ZIMBABWE experienced a hectic week.
Pressure against Constitutional Amendment No 3 is rising, the economy is facing inflationary headwinds and its all-weather friend, China, has spoken out about raw lithium export bans, sending shockwaves within government.
The Roman Catholic Church, one of the biggest churches in the country, voiced its concerns about the constitutional amendments without a referendum as bad for the country.
In a statement, the Catholic bishops said: “If these amendments genuinely serve the nation’s welfare, let the people affirm them. Matters of such gravity demand transparency, wide consultations, and where required, a referendum — honouring the constitution’s own protections —he Constitution belongs to every Zimbabwean; it must remain in their hands.”
This is a blunt statement.
The Catholic Church has stood by the people and supported the liberation struggle.
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One can go back into history and find how Bishop Lamont was deported from Rhodesia for supporting the struggle.
Therefore, the church’s message carries weight whichever way one looks at it.
It would be interesting if the police would go and disrupt the church meetings as it has done with civil society organisations which stand against the amendment.
The government would be in a quandary. Time will tell.
Will other churches such as the Anglicans, Lutherans and millennial pentacoastal churches join the fray?
If they do, what will be the government’s stance? Will the government backtrack on its mission?
Businessman and lawyer Tawanda Nyambirai, who last year suggested the Constitution could be amended without a referendum, has done a summersault.
Writing on X, Nyambirai posted: “Seeing the controversy generated by the proposed constitutional amendments, is it not time to consider a less divisive way forward that will allow a reset?”
He added: “The President could dissolve Parliament in terms of Section 158 as read with S143 of the Constitution and call for Parliamentary and Presidential elections before August 2026. No one is disqualified from contesting.
“The time served since August 2023 is less than 3 years and is thus not a term. Therefore, the incumbents will be entitled to contest without violating the Constitution. And the Constitution will be saved.”
Nyambirai’s new argument is constitutional plausible.
However, implementing it is fraught with political dangers.
Can President Emmerson Mnangagwa call for an election when Zanu PF is fraught with divisions about his continued leadership?
Does he feel confident to win such a poll?
My hazard is, Mnangagwa may play a zero-sum game and continue with a plan that does not make him face the electorate.
Former G40 kingpin, Saviour Kasukuwere waded into the matter arguing the amendments are useless and the succession matter should be resolved at a Zanu PF congress.
Kasukuwere posted on X: “My brother, @tawanda1, I salute your courage and observation that this matter is highly divisive and controversial.
“My take is that this is a Zanu PF succession matter and should be resolved at the congress. The Constitution should not be tampered with to resolve internal succession issues.”
Probably, this could the beginning of a spectacular collapse of the agenda 2030. It had no majority support and is losing traction before it even enters the august House for debate in June.
Like I wrote last week, this could be a long winter season.
The United States/Israel attacks on Iran have added a new layer of headache to the Zimbabwean government.
This week, the government raised the price of fuel by 39% and the economy has started to respond with increases in commuter fares in most urban areas.
The Zimbabwean workers are facing a torrid time, especially with the slave wages that do not meet monthly expenses for most workers.
They cannot absorb this astronomic bus fare increases.
Workers have voiced their objections to the fuel price increases on social media and strikes and demonstrations cannot be ruled out.
If they take place, the political temperatures will rise and the constitutional amendment will suffer the brunt of the people’s fury.
Reading the sentiment well, Presidential spokesman, George Charamba, posted on X that the government has heard the people’s objections and is doing something about it.
Charamba using his handle @Jamwanda2 posted: “Consolidating citizen request to the leadership: Thank you all who participated in the robust debate on fuel prices. I have been engaging intently and am ready for some simple, actionable summation: You request that your government looks at reducing the fuel-based tax to bring immediate relief to the hard-pressed citizenry. I hear you loud and clear and will faithfully transmit!”
It is clear that the government is concerned that its rapacious appetite for taxes and extravagance has to be tamed, the people cannot take it anymore.
Previous experiences of violent demonstration across the country like in 2019 have not been forgotten.
Zimbabwe cannot afford the looming inflation on the horizon.
If it reaches the shores there are two things that it will do.
It will cause inflation and the decimation of the economy and secondly, it will stop the de-dollarisation project dead in its tracks.
The third and final big moment of the week was China openly issuing a statement on the raw lithium ban by the government.
The Chinese embassy in Zimbabwe released a statement that intimated they were reviewing their position on investment in Zimbabwe.
China said: “The Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Zimbabwe reminds Chinese enterprises and nationals in Zimbabwe to further strengthen risk prevention and compliance awareness.”
It added: “Prior to making investments in Zimbabwe, investors shall conduct a comprehensive and in-depth assessment of the local business environment, industrial policies and relevant laws and regulations, fully consider various investment and operational risks, and make informed decisions so as to avoid losses resulting from government policy changes.”
Let’s break this down a bit.
What does “strengthen risk prevention”, “operational risks”, “to avoid losses resulting from government policy changes”, “adopt proactive risk prevention” and “protect their legitimate rights and interests through legal channels” mean?
In simple terms, China is reviewing their business relations with Zimbabwe and is not afraid to divest or even take Zimbabwe to international courts to recover their losses.
Zimbabwe cannot afford.
China has been the biggest investor in the natural resources sector.
The government for the first time is facing disappointed church, an angry citizenry and a furious dragon.
Will it abandon course and try med relations or they will die with the country?
I’m out!