ZIMBABWE’S fragile economic recovery is coming under renewed strain as rising fuel prices, weaker tobacco earnings and weather-related crop damage tighten pressures on household incomes and food access, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net) warned on Wednesday.
In its latest food security outlook, Fews Net said households across several parts of the country remain under severe pressure after exhausting their own food stocks and facing high market prices.
“Following the peak of the 2025/26 lean season in February/March, deficit-producing areas in the south, east, west and extreme north continue to face crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to depleted own-produced food stocks, high market prices and below-average incomes,” the report said.
IPC refers to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.
The IPC system ranks Phase 3 as a crisis level, where households face food consumption gaps or resort to strategies that undermine their livelihoods.
According to Fews Net, communities in surplus-producing areas are faring slightly better, although many households remain financially strained.
“Surplus-producing areas remain stressed (IPC Phase 2), with households minimally meeting their food needs but struggling to meet their non-food needs,” the report said.
Conditions could improve once the main harvest begins.
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“Near-average harvests expected in April/May are likely to improve household food security outcomes with households transitioning to stressed (IPC Phase 2) in deficit-producing areas and minimal (IPC Phase 1) in surplus-producing areas,” Fews Net said.
Zimbabwe’s agricultural season has been marked by volatile weather. A prolonged dry spell earlier in the year damaged crops across many regions before late rains revived some fields.
But the rains also created new challenges.
“Persistent rains mainly in southern, eastern and north-eastern areas damaged some crops, for example through cob rot and sprouting of grains and pulses, reducing potential yields,” Fews Net said.
Beyond agriculture, rising costs across the economy are deepening pressure on households and businesses.
Fuel price increases introduced in March have already filtered through the economy, driving up transport and production costs.
Following global fuel supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority increased petrol and diesel prices by 39% and 34% respectively compared to February.
Public transport fares quickly followed, rising by between 50% and 100%. The higher fuel costs are also feeding inflation.
“Production and transportation costs have also gone up, given that fuel is a key component in many sectors. Bread prices went up by 10% during the month,” the report said.
Data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency shows blended headline inflation increased by 0,4% between February and March.
“The modest increase, following several months of stability, reflects inflationary pressures driven by fuel price increases,” the report said.
The start of the 2026 tobacco marketing season — traditionally a key source of rural income — could offer some relief. However, weaker prices threaten to blunt the gains.
“Prices are at least 20% lower than last year, according to the Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board,” the report said. “If prices remain lower, this will likely result in below-average incomes from tobacco sales and negatively affect income and access to food and non-food items in tobacco-producing areas.”
Fews Net also warned that global developments could drive further price increases for basic goods.
“Prices of basic food and other commodities and services are also expected to increase over the coming months because of the conflict (in the Middle East), further eroding the purchasing power of low-income households and decreasing their ability to access adequate food,” the report said.
Fertiliser shortages and rising input costs could also weigh on agricultural production in the short term.
Zimbabwe has faced repeated food security shocks in recent years due to climate volatility, currency instability and rising production costs.
While improved rainfall has boosted water levels in some areas and could support post-harvest activities such as horticulture and construction, Fews Net warned that below-average harvests in some regions could force households to turn to markets for staple foods earlier than usual. — Staff Writer.
