Since the World Trade Organisation (WTO)’s creation in 1995, the globalised trading system has driven the world’s economic growth, technology and development.
Trade volumes rose five-fold. Over a billion people were lifted out of extreme poverty. New corridors of commerce and prosperity emerged that did not exist before.
The WTO’s rules-based framework made that possible.
But the world today is different from that of the era that heralded globalisation. Geopolitical uncertainty, strategic rivalry and conflict — in combination with the onset of long-term disruptors: digital adoption, environmental degradation, and demographic change — have led to seismic shifts in the way global trade is conducted.
These shifts, rightly, raise questions around the relevance, efficacy, flexibility and fairness of the rules that underpin global trade flows. Deep strains and fragmentation in the global trading system, and uncertainty about the relevance of the WTO as the global rule-making trade body, have emerged. This puts the rules-based global trading system at a critical juncture.
Today’s challenge is not to defend the trading system of the past. It is to prevent the gradual erosion of the system we rely on.
For businesses and consumers, WTO rules are not abstract constructs. They underpin investment decisions worth billions. When they are bypassed enforcement falters, confidence plummets, trade frictions increase and the goods and services that economies rely on are subject to barriers and higher costs.
We have already seen a four-fold increase in global trade restrictions since the financial crisis. Should this fragmentation continue, the rising costs will fall hardest on consumers and smaller economies.
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This is why an effective and functioning global trading system, with stable, predictable, transparent and well-designed rules and norms, underpinned by a WTO with the confidence of its members, is so critical.
The answer is not a retreat from the global rules-based framework, but its ambitious renewal. The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Cameroon on March 26 provides a generational opportunity for members to rise to this challenge.
Three areas must be addressed.
First, the WTO must be able to reach agreements. In doing so, it should move beyond the pursuit of ‘unanimity as consensus’ in its rulemaking. Unanimity is not strictly required under WTO rules, yet a unanimity-by-default approach has allowed it to become a catch-all justification for inaction.
With 166 members at varying levels of development and differing strategic priorities, consensus on every issue was never realistically achievable. Pragmatic and inclusive plurilateral agreements — open to all who wish to participate and anchored in transparency — offer a practical way forward. The focus should be on workable solutions that avoid paralysis, and rules that complement, not replace, multilateral norms.
Second, WTO agreements must reflect the realities of modern trade. Services now account for a growing share of global commerce.
Digital trade, cross-border data flows and electronic documentation underpin supply chains. AI and blockchain technologies are enabling consumers to better access services at lower cost. Businesses are navigating a patchwork of digital regulations that risk creating inefficiencies and barriers where none need exist.
Third, the WTO must be able to impose consequences. The enforceability of rules must be restored with a functioning dispute resolution system governed by strict and enforceable deadlines.
This is essential for confidence, especially for smaller and mid-sized economies that rely on rules rather than leverage. If rules cannot be enforced, they will not be respected.
A functioning, modern and trusted WTO is not a nostalgic idea, it is a practical necessity in a world where economic interdependence remains profound, even as geopolitics grows more contested. Inaction to address the challenges the global system faces risks further fragmentation, rising trade costs, greater vulnerability, reduced resilience, and diminished economic growth for all.
The next phase of global growth will be driven increasingly by emerging markets. Reform must strengthen their capacity to participate in negotiations, use dispute settlement and integrate into digital and services trade.
Special and differential treatment should be more targeted and development-focused, ensuring flexibility where it is genuinely needed.
And as governments pursue climate objectives and industrial transformation, transparency and dialogue within the WTO framework are essential to prevent well-intentioned policies from escalating into subsidy races or green protectionism. The transition to net zero will require unprecedented investment and co-ordination. A more effective WTO can help manage these tensions.
The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference is a test of whether members recognise what is at stake. It is crucial that all countries engage meaningfully with the reform process and agree a comprehensive pathway to a more equitable and effective trading system.
Renewal will require compromise, but the cost of inaction carries far greater risks. Business stands ready to support that effort. CNBC Africa
