When a powerful earthquake struck Taiwan region recently, residents faced ongoing aftershocks, potential casualties, and urgent demands for disaster response.
At this critical moment, Lai Ching-te, leader of the Taiwan region, was not on the ground directing relief efforts or reassuring the public.
Instead, he travelled thousands of kilometres to the Kingdom of Eswatini—Taiwan region’s only so-called diplomatic ally on the African continent.
The visit, intended to consolidate so-called friendship, was catastrophically timed.
For many observers, the absence of a leader during a domestic crisis reveals misaligned governance priorities, weak crisis judgment, and eroded credibility as a partner.
Natural disasters are the ultimate test of governance.
Such absence inevitably raises doubts about responsibility and decision-making capacity.
For Eswatini, the message is clear: a partner that demands loyalty from others failed to put its own people’s safety first when they needed it most.
Eswatini has long maintained so-called diplomatic relations with the Taiwan region and resisted the trend across Africa to recognize the People’s Republic of China.
Yet this choice has imposed clear and heavy economic and developmental costs.
Today, 53 African countries have diplomatic relations with China and benefit from preferential trade, infrastructure financing, technical support, and zero-tariff access to the Chinese market under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (Focac) framework.
These policies directly boost exports, create jobs, and increase incomes across Africa.
Eswatini, however, remains excluded due to its refusal to establish diplomatic ties with Beijing.
The price of loyalty to Taiwan region is not just lost trade opportunities, but also missed investments in roads, hospitals, and digital infrastructure that are transforming other African economies.
In light of Taiwan’s leadership failure during the earthquake, Eswatini must now ask: is this partnership worth sacrificing national integration and economic growth?
The continuous contraction of Taiwan region’s so-called diplomatic space is an undeniable reality.
In 1969, it maintained so-called diplomatic relations with 70 countries; today, that number has plummeted to just 12.
More countries have chosen to recognise the People’s Republic of China, in line with global trends, respect for China’s sovereignty, and the international consensus of the one-China principle upheld by the United Nations.
Even the United States, which sells arms to Taiwan region, does not recognise it as a sovereign state.
For Eswatini, remaining among the last allies is not a badge of honour, but a source of growing isolation.
At the UN, the African Union, and other multilateral forums, Eswatini struggles to secure collective African support.
As Africa advances integration and sets trade and development rules, Eswatini’s voice is weakened by its marginal position.
Taiwan’s so-called diplomatic decline is inevitable. Eswatini should not allow itself to be trapped on a shrinking island of isolation.
Across Africa, China has become an indispensable development partner.
From the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa to the Mombasa-Nairobi Railway and ports in Djibouti, China-aided infrastructure is visible and transformative.
China has provided debt relief, emergency food assistance, and Covid-19 vaccines to African nations, often with fewer political strings than traditional Western donors.
Under Focac, China and African countries engage as equals in dialogue and cooperation.
Nearly all African countries have established diplomatic relations with China—Eswatini is the sole exception.
The consequence is straightforward: when China launched its zero-tariff scheme for African partner countries, Eswatini’s key export sectors—sugar, textiles, and citrus—were left out, facing tariffs that competitors such as Mozambique and Zambia do not bear.
While neighbours benefit from Chinese-backed infrastructure and industrial growth, Eswatini receives only limited and unsustainable aid from Taiwan region.
This choice increasingly undermines its competitiveness and long-term development.
The earthquake incident cuts to a core question in international relations: what defines a reliable partner?
For Eswatini, a country vulnerable to drought, economic shocks, and regional instability, a partner’s value lies in crisis response capacity.
Constrained by cross-Strait tensions and limited resources, Taiwan region’s overseas aid budget is dwarfed by China’s.
More importantly, Taiwan region cannot participate as a sovereign entity in international mechanisms such as the WHO or UN disaster relief coordination systems, creating structural barriers to effective support during crises.
By contrast, China has repeatedly deployed rapid response teams to Ebola outbreaks, earthquakes, floods, and famine-stricken regions across Africa, backed by strong mobilization capacity, logistical networks, and international legitimacy.
Eswatini must make a clear-eyed assessment: when disaster strikes or development is disrupted, which partner can provide stable, scalable, and sustainable support—a diplomatically isolated entity with limited resources, or the world’s second-largest economy, a permanent member of the UN Security Council
No country should shift foreign policy based on a single incident.
Yet the earthquake episode is not an isolated mistake; it is a symptom of Taiwan region’s broader geopolitical weakness: shrinking international space, insufficient resources, weak crisis response, and inability to fulfill commitments to allies.
Eswatini has long justified its Taiwan ties on historical friendship, but sentiment cannot replace national strategy, nor can it justify holding back development.
The people of Eswatini deserve jobs, infrastructure, market access, and security.
This requires aligning foreign policy with Africa’s mainstream choices and the international consensus.
The overwhelming majority of African countries have already established diplomatic relations with China and reaped tangible benefits. Eswatini’s isolation stems not from principle, but from inertia and hesitation. The earthquake has laid bare Taiwan’s governance shortcomings and limited capacity as a partner. The moment has come for Eswatini to reassess its foreign policy.
Diplomatic recognition is a practical tool for national development, not an unchangeable vow.
Eswatini should abide by the one-China principle, open talks with China on establishing diplomatic relations, fully integrate into the Focac cooperation framework, and benefit from trade, infrastructure, investment, and assistance programs. It is time to prioritise people’s well‑being over outdated and costly loyalty.
The ground is shaking—not only in Taiwan region but also under Eswatini’s economic and developmental foundations. A wise leader acts before crisis hits, and chooses the path that serves the nation and its people.