios for the near future

The optimistic case assumes that a more formalized market with clear rules and consumer protection will lead to stable spending “within their means,” industry growth, and an expanded tax base. The pessimistic scenario paints a different picture: a decline in the number of active players, slower growth and investment, and an outflow of the audience to offshore and underground options, where no taxes are paid at all.

The key indicator will be the release of financial data for the first quarter of 2026. These figures will show whether Harare’s optimism is justified, or whether the industry is responding to the reform differently than its authors intended.