On February 28, 2026 the United States and Israel initiated coordinated strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury. This action precipitated a rapid and unprecedented breakdown of order across Middle Eastern airspace. Explosions occurred in major cities, and aerial interceptions resulted in widespread smoke plumes.
This conflict marks aviation’s greatest disruption since Covid-19, exposing the vulnerability of global air connectivity to geopolitical shocks in critical airspace.
In the first 72 hours alone, more than 12 000 flights were cancelled, affecting over one million passengers, according to aviation analytics firm Curium. ITV News reported that nearly 80% of Middle East flights faced disruption in the early phase, while estimates from The Week point to over 52 000 cancellations since the war began.
Major hubs across the region, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Bahrain, Kuwait, Muscat, and Tel Aviv, have all experienced significant operational impacts.
The initial military action has become a prolonged crisis with airspace closures, threats to civilian flights, and route disruptions now affecting the world’s most critical long-haul corridors.
Crucially, this conflict has exposed several organisational flaws, that is reliance on several strategic hubs, overdependence on stable air corridors through geopolitically sensitive regions, and limited resilience planning for multi‑state FIR degradation.
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This is no short-term disruption. It tests the basic assumptions of global aviation, revealing big systemic risks.
The war’s footprint now stretches from Oman to Cyprus and from Azerbaijan to southern Iraq. With air traffic restrictions across Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, airlines have been forced to reroute extensive Europe‑Asia and Africa‑Asia traffic.
The consequences are immediate and costly; longer block times, increased fuel burn, higher crew duty costs, and reduced aircraft utilisation.
For Gulf carriers, whose business models depend on long-haul, east-west connectivity, the impact is particularly severe. Dubai’s strategic location, within an eight-hour radius of six billion people, has historically been a major advantage for global aviation. Currently, this geographic position has become a vulnerability.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi airport shutdowns highlight a key risk: too much global traffic relies on a few hubs, increasing disruption and weakening resilience. One of the most critical and least avoidable factors is the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor through which 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas typically transit.
Recent strikes and threats to shipping have already reduced tanker activity and forced producers to slow exports.
As a result, crude prices have jumped into highly volatile, three‑digit territory, maritime insurance premiums have spiked, and jet fuel prices have risen sharply.
According to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor (March 29, 2026), global jet fuel jumped 12,6% in a week to US$197/barrel (bbl), with year on year increases reaching 118,8%. Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East show the steepest rises.
Jet fuel markets now move mainly on geopolitics, not typical cycles. Jet fuel is now driven by risk premiums, supply disruption fears, refinery bottlenecks, and shipping vulnerability around Hormuz. These price jumps reflect short-term chaos, raising financial uncertainty for airlines.
The situation for airlines has entered a phase of sustained operational and financial difficulty. Jet fuel, which typically accounts for 25% to 35% of an airline’s operating costs, increases sharply during periods of geopolitical volatility.
If the conflict persists, carriers will encounter prolonged fuel price inflation and increased crew utilisation due to extended flight times and closed air corridors.
Most of these additional costs will be transferred to passengers through higher fares and reduced discount availability, even on routes distant from the Gulf region. Fare pressure is expected to intensify in the coming months as airlines attempt to mitigate escalating costs associated with the conflict.
Markets are already feeling the impact. Jet fuel shipments from the Middle East have begun to fall sharply, raising warnings of an imminent supply crunch for Europe.
With flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearing a standstill, European jet fuel imports are forecast to drop to 420 000 barrels per day, a decline of roughly 40% from last week but one and the lowest March level since 2022, according to energy data provider Vortexa.
Some airlines have responded by delaying the purchase of new fuel hedges, anticipating a rapid de-escalation that would normalise prices. This risk management strategy carries significant downside: hedging only partially protects against volatility, and carriers with limited coverage or weak balance sheets are exposed to margin compression, liquidity crises, and cash flow risk if the conflict endures longer than expected.
Equity markets are indicating significant concern. The world’s major publicly listed airlines have collectively lost more than US$50 billion in market capitalisation since the conflict began, according to the Financial Times. This reflects investor expectations of increased operating costs, reduced demand, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Airlines with heavy exposure to the Middle East — either through hub operations or reliance on Europe‑Asia traffic — are under increased scrutiny. Rising fuel prices and operational disruptions complicate fleet planning, capital expenditure commitments, and sustainability investments.
Even carriers geographically distant from the conflict are affected, as markets re-evaluate the industry’s vulnerability to geopolitical-related shocks. Geopolitical risk is now central to airline strategy. This conflict makes it an ongoing calculation for all industry decisions.
Passenger behaviour has shifted rapidly. Demand has declined across the region, particularly in leisure and visiting friends and relatives markets, which are highly sensitive to perceived security risks. Corporate and premium travel, which are essential to network carrier profitability, have also weakened due to schedule uncertainty and the complexities of rerouting.
Air cargo faces parallel pressures. Rerouted flights experience greater fuel burn and longer stage lengths, while disruptions to Middle Eastern ports and shipping lanes compound logistical problems. Time-sensitive goods are being moved to alternative corridors, but these routes are capacity-limited, politically complex, and often subject to payload restrictions.
The impact is uneven. Gulf super-connectors face the greatest disruption, while some European and Asian carriers temporarily benefit from diverted traffic.
However, this is not a straightforward reallocation of demand; the market has contracted overall as costs rise and passengers defer travel. This crisis exposes aviation’s dependence on critical hubs, energy corridors, and a global network reliant on geopolitical stability. Resilience must be rethought; geopolitical risk is now foundational for the sector.
The war in Iran is revealing a reality the industry has long regarded as a background concern: airspace is not guaranteed. It is contested, fragile, and can be lost with little warning. The consequences of neglecting this risk are now evident in cancellations, diversions, and systemic disruption.
The industry’s future depends on redesigning networks, fuel strategies, and scenario plans to reduce reliance on vulnerable corridors. Until then, recovery hinges on resolving the conflict
Mambara is an aviation leader with 26 years of experience in the airline industry, recognised for promoting strategic growth and functional excellence. He holds an MSc in Travel Business Leadership from Leeds Beckett University in the United Kingdom (UK) and currently serves as the UK Country Manager for Royal Brunei Airlines and as a Board Director at the Board of Airline Representatives UK (BAR UK). Adiel is a respected voice in aviation, shaping future talent and innovation through active involvement with industry bodies and academic institutions. His contributions have been recognised by the Institute of Travel & Tourism and by Zimachievers with a Special Recognition Award for professional achievement and leadership. He is also the author of Navigating Turbulence: An Analysis of Airline Failures 2019–2023.