IF debt were a mirror of truth, Zimbabwe’s reflection would be cloudy.
Once again, the country finds itself caught between what Zimbabwe’s Treasury says the country owes and what multi-lateral financial institutions say.
Finance minister Mthuli Ncube last week said the country’s total public debt stood at US$22,6 billion by mid-2025. This comes as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank estimated it at about US$23,3 billion at the end of 2024.
These may sound like competing spreadsheets, but the implications are serious: Zimbabwe’s financial books are not reconciling with its creditors’ ledgers, eroding faith in official data.
To make matters worse, Afreximbank projects the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio to reach 72% by 2026, up from 67% this year, as the government piles on fresh borrowing.
For the World Bank, it estimates this ratio to reach 64,6% by year-end and 59% next year, while IMF forecasts 45% and 41,6%, respectively.
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The contradiction is glaring; while Zimbabwe touts its Structured Dialogue Platform as proof of re-engagement and reform, its debt reporting continues to fall short of international standards.
IMF has diplomatically noted that although progress has been made, the debt reporting system remains outdated and incomplete.
Key liabilities — from local governments, State enterprises and pension funds — are excluded, giving a distorted picture of the true fiscal burden.
The country’s debt management system, last updated in 2021, cannot even track all categories of obligations.
In other words, Zimbabwe is negotiating debt relief without knowing, in full, what it owes.
Such opacity is more than a technical flaw; it is a credibility wound.
Fiscal transparency is the bedrock of trust between a borrower and lender.
When the same government presents three different debt figures in six months, lenders cannot help, but wonder what else is being massaged.
For a country seeking bridge financing and arrears clearance, this inconsistency is self-defeating.
Creditors will not write off what they cannot verify and they will not lend to who they cannot trust.
Domestically, the cost is no less severe.
Citizens are urged to “tighten belts” for fiscal consolidation, but those sacrifices lose moral force when the State’s accounting looks slippery.
Public debt affects everyone — it determines inflation, exchange rate and the prices of essentials.
When there are different data on how much a country has borrowed and from whom, accountability vanishes and suspicion takes its place.
Should Zimbabwe’s arrears grow further or its economy falters, the consequences could have ripple effects on the region’s financial stability.
The lender may continue to extend credit under secured arrangements, but such dependence risks mortgaging the country’s economic sovereignty in the long run, as seen by the government increasingly using Zimbabwe’s resources as collateral for debt.
But there is a way out, and it starts with radical honesty.
Treasury must reconcile its debt records with those of multilateral and bilateral partners and commission a comprehensive, independent audit of public liabilities.
Every debt instrument, from Treasury Bills to parastatal guarantees, should be captured under a unified system that meets Public Sector Debt Statistics standards.
The country’s path to debt resolution depends not just on reforms written in communiqués, but on numbers that stand up to scrutiny.
Zimbabwe’s real debt problem, in the end, is not just the billions it owes — it is the truth it withholds.