ZIMBABWE’S trade deficit narrowed sharply in the first quarter of this year as export earnings surged on the back of strong gold, tobacco and ferrochrome sales.
The development eased pressure on the country’s external balance, according to analysts.
Data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) showed the trade gap narrowing by 75% year-on-year to US$122,62 million, even as imports continued to rise.
Imports climbed 30% to US$2,89 billion during the three months to March, while exports jumped 59% to US$2,77 billion.
Trade with South Africa, Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partner, remained dominant during the period. Exports to the neighbouring country rose 32% to US$535,52 million, while imports increased 17% to US$1,01 billion.
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Other key export markets included the United Arab Emirates, China, Zambia and Mozambique.
Gold, tobacco, nickel mattes, nickel ores and concentrates, ferrochrome, cigarettes and steel products accounted for the bulk of Zimbabwe’s exports.
Major imports included diesel, petrol, maize, crude soya bean oil, petroleum gases and durum wheat.
Farai Chigora, a senior lecturer at Africa University’s College of Management and Business Sciences, said the figures reflected Zimbabwe’s long-standing economic structure, where imports remain critical to supporting production and essential services.
“Our exports are increasing, but not yet at the same level needed to offset imports, meaning we remain in deficit. It shows that the economy is trying to grow, but many of the goods we are importing are still critical basics linked to healthcare, food services and other essential sectors,” he said.
“At the same time, we are gradually trying to build our own industries and strengthen domestic production through localisation. That is part of the reason why the situation remains like this.
“For now, we are importing a significant amount of goods, even as we work towards improving production to levels that can match or even exceed exports. Realistically, this cannot be avoided at this stage.”
Chigora said Zimbabwe could also be importing machinery at a faster pace than current output growth.
“The production coming from imported equipment is not yet sufficient to sustain the country or add enough value to exports. This applies across sectors, including mining and manufacturing,” he said. “So, it becomes a matter of time, increased investment and improving efficiency through technology, AI and other innovations.”
In the 2026 National Budget, Finance minister Mthuli Ncube projected exports would rise 5,8% to US$10,2 billion this year, driven by higher earnings from gold, platinum group metals, tobacco and steel.
Imports are projected to increase 4,2% to US$10 billion, supported by demand for energy, raw materials and machinery.
To reduce exposure to commodity price volatility and external shocks, Ncube said government was pursuing a multi-pronged strategy centred on export diversification, value addition and beneficiation.
“Efforts will also be on upgrading domestic mineral processing and refining capacity, thereby transforming raw mineral exports into semi-finished and finished products,” he said.
“This will stimulate the development of industrial hubs and value chains, maximising domestic economic benefits, enhancing competitiveness and creating downstream employment opportunities.”
Economists said the narrowing trade gap offers temporary relief to Zimbabwe’s external accounts, but warned that the country remains heavily dependent on primary commodity exports that are vulnerable to global price swings.
Analysts noted that strong gold earnings have historically masked deeper structural weaknesses, including limited industrial capacity, low manufacturing competitiveness and a heavy reliance on imported fuel, food and machinery.
The continued dominance of raw mineral exports also means Zimbabwe captures limited value from its resources, with beneficiation and industrial processing still lagging behind regional peers.
Across Southern Africa, governments are increasingly pushing for value addition and export diversification as commodity-dependent economies face volatile global markets and shifting trade patterns.
South Africa, the region’s most industrialised economy, has intensified efforts to rebuild manufacturing capacity and expand exports into African markets under the African Continental Free Trade Area. Zambia is ramping up copper production and seeking new investment into mineral processing and battery value chains linked to the global energy transition.
Botswana has continued leveraging diamond beneficiation policies to retain more value locally, while Mozambique is positioning itself as a major energy exporter through large-scale liquefied natural gas projects and expanded coal exports.
Regional economists say the broader southern African trend reflects growing pressure on governments to move beyond exporting raw commodities and build domestic industries capable of generating jobs, foreign currency and stronger tax revenues.
For Zimbabwe, however, persistent power shortages, currency instability, infrastructure gaps and limited access to long-term capital continue to weigh on industrial expansion, despite improving export earnings.
While the latest trade figures point to stronger foreign currency inflows, analysts said sustained improvement would depend on whether the country can convert mineral wealth and agricultural exports into broader industrial growth.