Zimbabwe’s capital markets opened the year on a strong footing, with both the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) and the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) delivering robust gains in January. The month was characterised by sharp index appreciation, a resurgence in trading activity, and continued dominance of heavyweight counters, underscoring renewed investor participation across both bourses.
Market performance overview
For the month of January, the ZSE All Share Index advanced by 28%, accelerating from the 17% gain recorded in December. The rally was largely concentrated in heavyweight counters, with the Top 15 Index rising 33% and the Top 10 Index gaining 30%, highlighting persistent concentration in a narrow set of blue-chip counters.
Momentum was also evident on the VFEX, where the All Share Index gained 19%, a marked improvement from the marginal 1% increase recorded in December. The stronger price performance on both exchanges reflects improving sentiment, particularly toward US dollar–denominated assets and defensive blue chips.
Liquidity, trading activity
Market activity improved significantly during the month. On the ZSE, turnover surged to ZiG914 million, more than doubling from ZiG359 million in December. This represents the highest monthly turnover recorded in over a year and notably exceeds the 2025 peak of ZiG771 million recorded in July.
To put this into context, monthly turnover on the ZSE at the beginning of 2025 stood at approximately ZiG 200 million, highlighting the extent of the January reacceleration in trading volumes.
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On the VFEX, turnover rose sharply to US$10,3 million, up from US$5,3 million in December. While below February 2025’s exceptional US$44 million, January turnover is broadly in line with January 2025’s US$11,6 million, which was the second highest monthly turnover for last year. This suggests that VFEX activity has reverted to levels last seen during its most active periods.
Collectively, these trends point to heightened investor participation across both bourses, albeit still concentrated in a few of liquid counters.
Turnover concentration, leaders
On the ZSE, Econet dominated trading activity, accounting for ZiG450 million of total turnover, followed by Delta with ZiG264 million. This marked a clear reversal from December, when Delta led activity with ZiG209 million, while Econet contributed only ZiG98 million.
On the VFEX, Innscor emerged as the most actively traded counter, contributing 41% of total monthly turnover, with Padenga trailing behind at 35%. In December, Padenga led trading activity, accounting for US$2,2 million of the US$5,3 million monthly turnover.
The data continues to underscore the dominance of heavyweight stocks in driving liquidity, reinforcing the need for broader market participation to sustain depth and resilience as the year progresses.
Price performance, movers
Econet was the standout performer on the ZSE in January, gaining 55%, building on an already strong 87% performance in 2025. The rally was likely supported by shifting sentiments around its proposed delisting from the ZSE and the anticipated listing of Econet InfraCo on the VFEX. Although the circular with greater detail is yet to be released, investor positioning around these developments likely underpinned both price appreciation and elevated activity.
Other notable gainers included BAT, up 51%, and Delta, which gained 41%. Delta’s performance was further supported by its status as the de facto remaining liquid heavyweight on the ZSE post-Econet, attracting incremental flows during the month.
On the VFEX, Axia led the gainers with a 35% increase, followed by SeedCo International, which advanced 32%. SeedCo’s rebound is particularly notable given that it was the only counter to close 2025 in negative territory, suggesting a shift in sentiment.
Axia, which was the least gainer in 2025, also staged a strong recovery, while Caledonia, Innscor, and African Sun maintained the positive momentum established last year.
Market capitalisation trends
From a market capitalisation perspective, Delta has surpassed the US$1 billion threshold on the ZSE, with Econet trailing just below the billion dollar mark.
This further entrenches the dominance of these two counters within the local bourse.
On the VFEX, Innscor remains the largest counter by market cap, followed by Padenga, while Simbisa has moved into third position, displacing WestProp. The shifting rankings reflect both price appreciation and evolving investor preferences within the VFEX universe.
Valuation and outlook
From a valuation standpoint, I am of the view that most blue-chip counters are currently trading near peak levels, offering limited short- to medium-term upside. This assessment applies to several heavyweight stocks across both the ZSE and VFEX, where recent price gains have outpaced near-term earnings growth.
Markets move in cycles, and following such strong rallies, a period of price consolidation or moderate retracement should not be ruled out. In this context, investors may consider locking in gains, rotating into select mid-tier counters with relative value, or holding cash to re-enter at more attractive levels should prices soften.
That said, for long-term investors with a strategic horizon, maintaining exposure to high quality blue chips remains reasonable, particularly where fundamentals remain intact and earnings visibility is strong.
- Taimo is an investment analyst with a talent for writing about equities and addressing topical issues in local capital markets. He holds a First Class Degree in Finance and Banking from the University of Zimbabwe. He is an active member of the Investment Professionals of Zimbabwe community, pursuing the Chartered Financial Analyst charter designation.
