The United States stock market has entered 2026 on the back of a powerful multi‑year rally.
The S&P 500 has delivered strong gains for three consecutive years, driven largely by megacap technology, artificial intelligence, and resilient corporate earnings.
Many analysts now describe the environment as a mature bull market rather than an early‑cycle recovery.
For Zimbabwean investors—both at home and in the diaspora—this raises important questions.
Does a fourth year of gains mean it is too late to participate? Are valuations dangerously high?
Or can a disciplined, fundamentals‑driven investor still find opportunities in US markets while managing risk sensibly?
This article aims to unpack those questions in a clear, beginner‑friendly way.
It is written for educational purposes only and is not personal financial advice. Every investor’s circumstances and risk tolerance are different.
When commentators talk about the US bull market entering its fourth year, they are referring to a sustained period in which major indices—such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—have risen from their post‑pandemic lows and continued to notch new highs.
Several structural forces have supported this run:
Earnings growth: Profits for leading US companies have recovered strongly since the Covid‑19 crisis. Tech, communication services, health care, and select industrials have posted robust revenue and earnings.
Productivity and AI optimism: Investors increasingly view artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and automation as long‑term drivers of productivity and profit margins, particularly for large technology firms.
Moderating inflation and stable policy: While inflation spiked earlier in the decade, it has eased from its peak. Central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, have signaled a willingness to keep policy supportive as long as inflation remains in check, which underpins asset prices.
Importantly, a fourth year of gains does not guarantee that the rally will continue indefinitely. It simply tells us that we are in a later stage of the cycle, where both opportunities and risks are amplified.
Why Zimbabwean investors should care
Zimbabwean savers face unique challenges: currency risk, limited local investment instruments, and an economy heavily exposed to commodities, weather shocks, and policy uncertainty. For that reason, many Zimbabweans—especially in the diaspora—already look abroad for diversification and stability.
The US market remains:
The largest and most liquid equity market in the world.
Home to many of the most innovative and profitable companies.
Denominated in US dollars, which many Zimbabweans view as a more reliable store of value than local currencies.
A continuing US bull market offers:
The possibility of capital gains from equity exposure.
Access to global themes (AI, healthcare innovation, semiconductors) that are not easily available on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) or Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX).
A potential counterweight to local economic and currency risks.
But it also brings valuation risk and the danger of chasing momentum at the wrong time.
For Zimbabwean investors willing to take a long‑term view, a mature bull market does not necessarily mean “too late.” It does mean that selection and discipline matter more than ever.
Key principles include:
- Focus on business quality
Rather than trying to trade every short‑term swing, concentrate on:
Companies with strong balance sheets and low net debt.
Persistent free‑cash‑flow generation.
Durable competitive advantages, such as network effects, patents, or dominant market share.
Clear participation in long‑run themes (AI infrastructure, health care innovation, critical semiconductors, essential consumer brands).
For diaspora investors using brokers that provide access to US markets, diversified vehicles such as broad index funds or sector ETFs can also offer exposure without relying on stock‑picking skill alone.
- Use the dollar as a strategic asset
For Zimbabweans saving in or earning US dollars, investing in US securities keeps wealth in the same reference currency. That simplifies planning and can shield against local currency volatility.
However, currency should not be the only reason to buy US assets. A company still needs a sound business and a sensible price.
- Think in terms of decades, not months
A fourth year of gains does increase the risk of a correction in the near term. But for patient investors, such corrections can become opportunities rather than threats—if they are prepared and not over‑leveraged.
Building positions gradually, through contributions over time, can reduce the danger of investing everything at a temporary peak.
Risk: Valuations, concentration, and complacency
The same forces that make the US market attractive also create risk.
- Elevated valuations
Price‑to‑earnings and price‑to‑sales ratios in some segments—especially the largest technology and AI‑linked names—are well above their long‑term averages.
That does not guarantee a crash, but it does mean that:
Future returns may be lower if earnings growth slows.
Sentiment shifts—such as a change in interest‑rate expectations or regulatory shocks—could trigger sharp price declines.
For Zimbabwean investors entering now, the margin of safety is thinner than it was several years ago.
- Heavy index concentration
A small group of very large companies now represents a significant portion of the S&P 500’s total value. This concentration means:
Index performance is heavily influenced by the fortunes of a few names.
If those leaders stumble, broad indices can fall even if smaller companies remain healthy.
Diversification across sectors, regions, and asset classes remains crucial.
- Policy and geopolitical uncertainty
US politics (including the behavior of the current administration), trade relations, and global tensions can all affect markets. A change in Federal Reserve leadership, new tariffs, or geopolitical crises can quickly alter the path of equities, the US dollar, and commodities.
Zimbabwean investors should stay informed but avoid making impulsive, headline‑driven decisions.
Practical considerations for Zimbabwean investors
Access
Depending on where you reside and your regulatory status, access to US markets may come through:
International brokers offering US dollar accounts.
Locally listed instruments that track foreign indices (where available).
Exposure via VFEX to companies earning in hard currency, which may correlate partly with global risk sentiment.
Each route has different costs, regulatory requirements, and risks that must be understood.
Portfolio construction
A conservative, globally aware Zimbabwean investor might:
Allocate a portion of savings to US equities (directly or via funds) for growth and currency stability.
Maintain some exposure to local opportunities—such as high‑quality VFEX or ZSE names—for diversification and familiarity.
Hold a modest allocation to safe‑haven assets like gold, especially given Zimbabwe’s history with inflation and currency shocks.
Keep a sensible cash buffer in hard currency to manage short‑term needs and seize opportunities during market pullbacks.
The exact mix depends on age, income stability, goals, and risk tolerance.
Behavioural discipline
Perhaps the biggest danger in a fourth‑year bull market is emotional decision‑making. Common pitfalls include:
Chasing hot stocks or themes purely because they have recently risen.
Over‑reacting to short‑term volatility or geopolitical headlines.
Ignoring risk management because “the market always bounces back.”
A structured plan—written down and reviewed periodically—can help prevent impulsive moves.
Education and support: Streetwise Economics
Many Zimbabwean investors, particularly in the diaspora, express a similar frustration: they see the opportunities in global markets, but lack a clear framework or trustworthy guidance.
This is where Streetwise Economics aims to add value.
On the Streetwise Economics YouTube channel, I break down US and global market developments, explain key concepts (valuation, risk, diversification), and share lessons from my own trading and investing journey as a Zimbabwean‑Canadian economist.
Through coaching and bootcamps at www.streetwiseeconomics.com, I work with individuals who want to build a disciplined, fundamentals‑based approach that blends long‑term investing with sensible risk management.
All content is strictly educational. The goal is not to provide stock tips, but to help investors think more clearly about capital allocation, especially across currencies and markets.
Conclusion: A time for caution and clarity
A fourth consecutive year of gains in US equities is both a sign of underlying resilience and a reminder that cycles mature. For Zimbabwean investors, the message is not “rush in before it’s too late,” nor is it “stay away because a crash is coming.”
Instead, the message is about balance:
Recognize the strength and depth of US markets and the benefits of dollar‑denominated exposure.
Respect elevated valuations and the potential for volatility.
Build portfolios around business quality, sensible pricing, diversification, and adequate liquidity.
Use global headlines as information—not as a substitute for a sound, long‑term strategy.
In other words, let the US bull market inform your opportunities, but let fundamentals, risk management, and your personal goals guide your decisions.
Nothing in this article should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset.
*Isaac Jonas is a Zimbabwean‑Canadian economist and retail investor, and the founder of Streetwise Economics, an independent platform focused on practical investing, risk management, and market awareness. Based in Canada, he shares insights from global markets through his YouTube channel and written research, helping everyday investors make informed, disciplined decisions about money and capital allocation. For professional enquiries, he can be reached at isaacjonasi@gmail.com. All content is educational, not personal financial advice.