THE warning issued by the Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe over the possible emergence of an El Niño phenomenon during the 2026-27 agricultural season must not be treated as just another routine weather advisory.
It is an early signal of potential hardship that demands urgent planning and decisive intervention from the government.
If forecasts pointing to an 88% to 94% likelihood of El Niño conditions materialising prove accurate, Zimbabwe could once again face below-normal rainfall, poor harvests, water shortage and increased food insecurity.
“The Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department has noted recent updates from global climate forecasting centres indicating a high probability, ranging from 88% to 94%, that an El Niño event will develop during the 2026-27 rainy season,” it said.
“Historically, El Niño conditions in Zimbabwe carry a 65% chance of below-normal rainfall, which can lead to drier-than-average conditions.
“However, the department notes that forecasts made early in the year face a ‘spring predictability barrier’, meaning atmospheric and oceanic conditions could still change significantly before the season begins.”
The country has experienced an El Niño phenomenon before, and the consequences are often devastating for ordinary citizens, particularly those living from hand to mouth.
The reality is that many Zimbabweans are still recovering from the harsh effects of the 2024-25 rainy season.
In both urban and rural communities, countless households struggled to secure even a single decent meal a day.
Families were forced to skip meals, sell livestock and household property or rely on remittances and aid to survive.
Against such a background, the government cannot afford to wait until crops fail before taking action.
Preparedness must be established now.
Authorities should immediately start strengthening food reserves and procuring subsidised mealie-meal and other basic commodities ahead of the rainy season.
Early procurement helps to avoid panic buying, shortages and price spikes that usually characterise drought periods.
More importantly, it provides relief to vulnerable households whose incomes are already being eroded by the high cost of living.
Transport costs continue to rise, driven partly by global geopolitical tensions, including the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, which has pushed up fuel prices internationally.
Internally, numerous taxes and levies continue to burden transport operators and consumers alike.
The combined effect is higher prices for food and essential goods across the country.
In times of a looming crisis, governments are expected to prepare citizens for economic shocks.
This support should not be determined by political affiliation, geographical location or social status.
Hunger does not discriminate.
A struggling family in a rural opposition stronghold deserves the same assistance as one in an urban constituency aligned to the ruling party.
The State must, therefore, ensure that social protection programmes are adequately funded and efficiently administered.
The Department of Social Welfare and the Department of Civil Protection should be allocated sufficient resources to prepare for possible food shortages, water stress and humanitarian emergencies.
Beyond food aid, government should also invest in drought mitigation measures such as rehabilitation of irrigation schemes, drilling of boreholes, water harvesting projects and support for climate-smart agriculture.
Farmers should be encouraged to grow drought-resistant crops and be provided seed and farming inputs timely.
The warning offers Zimbabwe an opportunity to act before disaster strikes.
Failure to prepare deepens poverty, hunger and suffering among vulnerable communities.
What citizens need now is not complacency, but proactive leadership focused on protecting livelihoods and preserving dignity.