ZIMBABWE’S lithium industry has endured one of the most punishing commodity cycles in recent memory. A collapse in global prices wiped out more than 1 000 direct jobs, delayed several projects and cast doubts over whether the country’s ambitions to become a major battery minerals powerhouse had been built on shifting sands. At the peak of the boom, lithium prices touched dizzy heights and triggered a rush of investment into Zimbabwe, home to some of the world’s largest hard-rock deposits. But when prices plunged from record highs, reality struck. Communities dependent on the sector suffered, companies tightened their belts and questions emerged over whether the industry could survive a prolonged downturn. Yet, against the odds, the mineral that promised to reshape Zimbabwe’s mining landscape has refused to bend. Instead of retreating, investors have doubled down. More than US$2 billion has already been sunk into projects, while another US$1,5 billion is in the pipeline. Producers are pushing ahead with beneficiation projects, betting that the future lies not in exporting raw ore, but in producing higher-value products such as lithium sulphate that feed the global electric vehicle revolution. The industry expects export earnings to climb from about US$500 million last year to more than US$1 billion by December, with executives insisting that the long-term prize remains intact. By 2030, producers believe Zimbabwe can emerge as a globally significant lithium processing centre and, under favourable market conditions, generate up to US$5 billion annually from the battery mineral. Lithium Producers Association of Zimbabwe chairman Innocent Rukweza (IR) says the recent downturn was painful, but temporary. In this interview with our senior reporter Freeman Makopa (FM), he explains why the sector remains bullish, how billions of dollars are still flowing into new projects, and why producers believe Zimbabwe’s lithium story is only just beginning. Below are excerpts from the interview:
FM: How badly did the price collapse affect employment in the sector?
IR: When prices fell, we lost more than 1 000 direct jobs. Entire communities and livelihoods were affected and, if one considers the multiplier effect, the impact becomes much larger. Some projects had to be delayed because of uncertainty and concerns over viability.
FM: What is the current value of lithium investments in Zimbabwe?
IR: Completed projects are now worth about US$2 billion, while another US$1,45 billion worth of investments is in the pipeline. There are also additional projects under evaluation, including facilities to recover by-products such as tantalite, niobium and caesium. The figure of US$3,4 billion excludes exploration spending and corporate social responsibility programmes.
FM: How many lithium projects are operational?
IR: We currently have seven official members within the Lithium Producers Association, although they are at different stages of development. There are also smaller players that we hope will formally register through the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe.
FM: What output is the industry targeting this year?
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IR: We expect exports to exceed US$1 billion this year, up from about US$500 million in 2025. One producer has already started producing lithium sulphate and we are targeting 50 000 tonnes of sulphate production this year. In addition, we expect output of lithium concentrate to reach one million tonnes, provided prices continue to strengthen.
FM: How much revenue has the industry generated despite the collapse in prices?
IR: Over the past 12 months, our rough calculations show that lithium exports generated more than US$500 million. If market conditions continue to improve, we are optimistic that revenues will surpass US$1 billion by December.
FM: How many beneficiation projects are under construction?
IR: Around six projects are underway, most of them focused on lithium sulphate production. Some producers are still completing the first stage, which involves concentrate plants. Most of these facilities are expected to come on stream in 2027 as the industry responds to government’s beneficiation requirements.
FM: What impact has the ban on raw lithium ore exports had?
IR: Before the restrictions, raw lithium exports were worth only about US$60 million. Within a year of moving towards beneficiation, export earnings rose to around US$500 million and have remained at those levels. We believe that by 2030, lithium sulphate exports will grow substantially. Under the right conditions, nothing prevents Zimbabwe from eventually reaching the US$5 billion mark.
FM: Chinese firms dominate Zimbabwe’s lithium sector. How significant is their presence?
IR: This is not unique to Zimbabwe. It is a global phenomenon. More than 80% of production is linked to Chinese-owned projects or ventures involving Chinese partners. In fact, all operational projects are currently run by Chinese investors. They moved aggressively across the supply chain and became dominant players. However, we expect the structure to evolve over time as new participants enter the market, including Bravura and Sandawana, which is linked to Mutapa Investment Fund.
FM: What is the minimum sustainable price for the industry?
IR: We believe lithium carbonate prices need to remain above US$17 500 per tonne. When prices dropped to between
US$14 000 and US$15 000, producers struggled. Anything below US$17 500 becomes economically unsustainable and would place pressure on all projects operating in Zimbabwe.
FM: Zimbabwe wants to become a global lithium hub by 2030. How close is the country to its production targets?
IR: At present, we are only producing about a quarter to a third of our targeted lithium sulphate volumes. We are looking at around 120 000 tonnes, mainly from one producer.
But several sulphate plants are currently being developed and many projects are expected to come online in 2027. We believe 2028 will mark a turning point, bringing Zimbabwe much closer to the
344 000 tonne target. These are not aspirations. The projects are already under construction, making the target highly achievable.
