Recent confirmation from the Russian Security Council validates what many analysts have concluded since hostilities began: the US “ceasefire” with Iran is a tactical illusion, not a strategic retreat.
The two‑week lull in fighting is not de‑escalation, as Western media claim, but a logistical pause for the Pentagon to replenish dangerously depleted interceptor missile stocks—stretched thin by simultaneous support for Israel and Ukraine.
This analysis argues that US aggression against Iran serves three interconnected goals:
1. To control strategic energy chokepoints and cripple China’s economy;
2. To install a compliant regime in Tehran as a foothold for confrontation with Beijing;
3. To demonstrate military dominance and intimidate resource‑rich nations of the Global South.
For Africa—especially mineral powers like Zimbabwe, DRC, Namibia, and Mali—the Iran crisis is a dress rehearsal for a far larger battle over critical resources.
The official narrative claims the US confronts Iran over its nuclear program, missile capabilities, or regional alliances.
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This is at best a half‑truth; at worst, deliberate misdirection. Iran is not the prize. Iran is the chokepoint. China is the target.
Nearly half of China’s energy imports come from West Asia, and most pass through the Strait of Hormuz. By destabilising Iran, Washington can disrupt China’s energy supply without direct conflict—a form of large‑scale attrition warfare.
This strategy extends across multiple theatres:
- Ukraine: Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure undermine global energy stability.
- Venezuela: US pressure aims to control the world’s largest oil reserves.
- Indonesia & the Strait of Malacca: Approximately 80% of China’s oil imports flow through the Strait of Malacca. US naval access and defence partnerships in the region give Washington the ability to disrupt this critical artery.
Together, these chokepoints form the jugular of China’s industrial economy.
The confrontation has already hit African economies. Rising fuel prices, supply chain disruptions, and inflation are widespread across east and west Africa.
South Sudan has imposed electricity rationing; airlines face crippling jet‑fuel costs; and shipping lines are diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding cost and delay.
Africa’s initial response has reflected a clear Global South perspective: South Africa has resisted US pressure to abandon Iran; Somalia joined Pakistan and China in supporting a Russian UN Security Council resolution for an immediate ceasefire.
But Africa must understand: this is not only a Middle Eastern crisis. US regime‑change policy is tied to resource capture—and Africa holds the 21st‑century treasure chest.
The DRC holds around 70% of the world’s cobalt, essential for electric vehicles, AI, and defense systems. Zimbabwe possesses major reserves of lithium, platinum group metals, and rare earth elements. Africa holds 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves.
In February 2026, the U.S. launched the first critical minerals ministerial and announced Project Vault, a US$12 billion strategic stockpile.
Washington has set a January 2027 deadline to reduce reliance on Chinese‑processed critical minerals—official policy enshrined in US and EU legislation.
The pattern is now clear:
- In Ukraine, a 2025 deal linked US military aid to access to lithium deposits.
- In the DRC, a US-brokered peace accord provided Washington access to cobalt, copper, and lithium while carrying few binding security guarantees.
- In Angola, US firms are positioning to take over rare earth projects.
This is neo-colonialism with a modern balance sheet: peace diplomacy as cover for resource control.
The recent US-brokered DRC-Rwanda settlement allowed Western consortia to secure large stakes in Congolese mines.
For Zimbabwe, with its vast lithium resources, this pattern is a direct warning.
The US has shifted to economic warfare against Iran, threatening secondary sanctions on any country or bank transacting with Tehran.
At the same time, it is engineering “peace deals” in Africa to lock in mineral access.
As the 2027 deadline nears, the U.S. is accelerating its drive to secure rare earths and critical minerals—with Africa as its prime target.
Resource‑rich African nations cannot afford to be passive.
Africa must reject the Faustian bargain of “security access for mining rights” that has led to external interference and regime change in other nations.
Instead, African countries must pursue a structured, multilateral security and economic framework.
Key elements include:
1. Collective security guarantees: Formal, public commitments from China and Russia to uphold territorial integrity and political sovereignty against external aggression, proxy warfare, and subversion.
2. Joint military cooperation: Regular exercises and institutionalized intelligence sharing to strengthen continental defense.
3. De‑Weaponized Finance: Diversify away from U.S.-dominated payment systems and reduce exposure to unilateral sanctions.
Africa’s agenda must be clear:
- Reject the resource‑for‑security trap;
- Strengthen Pan-African unity under the African Union;
- Secure partnerships that respect sovereignty, not regime change.
China’s measured response is not weakness. With strategic oil reserves covering more than 120 days of imports, China can absorb short-term disruptions.
Chinese vessels have already tested U.S. restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating resolve.
Beyond energy, the critical minerals race defines this era. China refines more than 60%of the world’s lithium and cobalt and controls nearly 90% of rare earth processing.
Washington’s mineral strategy is explicitly designed to break this dominance—and Africa is the battlefield.
The ceasefire mirage in the Middle East is a warning to Africa.
The global fight over energy and critical minerals has reached our continent. Zimbabwe, the DRC, Zambia, and Namibia hold the foundations of the green and digital global economy.
We must not allow our resources to be looted under the banner of peace or security.
Africa’s future lies in sovereignty, continental solidarity, and strategic partnerships that respect our national interests. Now is the time to act.
*Donald Jairos is a counter-terrorism and security analyst based in Harare
