The April 2026 report by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has sounded a worrying alarm: southern Africa faces a high probability of severe weather disruption in 2027 due to a projected Super El Niño.
The climate phenomenon, commonly associated with drought and heatwaves, is expected to emerge in mid-2026 and persist through 2027.
Scientists warn it could suppress normal rainfall across central and southern Africa, raising the risk of severe drought, water scarcity and agricultural disruption.
For Zimbabwe, the implications are stark.
A severe drought similar to the El Niño-induced crisis of the 2023-24 season could again push millions into food insecurity.
When drought strikes, the pattern is familiar: maize harvests collapse, livestock die and rural communities suffer the most.
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Food prices rise, household budgets are stretched and the government declares a disaster while appealing for international assistance and importing grain. A predictable national risk continues to be treated as a surprise.
Warnings about a possible Super El Niño in the 2026-27 agricultural season must, therefore, not be taken lightly. Even if the weather conditions ultimately prove less severe, the message is clear: Zimbabwe must prepare for the worst.
Climate shocks are no longer rare events; they are the new normal.
Farmers across rural Zimbabwe are already reporting erratic weather patterns — sudden rains after intense heat, shortened growing seasons and unpredictable rainfall. For smallholder farmers who depend largely on rain-fed agriculture, this uncertainty directly threatens food security.
The 2025-26 agricultural season was expected to bring recovery. Instead, erratic rains and a mid-season dry spell left many rural households with little to harvest.
Preparation must start with water.
Zimbabwe has thousands of small and medium dams, most of them more than 90% full. Yet the country remains heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture because irrigation infrastructure remains underdeveloped.
Expanding irrigation must, therefore, become a national priority. This requires rehabilitating canals, installing solar-powered pumps and ensuring irrigation schemes function effectively. Agriculture must become a year-round activity.
Without reliable irrigation, every farming season becomes a gamble.
Zimbabwe must also rethink what it grows.
For decades, the country has relied heavily on maize despite its vulnerability to drought. Climate resilience demands greater emphasis on traditional grains such as sorghum, millet and rapoko, which are better suited to dry conditions.
These crops must receive the same policy support, market incentives and research investment that maize enjoys. Food security cannot depend on a single crop.
Early warning systems must also be strengthened. Farmers need timely weather information and practical guidance on adapting their farming practices.
Agricultural extension services — once a pillar of Zimbabwe’s farming success — have weakened and must be revived if climate adaptation strategies are to reach rural communities.
Preparation must extend beyond crops.
Drought devastates livestock herds, wiping out years of investment for rural households. Zimbabwe should begin investing now in fodder production, hay reserves and water points for livestock before dry conditions intensify.
Resilience must replace reaction.
Government officials are correct that forecasts can change and that it may be too early to make definitive projections about the 2026-27 season. But uncertainty is precisely the reason why preparation is necessary.
The cost of preparation may be high, but the cost of inaction is far greater.
If Zimbabwe prepares and the drought does not materialise, the country will still benefit from stronger irrigation systems, resilient crops and improved agricultural infrastructure.
If it fails to prepare and the worst happens, the consequences will be severe: hunger, economic strain and renewed dependence on food aid at a time when donor fatigue is growing.
Zimbabwe must hope for the best — but prepare for the worst.