The first days of March 2026 have reminded the world how quickly geopolitics can shake financial markets. As war escalates between the US Israel coalition and Iran, missiles are flying in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz is at risk, oil prices have jumped, and Wall Street has just logged some of its sharpest sell offs in years.
Before we go further, a clear reminder: this article is for educational purposes only. It is not personal financial advice. I’m sharing how I think about these events as a long term, fundamentals focused investor. Everyone’s situation is different, so please do your own research and speak to a professional adviser before making decisions.
If you’d like to hear more of my views in real time, I’m doing live commentary on the Streetwise Economics YouTube channel, and you can also find deeper insights and coaching programs at www.streetwiseeconomics.com.
What Is Happening in the Middle East?
In late February and early March, the conflict between the US Israel alliance and Iran widened dramatically:
- US and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader and hit military and energy related targets across the country.
- Iran and allied groups, including Hezbollah, have retaliated with drone and missile attacks on US and regional assets, including infrastructure and shipping lanes.
- Iranian commanders have warned that the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil and a large share of liquefied natural gas flows—could be closed or at least heavily disrupted.
Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent crude jumped roughly 10% to around 80 US$ per barrel, with several analysts warning that prices could spike toward 100 US$ if the Strait remains effectively shut or key production facilities are hit.
A friend of mine living in the UAE told me petrol prices at the pump have already moved higher. That matches what the data is showing: fuel costs across the Gulf are rising, and analysts expect US gasoline to climb above US$3 a gallon as global crude prices feed through.
How are US stocks reacting?
On Wall Street, the reaction has been sharp but focused:
- The Dow Jones has plunged more than 700–1,000 points in several sessions, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have dropped around +1% today at time of writing on March 3 as worries about a prolonged war and higher inflation hit risk appetite.
- Airlines and travel stocks are among the hardest hit as thousands of flights are cancelled or rerouted around the region, raising fuel and operating costs.
- Shipping related names are also under pressure as tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding days to journeys.
- In contrast, energy producers, some defence contractors, and companies linked to commodities have held up better, or even gained, as investors price in a “war premium.”
Volatility has jumped. The VIX—Wall Street’s “fear index”—spiked more than 20% to its highest level in months as traders rushed to buy options for protection.
So we have a classic risk off move: oil up, safe haven demand up, economically sensitive stocks down.
Why this matters for Zimbabwean investors
For Zimbabweans—both at home and abroad—there are three main channels through which this crisis matters:
- Energy and inflation: higher global oil prices eventually raise fuel and transport costs in Zimbabwe, directly or via our neighbours. That can push up prices of food and imported goods.
- Global risk sentiment: when US markets sell off and investors become nervous, they often pull money from emerging and frontier markets. That can reduce capital flows to Africa and increase volatility in assets such as VFEX and regional stocks.
- Currency and store of value choices: spikes in oil and war fears tend to strengthen the US dollar and gold, which influence how Zimbabweans think about holding value—whether in ZiG, USD, gold, or offshore assets.
However, it’s important to stress: the US economy is more insulated from oil shocks than Europe or parts of Asia because America now produces a large share of its own oil and gas. My friend’s experience in the UAE of feeling the squeeze at the pump illustrates how much more exposed the Gulf region is, while in the US and Canada, domestic production acts as a partial cushion.
Short term chaos, long term opportunities
As a long term investor, I don’t try to guess where the S&P 500 or oil will be next week. In crises like this, price moves are driven by headlines, emotion, and trading flows, not careful analysis. History shows that many geopolitical shocks—no matter how dramatic—tend to have short lived direct effects on broad markets unless they fundamentally change global growth or the financial system.
Instead, I ask a different question:
“Which good businesses are becoming cheaper because of fear, even though their long term earning power is largely intact?”
The current sell off is hitting almost everything at once. On days when the Dow is down 1,000 points, even high quality companies with little direct exposure to the Middle East or oil can drop 3–5% simply because investors are de risking across the board.
For a patient, fundamentals focused investor, that’s where opportunity begins.
What I look for in this environment
Here is the simple framework I’m using as I watch US stocks from a Zimbabwean perspective:
- Separate directly exposed sectors from indirectly hit names
- Directly exposed (higher risk in this crisis):
— Airlines, cruise lines, and tourism companies reliant on Middle East routes.
— Companies with critical infrastructure or data centres in the Gulf region.
— Highly leveraged firms that can’t handle an oil driven cost spike.
- Indirectly hit (potential opportunity):
— Strong global consumer brands with diversified revenue and solid balance sheets.
— High quality technology and health care firms whose revenues are not tightly tied to oil prices.
— Cash rich, low debt companies whose shares are nonetheless being sold in the general panic.
If the market sells everything indiscriminately, the second group is where I start hunting.
- Focus on balance sheets and cash flow
In uncertain times, I want companies that can:
- Survive a period of slower growth and higher input costs.
- Fund operations and investment without relying heavily on expensive new debt.
- Continue paying dividends or buying back shares without stretching their finances.
This means screening for low net debt, strong interest coverage, and consistent free cash flow.
- Respect valuation—even in a panic
A falling share price doesn’t automatically make a stock cheap. I still compare valuation metrics—like price to earnings and price to free cash flow—against long term averages and peers.
However, when fear is high, good businesses can trade at reasonable or even attractive multiples again, after being expensive for months. That’s when I start adding slowly, knowing that prices might still go lower in the short term.
- Use a gradual, dollar cost averaging mindset
Because no one can call the bottom, I prefer to:
- Buy in small steps rather than all at once.
- Spread entries over weeks or months.
- Keep some cash aside to take advantage of deeper dips if they come.
This approach reduces regret if markets fall further and keeps my focus on the long term thesis.
Not political—just about risk and return
It is easy to get pulled into political arguments in moments like this. My focus, however, is not who is right or wrong in the conflict, but what it means for risk, prices, and long term returns.
As investors, we can’t influence foreign policy, but we can choose how we react:
- Panic and sell everything, or
- Stay calm, review our portfolios, and selectively buy quality assets when others are fearful.
For Zimbabwean investors, especially those with access to US markets through diaspora accounts or offshore platforms, this may be one of those moments where great businesses become available at better prices—as long as we manage risk properly and avoid using leverage.
Where to follow my ongoing views
Because the situation is fluid, I’m sharing more frequent, short updates on my Streetwise Economics YouTube channel—looking at:
- Which sectors are being hit hardest.
- Whether the sell off is starting to create real value in specific names.
- How I’m thinking about gold, oil, and the US dollar in relation to Zimbabwean and regional investors.
For those who want structured guidance, including building a long term plan and learning how to analyse companies for themselves, you can explore my coaching and programs at www.streetwiseeconomics.com.
Final thoughts
Missiles in the Gulf and volatility in New York are a reminder that markets live at the intersection of economics and geopolitics. We cannot control the news, and we cannot reliably predict the next move in the S&P 500.
What we can control is our framework:
- Focus on strong businesses with solid balance sheets.
- Pay attention to valuation, not just price action.
- Add gradually during fear, rather than chase euphoria.
- Keep enough cash and diversification to sleep at night.
For Zimbabwean investors watching events from afar, this crisis is both a risk and—if approached with discipline—a chance to own pieces of high quality global companies at lower prices.
- Isaac Jonas is a Zimbabwean-Canadian economist, trader, and founder of Streetwise Economics — a global platform blending real-world experience with financial education for emerging market investors. Based in Canada, he shares financial education through his YouTube channel and social media. His website: www.streetwiseeconomics.com and his email isacjonasi@gmail.com. Disclaimer: Educational content only — not financial advice.