Zimbabwe has been given something that many disaster-prone nations rarely receive — time.
The latest warning from the Global El Niño Southern Oscillation Analysis Cell is not a report of a disaster already unfolding; it is an opportunity to prepare before one does.
With scientists placing the probability of El Niño developing between June and August 2026 at 80%, and a 90% chance that it will persist through November, the country faces a sobering reality.
Another severe drought could be on the horizon, threatening food security, livelihoods and the broader economy.
The warning should not be viewed as a prediction of inevitable catastrophe, but as a call to action.
Zimbabwe's experience during the devastating 2023-24 El Niño drought remains fresh in the minds of millions.
Crops withered under relentless heat, livestock perished as grazing land disappeared, dams shrank to alarming levels, and nearly seven million Zimbabweans required humanitarian assistance.
Those scars have not fully healed, and many households are only beginning to rebuild their lives.
That is precisely why this latest forecast demands serious attention.
Climate forecasts have become increasingly accurate over the years. While no weather model can guarantee exactly how rainfall will behave, the growing confidence among climate scientists means governments, businesses, farmers and communities have valuable months to prepare.
The greatest tragedy would not be the drought itself—it would be failing to act despite having advance warning.
Agriculture remains the backbone of Zimbabwe's rural economy. Millions of households depend directly on rain-fed farming for both food and income.
Maize, the country's staple crop, is especially vulnerable to prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall.
If another El Niño season delivers below-normal rainfall, cereal production could once again decline sharply, forcing the country to increase food imports while driving up local food prices.
The ripple effects extend far beyond farming.
Reduced harvests mean higher inflation, increased pressure on foreign currency reserves through grain imports, reduced incomes for farming communities, and rising malnutrition among vulnerable children.
Businesses that depend on agricultural production—from transport operators to food processors and retailers—also suffer when harvests fail. In essence, drought becomes an economic crisis, not merely an agricultural one.
Water security also deserves urgent attention. Zimbabwe's urban centres have struggled with water shortages even during relatively normal rainfall seasons.
A prolonged drought would place additional pressure on already strained reservoirs, increasing competition between domestic, industrial and agricultural water users.
Rural communities that rely on boreholes and seasonal rivers may once again face long journeys to access safe drinking water.
Energy production cannot be ignored either. Hydropower generation depends heavily on adequate water levels.
Low inflows into reservoirs can reduce electricity generation, worsening power shortages and increasing dependence on costly alternative energy sources.
The result is higher production costs for industry and further economic strain.
Yet while the risks are significant, panic is neither necessary nor helpful.
Instead, Zimbabwe should treat this forecast as an opportunity to strengthen resilience rather than simply prepare for disaster relief. Disaster management should begin long before emergency food aid becomes necessary.
Government agencies can intensify drought preparedness programmes, rehabilitate irrigation schemes, expand water harvesting initiatives and strengthen grain reserves.
Extension officers should actively encourage farmers to adopt drought-tolerant seed varieties, diversify crops and implement conservation agriculture techniques that improve soil moisture retention.
The private sector also has an important role to play. Financial institutions can develop products that support climate-smart agriculture.
Agribusinesses can ensure timely availability of drought-resistant seed and livestock feed. Insurance providers can expand weather-index insurance products that help farmers recover from climate shocks.
Communities themselves must also become active participants in preparedness rather than passive recipients of aid.
Household food storage, water conservation, livestock management and diversified income sources all reduce vulnerability during difficult seasons.
Every family should assess how prepared it would be if rainfall failed once again.
One encouraging aspect of the report is that it provides sufficient lead time. Unlike cyclones or flash floods that often arrive with little warning, El Niño develops gradually.
That means authorities have months—not days—to coordinate planning, mobilise resources and educate communities.
Early warning systems only achieve their purpose when they lead to early action.
Zimbabwe's recent experiences have also demonstrated that climate change is making weather patterns increasingly unpredictable.
Seasons once considered reliable are becoming less certain. This reality requires a long-term shift in national planning.
Investment in irrigation infrastructure, dam construction, renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture and weather forecasting should no longer be viewed as optional development projects. They are now essential components of national security.
The international community also has responsibilities. The report notes that many countries in southern Africa are still recovering from the previous El Niño while humanitarian funding has declined.
Reduced donor support should not become an excuse for delayed intervention.
Preventing a humanitarian crisis is invariably less costly than responding after millions have already fallen into hunger.
Regional cooperation will also be vital. Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar face similar risks, making coordinated planning on food security, trade and disaster response increasingly important.
The message from climate scientists is clear: conditions are becoming favourable for another El Niño event that could significantly affect southern Africa. Whether this warning becomes another chapter in Zimbabwe's recurring cycle of drought and emergency aid—or a success story of preparedness—depends on decisions made over the coming months.
History offers valuable lessons. The suffering witnessed during the 2023-24 drought should not simply be remembered; it should shape future action.
Every dam rehabilitated, every irrigation scheme restored, every farmer equipped with climate-smart knowledge and every grain reserve strengthened increases the nation's resilience.
Preparation does not eliminate drought, but it can dramatically reduce its human and economic cost.