IT is early Wednesday morning when Chengetai Mushongahande looks confused as weather patterns shift within a few minutes, plunging her plans into disarray.
Mushongahande, a widow caring for five grandchildren, lives in ward 6 under Guruve Rural District Council in Mashonaland West, about 200 kilometres from Harare.
She is one of several Zimbabweans struggling to make sense of the increasingly unpredictable weather pattern experienced across the country and the southern Africa region.
“We have experienced high temperatures of late, but within a few minutes, we get some rain. Just as we get home, there is sunshine,” Mushongahande said.
“The weather is no longer predictable.”
Zimbabweans are bracing for an increasingly uncertain weather pattern, with concerns mounting over potential drought and heatwaves.
Climate projections warning of a possible Super El Niño event in 2026-27 have heightened fears of severe drought, heat stress and agricultural disruption across southern Africa, placing smallholder farmers at the centre of growing uncertainty over food security.
According to the latest forecast, a drought is looming in Zimbabwe and neighbouring countries.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) April 2026 report indicates that southern Africa faces a high probability of severe weather disruption in 2027 due to a projected Super El Niño, which is associated drought and heatwaves.
“There will be suppression of normal rainfall in central and southern Africa, leading to high risks of agricultural disruption, severe drought and water scarcity,” the report said.
According to ECMWF, key projected impacts for the 2027 season include severe drought and heatwaves.
“Super El Niño conditions include sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that could exceed 2.5°C above normal, creating one of the most intense warming events in recent history,” the report read.
The phenomenon is expected to emerge in mid-2026 and persist through 2027, with indications of severe drought and heatwaves.
The report warns that central and southern Africa will experience suppressed rainfall, leading to high risks of agricultural disruption, water scarcity and food insecurity.
It also projects record high temperatures, with 2027 forecast to be among the hottest years on record globally, alongside intensified heatwaves across the region.
Despite an overall dry trend, the Super El Niño may still produce sporadic severe weather events.
Zimbabwe Tobacco Growers Association president George Seremwe called for urgent investment in irrigation and water infrastructure to safeguard food security and cash crops, including tobacco.
“It’s such a sad reality. We need to invest in irrigation capacity since we have water bodies that are not being utilised," he said .
“We may build more dams, but we must also prepare a usable and well-maintained mitigation system under an irrigation model.
“If done well, food security is guaranteed and can also support exports as a potential regional buffer for food sustainability.”
Seremwe urged farmers to strengthen irrigation systems to boost productivity.
“Government must come in and subsidise fuel for farmers. We must be prepared for unpredictable weather patterns as a nation,” he said.
Independent sustainable development consultant Anna Braizer, who works with local and international NGOs promoting climate-resilient agriculture, said food security this year could be severely threatened by El Niño conditions, combined with global geopolitical tensions affecting fertiliser supplies and food prices.
“In response to these issues, the government should strengthen policies towards food sovereignty so that consumers are less dependent on imports,” she said.
“There must be a concerted shift away from fossil fuel-dependent agriculture and food production.”
Braizer said prioritising food crops over cash and export crops was essential.
“The drive to plant traditional grains and legumes, which are more drought-tolerant, should be ramped up with market incentives over maize,” she said.
Braizer added that local authorities should invest in water harvesting systems such as swales to capture moisture across catchments and improve soil retention.
Cover crops such as lablab bean and velvet bean, she said, should be introduced between cereals to conserve soil moisture and reduce temperatures.
“Small intensive fields should be encouraged in preference to large fields that are less manageable and more vulnerable to failure,” Braizer said.
“Perennial crops such as pigeon pea and moringa should be planted on contours and between fields to support moisture retention during dry spells.”
Braizer emphasised the need for improved early warning systems and farmer communication.
“Supplementary livestock feeding will be crucial this year,” she said.
Farmers, Braizer added, should be trained to produce bush feed using indigenous fodder such as acacia pods and pilostigma thonningii, mixed with millet and sorghum, as well as silage and hay production for the dry season.
However, a government official downplayed the concerns, saying it is too early to make projections for the 2026-27 season.
The chief director in the Environment, Climate and Wildlife ministry, Washington Zhakata, said it was premature to discuss the 2026-27 season as assessments for the 2025-26 season were underway.
“Sadc will do an analysis and provide a position for the next season,” he said.
“El Niño events are also not always associated with droughts across the region. What we are working on currently is a detailed assessment of the current season that will inform the coming season with respect to indicators for the next round of forecasts.”
