SOUTH Africa, which accounts for nearly a third of Zimbabwe’s US$1.36 billion diaspora remittances in the first half of 2026, has emerged as the biggest threat to the country’s remittance inflows as growing anti-immigrant sentiment resulted in over 108 000 Zimbabwean migrants returning home.
According to the government, as of July 18, a total of 33 855 returnees had been repatriated through government arrangements, while an estimated 74 511 had self-repatriated, bringing the total number of returnees to over 108 000.
A new FBC Securities (FBCS) half-year economic report identifies the South African migration crisis as a key downside risk to Zimbabwe’s external inflow outlook.
In the report, South Africa accounted for aUS$419.77 million, or 30.78%, of Zimbabwe’s US$1.36 billion diaspora remittances during the first half of 2026—placing it ahead of the United Kingdom, which contributed US$387.19 million—according to information the broker sourced from the central bank.
“The recent migration crisis in South Africa has introduced a new downside risk to Zimbabwe’s external inflow outlook.
“Reports indicate that tens of thousands of Zimbabweans have returned from South Africa since late May 2026 following heightened anti-immigrant tensions, repatriation arrangements and increased pressure on undocumented migrants,” FBCS said in the report.
“Publicly reported figures rose from around 60,000 returnees in early July to nearly 100 000 by mid-July, while some official commentary has suggested that the number could rise materially if more Zimbabweans in South Africa elect to return.
“This development is economically significant because South Africa remains Zimbabwe’s largest single remittance source in the H1 2026 data.”
The impact, however, is unlikely to be linear, FBCS noted.
“Many returnees may have been lower-income or irregularly employed workers with limited remitting capacity, while a meaningful portion of Zimbabwe’s higher-value remittances may continue to come from more formally employed migrants who remain in South Africa, the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia, Canada and other developed markets,” FBCS said.
“In addition, the crisis could temporarily lift remittances from migrants who remain abroad as they support returning relatives, finance relocation costs, or invest precautionary savings at home.”
FBCS said this means headline remittances may hold up in the short term.
“The more important risk is medium-term. If returnees are unable to reintegrate quickly into domestic employment, self-employment or productive enterprise, Zimbabwe could face a dual shock: lower future remittance inflows from South Africa and higher domestic demand for jobs, housing, schooling, health services and social protection,” FBCS said.
“This would place pressure on already constrained public services and could dampen household spending in remittance-dependent areas. “Conversely, if returnees bring skills, savings, networks and business equipment, the shock could be partially converted into a domestic productive opportunity, especially in agriculture, construction, logistics, services and small enterprise development.”
To put that potential loss in perspective based on the half-year statistics, a 10% decline in the South Africa corridor results in a US$42 million loss, while a 20% decline equals US$84 million, and a 30% drop results in a US$126 million loss.
“While these figures are scenario estimates rather than forecasts, they illustrate that even a partial disruption to the South Africa corridor could be material for household liquidity and external-sector resilience,” FBCS said.
The broker called for the continued monitoring of the South Africa corridor separately, tracking monthly remittance receipts from South Africa, average transaction size, number of transactions and formal-channel usage to detect early deterioration.
“Assess household consumption sensitivity: Identify sectors and geographies most exposed to South Africa remittances, particularly education, retail, rentals, transport and informal trade,” FBCS added.
“Support formal remittance channels: Encourage lower-cost, digital and bank-linked transfer options to retain flows within the formal system despite migration disruption.
“Convert returnee pressure into productive capacity: Where possible, align returning skills and savings with SME finance, agriculture value chains, construction, logistics and export-oriented activities.”
Lastly, FBCS called for a diversified diaspora strategy, exploring the United Kingdom, United States, Australia, Canada, Ireland, and other markets.
“The concern is not that more than 108,000 Zimbabweans have returned, but whether those returning are the same people who were regularly sending money home,” an economist who did not want to be named said.
“The economic risk, therefore, in my opinion, depends on how much income is lost, how many migrants remain employed in South Africa, and whether returnees are able to find productive employment in Zimbabwe.
“That would be key to me.”