WELCOME to the year 2026.
Zimbabwe is most likely to experience many things: the 2030 agenda, managing de-dollarisation, revitalising manufacturing sector and recalibrating its foreign policy.
Attempts to amend the Constitution so that President Emmerson Mnangagwa can remain in power beyond the constitutionally permissible tenure ending in 2028 will remain a big issue.
It will take some of the energy needed in revitalising the economy as personal interests within Zanu PF come to the fore.
Constitutional Amendment No. 3, if it comes, will potentially scrap term limits or extend the terms for up to seven years.
It remains unclear why Mnangagwa would want an extra two years.
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However, the process to amend the Constitution will not be a smooth ride.
The matter is likely to end up in the Constitutional Court.
Chief Justice Luke Malaba term is coming to an end by mid-year.
Will he play a crucial role in the determination of the matter?
If not, will Mnangagwa soon start the process of appointing a new Chief Justice?
But one thing remains certain in the New Year: the jostling for Mnangagwa’s successor will take a lot of time for ministers who want to curry favour with the Mnagagwa.
Government business may suffer in the process.
Citizens should brace for irrational, populist decisions or even gridlock.
Elsewhere, in the past week, Zimbabweans and the world were told that our gold production in 2025 hit the high mark of plus 45 tonnes.
This number means a lot.
For starters, we will be told that foreign currency reserves are on the upward trend.
This will be used to accelerate the process of de-dollarisation that Treasury has been tasked with.
However, the process will be derailed by the appetite domestically of consuming imported products from food, fuel to luxury vehicles.
This will be coupled with Zimbabwe’s rising sovereign debt.
It remains to be seen how Zimbabwe deals with the debt question, which to all intents and purposes is now unsustainable.
Therefore, on the face of it, de-dollarisation remains a pipe-dream that will in the long run remain a big stumbling block to economic development as there will be no certainty.
Rebuilding the country’s manufacturing base is another headache that Treasury will deal with.
Zimbabwe currently relies on two sectors: minerals exports and diaspora remittances.
These two are the main foreign currency earners.
On the other hand, the country’s imports are surging, leaving very little for major retooling of industries.
Will manufacturers go for cheaper foreign debts in hard currencies when the currency remains fluid?
The answer is in the negative, except when one is a big multi-national company that has other forex raising avenues.
In other words, the dual economy, as reflected by the two stock exchanges — Victoria Falls Stock Exchange and Zimbabwe Stock Exchange — will continue and possibly tilt the de-dollarisation debate towards the continued status quo of multi-currencies.
International developments such as the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict, the United States invasion of Venezuela and the lingering threat of the US annexing Greenland will also affect developing economies like Zimbabwe.
The Ukraine war has affected agriculture supply lines across the world, especially in areas like fertilisers and grain.
It has pushed up the costs of grain and agriculture inputs.
This is likely to continue until the situation is resolved.
On the other hand, coffers of most European countries, the primary source of overseas development assistance, have dried up those countries are now more concerned about their own security and helping Ukraine defend itself.
It, therefore, follows that many African countries, including Zimbabwe, will have to rely on internal resources for development.
The Venezuela question will most likely not only trigger a rise in oil prices across the globe, but also bring a period of anxiety and breakdown in international law.
For the first time, the world faces a real risk of re-organisation of political power and a shift in geo-politics.
A race for resources similar to the colonial era is unfolding in slow motion.
It will be interesting how Africa and Zimbabwe in particular will play its foreign policy.
The mantra of “a friend to all and an enemy to none” is over, and Zimbabwe will have to pick sides.
Does the present leadership have the capacity and dexterity to navigate this period?
The answer will reveal itself in 2026.
It would be remiss not to bring domestic opposition politics into the equation.
Opposition political parties in Zimbabwe are fractious and in disarray.
They have failed to present and coalesce citizens on what they stand for rather than what they oppose.
This lapse has always given Zanu PF the opportunity to breathe and reconfigure or renew itself before general elections.
Will some activists and politicians see this as an opportunity to launch a new political party to unite and project a new vision for Zimbabwe?
Will such a new party gain traction and recalibrate our politics, which generally can now be said to be all neoliberal?
Zimbabwe’s political space is currently 50 shades of neoliberalism.
Going into agriculture, by the first week of 2026, many maize producing districts had a fairly good crop.
If Zimbabwe does not experience a long dry spell in late January to mid-February, the likelihood of bumper harvest is high.
Food security remains key for national development.
It remains important that Parliament should remain wary and hold the Executive accountable in 2026.
They have to pick and focus on real issues, including those discussed in this article.
Parliament should not lose ball or seek to appease the Executive in exchange for freebies and trinkets at the expense of national development.
In conclusion, 2026 is defining year Zimbabwe.
The choices made now will have an impact for the next decade, if leadership chooses to be self-serving than serving the people.
Let new leaders emerge and salvage the situation or lay the groundwork for future generation.
Time to sit on the fence is over.
Happy New Year.
- Paidamoyo Muzulu is a journalist based in Harare. He writes here in his personal capacity.