THE southern African region is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period of October to December this year amid high expectations of good yields after a disastrous 2023/24 agricultural season.
The region was affected by an El Nino-induced drought that saw most of the region endure long dry spells that decimated crops before a marked improvement in the 2024/25 season.
In a statement after the 31st Southern African Regional Outlook Forum (SARCOF 31) held in Lusaka, Zambia, permanent representative of Zambia with WMO (PR) and director of Zambia Meteorological Department, Edson Nkonde, said only the western fringes of Namibia would receive below-normal rainfall.
“The remainder of the region is likely to receive normal to below normal rainfall during this period of the 2025/26 season, including the island States of Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles,” he said.
“The period of January to March (JFM) 2026 is expected to have normal to above normal rainfall for most of the region except for northern parts of the region (Angola, DRC and Tanzania), where normal to below normal rainfall is expected.
“Above normal rainfall is expected in the south-western parts of the region while the bulk of Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles are expected to receive normal to above rainfall with Comoros receiving normal to below normal rainfall during the JFM 2026 period.”
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Nkonde said the weather outlook for the entire 2025/26 rainfall season indicated that temperatures were expected to be mostly above long-term averages over the whole of Sadc, except for central parts of the region.
“The ENSO [El Niño-Southern Oscillation] is projected to reach a weak La Niña phase during the forecast period,” he said.
“Another driver affecting Sadc’s regional climate, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase and is forecasted to transition into a negative phase and later return to neutral phase towards the end of the 2025-26 rainfall season."
Nkonde said the outlook was relevant only to seasonal (overlapping three-monthly) timescales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability, such as local and month-to-month variations (intra-seasonal).
“As such, it must not be interpreted as indicating probable rainfall anomalies at sub-regional, country-level and local spatial scales, and at shorter — sub-seasonal (monthly) time scales.
“Users are strongly advised to contact the national meteorological and hydrological services for interpretation of this regional outlook and for additional guidance, and national updates,” he said.