Advanced economies are circling Zimbabwe again. This time, the stakes are higher. Europe is quietly retreating from a 26-year hard line stance, while China is tightening its grip on the country’s most strategic minerals.
Beijing is no longer probing but executing. Chinese firms dominate Zimbabwe’s lithium sector, committing billions of dollars in acquisitions and processing plants. Europe, locked in its own energy transition, is scrambling to secure alternative supply chains.
This is no longer diplomacy, but global resource contest. Zimbabwe is sitting at the centre of it, but remains dangerously unprepared. The country does not have a verified, modern valuation of its mineral wealth. In a sector expected to generate tens of billions globally over the next decade, Zimbabwe is negotiating blindly.
The government must urgently commission a comprehensive geological survey, which must be independently verified. Without it, Zimbabwe is effectively handing over strategic assets at discounted value. The urgency is amplified by lithium. Global demand is exploding, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage. Prices surged more than 400% between 2020 and 2022, and although volatility followed, long-term demand remains locked in. China has moved with precision.
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Company Ltd has taken full control of Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe, one of the region’s most valuable lithium assets. Other Chinese-linked investments now stretch across Bikita, Arcadia and beyond. This is consolidation at speed.
Europe, meanwhile, is re-entering the field, under pressure to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains. That creates a narrow but powerful window. It is a bidding moment Zimbabwe cannot afford to waste. Yet Harare continues to behave like a price taker. This must change. Zimbabwe cannot continue exporting raw minerals while importing finished products at multiples of the original value. Lithium concentrate leaves the country cheap, and batteries return expensive. No serious investor should be allowed to extract strategic minerals without clear commitments to local processing, refining and industrial participation. This is where jobs are created, and where real GDP growth happens. The country must break its growing dependence on a single dominant player. Overconcentration weakens negotiating power. It locks the country into unfavourable terms.
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A deliberate diversification strategy — balancing China, Europe and other entrants — would restore leverage and introduce competitive pricing. Right now, that leverage has been surrendered.
The governance deficit is just as severe. Mining revenues remain opaque, contracts are hidden and leakages are widely suspected but rarely quantified. Billions could be slipping through the system over time. Transparency is not optional but a necessity.
Publishing contracts, enforcing compliance, and strengthening oversight institutions would immediately tighten revenue flows and rebuild public trust.
Finally, Zimbabwe must stop consuming its mineral wealth and start converting it. Every dollar generated should be traced into infrastructure, power generation and industrial capacity.