Last month, Afrobarometer, a major research network, presented findings of the eighth round of surveys on public attitudes regarding democracy and governance conducted in Zimbabwe.
BY ALEX MAGAISA
The survey covered several areas seeking public opinion on issues such as the country’s general direction and economic situation, government’s performance, the response to the Covid-19 pandemic, trust in public institutions, political party affiliation, and voting intentions.
This is important data which, according to Afrobarometer, represents what Zimbabweans are thinking.
Afrobarometer describes itself as a “pan-African, non-partisan, non-profit survey research network that provides reliable data on Africans’ experiences and evaluations of quality of life, governance, and democracy.”
It claims on its website to be “the world’s leading source of high-quality data on what Africans are thinking.”
The research network began work in 1999, initially covering 12 African countries.
The latest round of surveys covered 34 countries across Africa. It is, therefore, a useful source of data for comparative research.
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Afrobarometer works through a network system. It has national partners in the different countries where it conducts surveys.
It is these national partners that carry out the surveys.
In Zimbabwe, Afrobarometer’s national partner is the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) founded by the late Masipula Sithole.
I have given this background so that the reader has a better picture of the source of the report that is being reviewed.
The first indicator in the Afrobarometer report is how Zimbabweans see the direction of the country under the current government.
Two-thirds of Zimbabweans feel that the country is going in the wrong direction while 72% describe the economic situation as bad.
Additionally, 62% of Zimbabweans say their personal living conditions are bad.
Only 35% were optimistic that the country would be better in 12 months, which leaves nearly two-thirds of the population in the hopeless category.
Ratings of government performance are bad overall with job creation topping the list of underperformances at 91% followed by failure to maintain price stability supported by 78% of the people.
A big 69% do not think the government is managing the economy well while 77% say the government is failing to address the needs of young people.
These are damning statistics that demonstrate the dire social and economic situation in the country and the lack of confidence in the current government.
When President Mnangagwa took over in November 2017 after his predecessor Robert Mugabe was deposed in a coup, most Zimbabweans were hopeful that the country would experience better fortunes.
The fact that 72% now feel that the country is heading in the wrong direction is a vote of no confidence in the regime.
The bleak public opinion is backed by indicators relating to the levels of poverty in the country.
Afrobarometer found that 87% of the people went without cash income several times or always over the previous 12 months.
People in the rural areas were the most affected with 91% saying they had experienced this problem while 79% of urban residents were impacted.
A lot of citizens complained of severe shortages of basic commodities and services. For example, 52% went without food several times over the past year while 51% complained of a shortage of clean water.
Most of those who complained of lack of clean water were urban residents (62%). Fifty-five percent had gone without medical care several times.
These indicators show that there are high levels of poverty across the country but especially in the rural areas.
No amount of pride can obscure the fact that Zimbabwe falls in a group of poor countries.
Although the Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated the problem, the lack of cash income reflects an on-going problem that existed long before the current challenges.
The Afrobarometer report shows that 47% of the people lost a job or business due to the pandemic with most of those affected being in the urban areas (57%) largely due to the lockdown rules which resulted in the closure of businesses for months during the year.
The higher levels of poverty make the population more vulnerable to political opportunists.
For years, the ruling party has weaponised poverty as an electioneering tool.
Food aid to vulnerable communities has been used to buy votes, attributing the largesse to the ruling party rather than to the taxpayer.
As the country heads for the next elections, the high levels of poverty are likely to be exploited as support for communities will be politicised.
There are several things that I would have liked to see measured in the survey.
For example, the impact of the good agricultural season, how the fights in the opposition have affected public attitudes towards it, public views on issues like elections, targeted sanctions, whether they think the country is better or worse after the November 2017 watershed moment, public attitudes towards the military’s role in politics and changes to the constitution, and the performance of constitutional commissions such as the National Peace and Reconciliation Commission.
But Zimbabweans must not wait for research networks like Afrobarometer to carry out such surveys.
Nevertheless, having studied and analysed the latest Afrobarometer report, and considering the conceptual understandings of indicators as a technology of governance, the following conclusions are relevant:
- Most Zimbabweans feel that the country is going in the wrong direction and there are increasing levels of poverty.
- Nevertheless, the ruling party retains a slight edge over the opposition, although this has to be qualified by the fact that a large number of respondents refused to answer the question or claimed that they were not aligned to any political party.
- The fact that there is a large number that refused to answer the question or said they did not know the answer or claimed to be non-aligned shows that there is a large pool of undecided voters that remain to be convinced by the parties.
- Zimbabwe is still effectively a two-party system with Zanu PF and the MDC led by Chamisa dominating the political space.
Future electoral battles will still be between those two giants. The MDC led by Mwonzora barely registers on the political scale.
- Zanu PF may reap dividends from its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic which more people have approved. Although it might not be satisfactory, the public appears to have given the government the benefit of the doubt.
- However, the dividend might be reduced by the citizens’ view that there has been a diversion of resources by corruption during the pandemic.
- There has been greater tolerance toward restrictions of democratic rights and freedoms, such as by-elections and political gatherings due to the pandemic. This tolerance might be exploited by the ruling party, providing more room to expand and deepen authoritarian rule.
- The pandemic has left most people poorer and vulnerable, leaving them open to political manipulation. Young people particularly feel neglected.
- Perhaps the most telling indicator is that a significant number of the citizens have lost trust in the elected institutions. Instead, they place their trust in the unelected institutions.
This is not a new trend in Zimbabwe, but it confirms the crisis of democracy in the country and state failure.
It is a severe indictment on politicians and the political processes that the people they purport to govern and whose mandate they claim to enjoy do not trust them at all and prefer NGOs, their priests and chiefs, all of whom are unelected.
- This is an abridged version of Alex Magaisa’s latest Big Saturday Read blog
