THE Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) is poised to unveil its 2026 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) this month, promising a shift from crisis mode to long-term stability.
With inflation levels hitting their lowest in nearly 30 years and the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) exchange rate and inflation stabilising, all eyes are on how this policy will shape the future.
As the column anticipates the details, the backdrop reveals steady money supply growth, a gradual move toward rate convergence, and a sustained disinflation trajectory. Explore this visual data, and stay informed!
With the visual context provided above (data sourced from the RBZ, Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency, and the column’s own market research), here is a brief overview of key issues this column expects to see included or addressed by the upcoming 2026 MPS.
Strict monetary targetting
The column expects the 2026 MPS to reaffirm a hawkish stance with no central bank financing of government expenditure. This policy has been instrumental in breaking the historic inflation-exchange-rate feedback loop, allowing the ZiG to remain fully backed by reserves.
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Improved exchange rate discovery
The column anticipates that RBZ will implement new measures to reform and deepen the current willing-buyer willing-seller interbank model.
For example, allowing commercial banks to lead the price discovery process, with the RBZ stepping in only to smooth out extreme volatility using its reserves. This is crucial for eliminating market pricing distortions and fostering the indifferent acceptance and use of the ZiG by all economic agents.
Calibrated benchmark rate
With annual inflation falling to 4,1% in January 2026, the column expects a downward revision to the 35% RBZ policy rate.
This projection is based on earlier signals from the Monetary Policy Committee that interest rates will gradually normalise once low inflation becomes entrenched, supporting private-sector credit and economic growth goals.
Therefore, the column predicts that the half-year policy guidance will fall within the (15-20%) range. The reasoning is that, even though ZiG annual inflation reached record levels, ZiG use across the economy remains limited, regaining public trust is a long-term process, and economic outlook risks continue to lean downward. In such cases, the column anticipates gradual monetary policy easing, as rapid easing could undermine the progress made so far.
SRRs adjustments
Currently, statutory reserve requirement (SRR) ratios are 30% for call and demand deposits and 15% for savings and time deposits. With sustained exchange rate and price stability in both currencies, the column expects a review to lower these SRR ratios. This move will help reduce banks' opportunity costs (since most SRRs are non-interest-bearing), increase the utilisation of savings in the economy, and lower the cost of financial intermediation.
Independent ZiG reserve audits
The main reason for public skepticism is the fear that the ZIG will eventually be overprinted beyond its backing. To address this historic concern, the column expects the 2026 MPS to institutionalise third-party verification by creating a real-time ZiG reserve transparency framework.
This involves moving beyond internal accounting or quarterly reports to a legal requirement for monthly audits of ZiG reserve assets by an independent, globally recognised audit firm.
By providing verifiable proof that every ZiG is fully-backed by liquid assets, the RBZ shifts from requesting public trust to offering concrete proof of value.
This increased transparency helps prevent speculative attacks on the currency and narrows the parallel market premium.
High-quality banknote redesign
The column expects the 2026 MPS to provide updates on the release of redesigned ZiG banknotes and the introduction of high-denomination banknotes.
Improving the quality and design of ZiG notes to align with global standards and issuing higher-denomination banknotes are key to boosting public confidence and transactional convenience.
Digital ZiG integration
The column anticipates that the RBZ will implement new measures to further increase the use of electronic ZiG currency, which already accounts for over 60% of transactions.
The bank’s recent strategy highlights digitalisation and modernisation of the national payment system to decrease dependence on physical cash and the US dollar.
Export surrender enforcement
Although this column would like to see a significant reduction in capital controls, such as surrender requirements, to help speed up ZiG price discovery, it expects a continued strong commitment by RBZ to maintain the current 30% threshold.
The central bank contends that this mechanism has been decisive in building its US$1,2 billion reserve chest, providing the liquidity needed to intervene in the market and stabilise the ZiG.
Institutionalisation mono-currency
This column foresees the RBZ specifying milestones for transitioning to a mono-currency system. Clearly defined benchmarks, such as keeping inflation below 5% for 36 months or achieving six months of import cover, must be met before phasing out the US dollar. This eliminates the element of surprise. For long-term capital commitments, investors prefer a predictable timeline over sudden policy shifts.
Financial sector innovation
The RBZ will likely prioritise responsible innovation to ensure that fintech growth does not compromise financial stability. Therefore, the column anticipates that the RBZ will unleash a stronger innovation sandbox, giving startups a platform to test AI, blockchain and digital lending products.
Additionally, in line with its medium-term strategic plan, which emphasises digitalisation to boost efficiency and reduce transaction costs, the 2026 MPS may introduce guidelines for Application Programming Interface standardisation to promote interoperability between banks and fintechs.
Climate risk management
Climate change poses a significant threat to financial stability in Zimbabwe, particularly for agricultural loan portfolios. Currently, banks are required to align their financial statements with the Climate Risk Management Guideline 01-2023.
The column expects the RBZ to implement stricter half-yearly reporting on institutional climate risk profiles. Additionally, it anticipates that the RBZ will introduce a Green Credit Facility that offers low-interest loans to agro-producers and SMEs adopting climate-resilient technologies.
Furthermore, with only 32% of banks having fully adopted board-approved sustainable finance frameworks as of the end of 2025, the column expects the 2026 MPS to set a deadline for 100% compliance.
Cybersecurity, resilience
With the increase in digital transactions, the RBZ needs to adopt a proactive approach to managing cyber threats. As such, this column expects the 2026 MPS to require compliance with the Cybersecurity and Resilience Guidelines, which will mandate financial institutions to use advanced security tools to block unauthorised network traffic and prevent malware.
Additionally, because of the April 2026 re-registration deadline for companies, the RBZ will likely implement automated Know Your Business procedures, including QR-coded document validation, to combat money laundering and fraud.
Conclusion
The expectations outlined rely on factors within the RBZ’s control, but rebuilding public trust in our monetary system and the ZiG will inevitably take time.
Trust is fundamentally rooted in utility, when the government accepts its own currency for essential services, the public will follow suit. To accelerate this process, it is crucial for Treasury to implement a complementary fiscal policy that broadens the scope of mandatory ZiG payments to include fuel duties, corporate taxes, and all public-sector user fees such as tolls, utility charges, and passport fees.
Increasing transactional demand for ZiG will not only expedite formalisation but also reinforce the government’s confidence in the currency’s stability, ultimately fostering a more resilient and trusted monetary environment.
Sibanda, an experienced economist and consultant at Mqabuko Capital, provides independent economic and financial insights that are his own and not necessarily those of his employer. Reach him at bravosibanda@gmail.com.