CHINESE investors now control more than 80% of Zimbabwe’s lithium production, entrenching Beijing at the centre of the country’s lithium boom as a price crash wipes out jobs and exposes the sector’s reliance on foreign capital.
The scale of Chinese involvement — spanning mining, processing and export channels — comes as Zimbabwe’s lithium sector emerges from a sharp downturn that resulted in more than 1 000 job losses and forced companies to delay expansion plans after global prices collapsed from record highs.
In an interview with NewsDay recently, Innocent Rukweza, chairman of the Lithium Producers Association of Zimbabwe, said Chinese-linked firms dominate operating capacity across the industry.
“More than 80% of production is coming from Chinese-owned or Chinese-partnered projects,” he said.
“In fact, of all operational projects, they are effectively running production.”
The development highlights how Zimbabwe’s attempt to climb the value chain in critical minerals is being shaped by a narrow group of foreign investors with deep integration across extraction, processing and offtake markets.
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China’s dominance in Zimbabwe mirrors a broader global pattern in which its firms have moved aggressively to secure upstream control of lithium, cobalt and other inputs essential to the electric vehicle transition.
In Zimbabwe, that strategy has translated into a near-complete command of operational lithium assets.
The industry’s dependence on Chinese capital has been reinforced by extreme price volatility that exposed the fragility of the global lithium cycle.
Prices surged during the electric vehicle boom before falling sharply to around US$22 000 per tonne, triggering retrenchments, project delays and a reassessment of investment timelines.
However, Rukweza said more than 1 000 direct jobs were lost during the downturn.
“When prices went down, we lost more than 1 000 direct jobs,” he said.
“Companies had to lay off workers and some projects were delayed because of viability concerns.”
The shock sharpened the importance of large, vertically integrated players capable of surviving commodity cycles — a category in which Chinese firms have become dominant.
Despite the setback, Zimbabwe’s sector is now forecasting a strong rebound.
About US$2 billion in completed investments are already in place, with a further US$1,5 billion under development.
Export earnings are expected to reach US$1 billion this year, up from about US$500 million last year, as processing capacity expands.
But the composition of that growth is changing.
Zimbabwe’s 2022 ban on raw lithium exports was designed to force beneficiation and capture more value domestically.
Since then, export revenues have risen sharply, but the structure of production has remained heavily concentrated.
Rukweza said the shift from raw exports to processing has already transformed the sector’s economics.
“From about US$60 million in raw exports, we moved to more than US$500 million annually, and we are now targeting US$1 billion,” he said.
A key driver of the next phase is lithium sulphate — an intermediate product closer to battery-grade material — which is increasingly central to Zimbabwe’s industrial strategy.
One plant has already begun production, with the industry targeting about 50 000 tonnes as output scales up.
At least six beneficiation projects, mostly concentrators and sulphate plants, are under construction and expected to come online from 2027.
Yet, even as Zimbabwe moves further into processing, Chinese dominance remains largely intact across operational assets.
Industry estimates cited by Rukweza suggest Chinese firms control more than 80% of production capacity, with some mines fully owned and operated by Chinese companies and others run through joint ventures embedded across the supply chain.
“It is very much a Chinese phenomenon,” he said.
“They went through the whole supply chain.”
The remaining space is slowly being filled by emerging entrants, including Ghana-based Bravura and Zimbabwe’s State-linked Sandawana project, but these remain marginal compared with established Chinese operations.
The concentration of ownership raises longer-term questions about how much strategic control Zimbabwe will retain over a sector central to its economic ambitions.
Lithium is expected to be a key export earner for decades, driven by global demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
Yet the value chain — from extraction decisions to export destinations — is increasingly shaped outside the country.
Rukweza said the sector remains highly sensitive to pricing, warning that most operations struggle when lithium carbonate falls below about US$17 000 to US$18 000 per tonne.
“Below that level, it becomes very difficult to operate,” he said.