ZIMBABWE imposed Africa’s steepest fuel price hikes during the latest Middle East oil shock, outpacing 54 regional peers as governments scrambled to contain the fallout from escalating tensions linked to the United States-Iran conflict, as per a 63-page report by four influential international institutions.
The findings place Zimbabwe at the centre of a widening debate over the country’s fuel pricing model, taxation regime and the mounting burden being carried by businesses and consumers in one of Africa’s most fragile economies.
The report, titled The Impacts of the Middle East Conflict on African Economies, was jointly prepared by the United Nations Development Programme, the African Union (AU), the Economic Commission for Africa and the African Development Bank (AfDB).
This week, the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority turned down a request for comment.
But the report showed Zimbabwe increasing petrol prices by 39,1% between February 23 and March 23, after fears emerged Iran could move to close one of the world’s most strategic oil transit routes through which nearly a third of global crude shipments pass.
The increase placed Zimbabwe far ahead of second-placed Egypt, which imposed a 14,3% increase during the same period. Morocco followed at 13,9%, while Sierra Leone recorded a 12,3% surge.
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“As of 23rd March 2026, nine countries had reported increases in gasoline pump prices averaging 10,9% compared to 23rd February,” the agencies said.
“In some countries the increase in gasoline prices is in double digits: Zimbabwe 39,1%, Egypt 14,3%, Morocco 13,9%, and Sierra Leone 12,3%. A prolonged conflict risks entrenching fuel price increases and broad-based economic pressures,” they said.
Zimbabwe also led on the diesel front, with a 35% hike. Sierra Leone followed at 22,8%, Morocco recorded a 21,4% increase, Ghana posted an 18,6% rise, while Egypt registered a 17,1% adjustment.
By contrast, Cabo Verde, Lesotho, Tanzania and Rwanda maintained single-digit increases. South Africa — the region’s most industrialised economy — implemented increases of about 1% during the review cycle.
The data has intensified scrutiny over Zimbabwe’s fuel pricing framework. The country’s response to shocks continues to amplify domestic economic vulnerabilities. But the developments come at a delicate moment for Treasury, which this week announced further tax and administrative reviews aimed at improving the business environment.
Christopher Mugaga, chief executive officer of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce, said the four institutions’ report reflected structural distortions embedded within Zimbabwe’s fuel market.
“Yes, Zimbabwe is in the top three. And the major reason why fuel prices in Zimbabwe are relatively higher than the regional peers is due to the free on-board (FOB) price, which the seller charges as they take the fuel either to the ship or to any other mode of transport before it’s shipped to Zimbabwe,” he said.
“So, in terms of FOB price, Zimbabwe is on average 20% above the regional average,” Mugaga said.
“Before you analyse anything, just on FOB, Zimbabwe is already 20% above the average. Then outside that is the excise duty. For almost every litre of fuel, it’s 54 cents. Then you talk of the road levy. All those are costs relatively higher than the regional average too.
“And unlike most of these countries which get balance of payment support from the IMF, and the World Bank, Zimbabwe has no access to all those. So those are generally the reasons why you find fuel price in Zimbabwe is higher than the regional average.”
Researchers at Harare-based advisory firm Equity Axis also raised concerns over the widening disparity between Zimbabwe’s fuel prices and those prevailing in neighbouring countries.
“Zambia imports a substantial portion of its refined petroleum products,” Equity said in a note to investors last week.
“Fuel trucks moving through Harare’s Msasa depots, through Karoi, Makuti and down the Zambezi escarpment to Chirundu, carry a product that ultimately retails at a lower price in Lusaka than in Harare. This is not a marginal pricing discrepancy. It is a structural anomaly, laid bare by April 2026 data.”
Equity said despite Zimbabwe’s recent ethanol blending adjustments, local fuel prices remained substantially above regional averages.
“Following the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority’s price adjustment effective April 18, petrol was reduced to US$2,08 per litre and diesel to US$2,09, after government shifted the ethanol blending mandate from E5 to E20, yet Zimbabwe’s fuel prices remain the highest in the region by a considerable margin,” the advisory said.
“In Zambia, petrol retails at US$1,42 per litre following a tax reduction effective March 31, 2026. The differential stands at US$0,66 per litre, meaning Zimbabwean motorists pay a 46% premium on fuel whose regional supply chain their country physically facilitates.
“Diesel deepens the contrast. Zimbabwe’s April 18 price of US$2,09 compares with Zambia’s US$1,56, a US$0,53 gap, or 34% more expensive in the transit country.
“South Africa, the primary source of refined fuel flowing north, retails diesel at about US$1,42 per litre. Namibia, after a 50% fuel levy reduction effective April 1, 2026, sells petrol at roughly US$1,55.”
The advisory said the broader regional fuel market demonstrated that policy choices were increasingly shaping final pump prices across southern Africa.
The latest increases come as Zimbabwean companies battle one of the harshest operating environments in the region.
Businesses are grappling with subdued consumer demand, persistent liquidity shortages, high borrowing costs and growing pressure from tax authorities.
Over the past two years, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has maintained a tight monetary policy stance aimed at containing inflation and stabilising the local currency.
However, industry executives have repeatedly warned that elevated interest rates and constrained liquidity have accelerated corporate distress across key sectors.