ZIMBABWE’S trade surplus is narrowing as imports grow faster than exports, latest data shows, raising concerns about the sustainability of the country’s external trade balance.
The widening gap between imports and exports reflects Zimbabwe’s continued reliance on foreign goods — particularly fuel, machinery and food — even as export earnings remain heavily concentrated in a few commodities — gold and tobacco.
Economists warn that unless the country expands value-added exports and strengthens domestic production, the shrinking surplus could eventually turn into a deficit, putting further pressure on foreign currency reserves.
According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) in its External Trade Statistics for February 2026, exports rose to US$1,01 billion, representing a 4,1% increase compared to the previous month. However, imports expanded at a significantly faster pace, rising 12% to US$963,1 million.
The faster growth in imports sharply reduced the country’s trade surplus. ZimStat reported that the trade balance for February stood at US$46,5 million, marking a 57,7% decline from the US$109,9 million surplus recorded in January 2026.
“In February 2026, exports increased to US$1,01 billion (4,1%) while imports increased to US$963,1 million (12%). The resulting trade balance amounted to a surplus of US$46,5 million, a 57,7% decrease from the January 2026 surplus of US$109,9 million,” read the report.
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The data shows that Zimbabwe’s export sector remains heavily reliant on mineral and agricultural commodities, with semi-manufactured gold alone contributing nearly half of export earnings. Industrial supplies accounted for 95,9% of total exports during the month.
Among the top 10 export products in February 2026 were semi-manufactured gold (45,7%), tobacco (27,5%) and other mineral substances (9%).
Within the Sadc bloc, the leading exports were nickel ores (28,3%), coke (11,7%) and industrial diamonds (10,1%), which together made up 50,1% of the total export value of US$130,6 million.
Exports to the European Union were dominated by tobacco, partly or wholly stemmed/stripped (38,2%), industrial diamonds (28,1%) and ferro-chromium (12,8%), accounting for 79,1% of the total US$14,7 million exported to the bloc.
Under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework, Zimbabwe’s major exports included nickel ores (27,4%), coke (11,4%), iron or steel products (10,2%) and industrial diamonds (9,8%), together contributing 59% of the total export value of US$134,7 million.
The United Arab Emirates emerged as Zimbabwe’s largest export destination, accounting for 46,4% of total export earnings, followed by China (34,3%), South Africa (9,8%), Indonesia (1,7%) and Zambia (1,4%.
“The five major countries accounted for about 94% of the total export value of US$1 010 million,” ZimStat said, noting that other destinations included Mozambique (1%) and Belgium (0,7%).
On the import side, industrial supplies accounted for the largest share at 35,6%, followed by capital goods (24%) and fuels and lubricants (18,3%).
Among the top imported products were mineral fuels (18,6%), machinery and mechanical appliances (14,9%), electrical machinery (9,1%), cereals (7,3%), and vehicles (6,7%).
Within Sadc, major imports included cereals (12,6%), machinery and mechanical appliances (12,5%), mineral fuels (6,6%), and iron and steel (6,4%), collectively accounting for about 40% of the total import value of US$435,2 million.
Imports from the European Union were led by machinery and mechanical equipment (22,5%), vehicles (15,7%), pharmaceutical goods (12,1%), and medical or surgical instruments (9,4%), contributing to US$21,5 million in imports from the bloc.
Similarly, imports under the AfCFTA framework were dominated by machinery and mechanical equipment, cereals, mineral fuels, iron and steel, and vehicles, together accounting for 37,8% of the total import value of US$441,1 million.
Imports from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) were valued at US$58,7 million, with key products including salt and sulphur (16,6%), cereals (11,2%), vehicles (9,3%), and electrical machinery (6,4%).
Zimbabwe’s import structure remains heavily concentrated among a few trading partners. South Africa accounted for 35,2% of imports, followed by China (22,4%), Bahrain (8,7%) and the Bahamas (3,8%).
“South Africa dominates imports with a 35,2% share. China (22,4%), Bahrain (8,7%), Bahamas (3,8%) follow as key suppliers. Together, the top four countries account for nearly 71% of total imports,” ZimStat said.
Other notable suppliers included Hong Kong (3,5%), the United Arab Emirates (3,5%) and Mozambique (3%).