Zimbabwe’s dollar-indexed Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) is poised to outperform its much older peer, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE), this year, with growth of up to 20%, according to a leading advisory.
The projection, contained in the Zimbabwe Economic, Investment & Market Outlook 2026 by the African Business Chamber (AfBC), underscores a widening gap between the two bourses as tight liquidity and restrictive macroeconomic policy weigh on the ZSE.
It also marks a shift in perceptions around the VFEX. When it launched in October 2020, the exchange was overshadowed by pessimism, with markets projecting a short lifespan and a drought in listings.
However, the bourse has endured, reflecting the resolve of chief executive officer Justin Bgoni, who held his ground as analysts took turns to present a gloomy outlook when the market went live.
“Zimbabwe’s capital markets … are projected to grow modestly in 2026,” Eugene Nizeyimana, AfBC chief executive officer and managing partner at SSCG Consulting, said.
“New listings, especially from the mining sector, the rise of real estate investment trusts (Reits), and greater participation from SMEs could deepen market activity.
“However, restricted liquidity and contractionary macro policy may limit significant price gains, particularly on the ZSE, while VFEX may see moderate advancement between 10% and 20%.”
Recent data already points to that divergence. Fincent Securities reported that the ZSE All Share Index slipped 0,16% month-on-month in March to 358,55 points, with the Top 10 and Top 15 indices down 0,58% and 1,02% respectively. Only the Medium Cap Index bucked the trend, rising 2,21%.
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Market capitalisation edged up 0,26%, while turnover rose 17,28% to ZiG2,83 billion, signalling improved participation despite weak price performance.
In contrast, the VFEX All Share Index jumped 11,51% to 249,86 points, pushing market capitalisation up 11,80% to US$2,97 billion. Turnover, however, fell sharply by 49,80% to US$15,32 million, suggesting the rally was largely price-driven.
The VFEX’s structure — offering foreign currency trading and tax incentives — continues to attract export-oriented firms, particularly in mining, while shielding investors from exchange rate volatility.
Fincent said the divergence is likely to persist, with the VFEX continuing to draw listings and capital inflows. Newly-listed counters such as Econet InfraCo, which began trading at the end of March, are expected to spur activity.
On the ZSE, trading remains concentrated in a handful of counters, with Delta and financial services firms such as CBZ expected to dominate turnover.
It is a sign of limited market depth, according to analysts.
Regulatory data paints a similar picture. The Securities and Exchange Commission of Zimbabwe said equities turnover fell 42,27% in the final quarter of 2025 to ZiG1,12 billion, down from ZiG1,95 billion in the previous quarter. By contrast, the Financial Securities Exchange recorded a 34,07% rise in turnover to ZiG7,00 million, albeit from a low base.
Nizeyimana said while new listings, Reits and SME participation could broaden the market, structural constraints remain.
“Institutional reforms and new investment instruments could broaden market depth, but investor confidence will depend on regulatory consistency, improved transparency, and stronger institutional frameworks,” he said.
The pressure is compounded by conditions in the banking sector. Although banks are better capitalised and non-performing loans are low, lending remains subdued.
“The financial sector in Zimbabwe is stabilising gradually, but remains constrained,” Nizeyimana said.
“Tight monetary policy and limited liquidity will shape credit conditions, particularly for local enterprises seeking finance. Banks are increasingly cautious, with credit expansion subdued amid liquidity limitations.”
For many firms, especially SMEs, access to affordable funding remains limited — leaving capital markets to carry a burden they are not yet deep enough to sustain.
AfBC said Zimbabwe’s longer-term prospects hinge on sustained macro-economic discipline, structural reforms and stronger institutions.
